I do this every year.
I write a post with my
prediction of the upcoming season and it always has the same central there…
‘if’.
Long time readers will
remember how this works… if David Wright comes
back healed and returns to all-star status’. I think I used that one four
times.
First, a look at the
changes on the 25-man:
There were major departures here. Jerry Blevens, Jay Bruce, Jose Reyes, and Astrubel
Cabrera were replaced by Jerry Blevens, Jay Bruce, Jose Reyes, and
Astrubel Cabrera. No… wait…
Lucas Duda was replaced with Adrian Gonzalez.
Jason Vargas was added to the rotation.
Neil Walker was replaced by Todd Frazier, who will play third and move Cabrera to
second.
Curtis
Granderson will be replaced by a combination of Juan Lagares
and Brandon Nimmo.
Addison Reed was replaced with Anthony Swarzak.
So, the net gain/loss
is:
Gains: Gonzalez,
Frazier, Swarzak, Vargas, new medical dues, new manager, new coaches
Loses: Duda, Walker,
Granderson, Reed, old medical dudes, new manager, new coaches
This is obviously going to come down to the same thing we’ve
talked about every spring in these posts… health.
We gain a guy that pitched 18 wins last season, a first
baseman that produced 18/90 in 2016, and a third baseman that hit 27/76 last
year and 40/98 in 2016.
Can they stay healthy and produce these kind of numbers in
2018?
But health concerns go beyond this.
What I don’t worry about is both the starting and relief
pitching. There is plenty of depth in the rotation right now and Sandy Alderson seems to have created the same levels
of depth in the top system levels of the pen.
For me, the whole health thing revolves around Michael Conforto. He was a budding superstar when he
went down as well as the closest thing this team has for a leadoff hitter. We’re
a good team with him, but we’re a tad short with him on the shelf.
But, beyond that, let me ask you a question.
If all the ex-Mets discussed here were still Mets, and they
still had at least one year left on their deal, would you trade Duda, Walker,
Granderson, and Reed for Gonzalez, Frazier, Swarzak, and Vargas?
Division Forecast
I’m not going to spend any time here trying make any of think
that the Washington Nationals won’t win the division this year. They will.
I’m also not going to spend any time telling you that the
Florida Marlins will finish anywhere but last in our division. They will.
What I will tell you is what we do against the other two
teams, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will decide if we become a
wild card team.
The Phiilies really haven’t done much since the 2017 season
ended. They released P Make Appel, traded P Nick Burdi to Pittsburgh (for futures), and signed P Francisco Rodriguez, 2B Ryan
Flaherty, OF Collin Cowgill, P Josh Tois, P Drew Hutchinson,
and P Fernando Abad to minor league contracts.
Atlanta started the off-season by dumping their General
Manager and cleaning out their international scouting team.
In October, they exercised an option on C Tyler Flowers, but declined an option on former Cy Young pitcher R.A. Dickey.
Their one big deal came in December when they traded OF Matt Kemp to the Dodgers. In return, they received 1B Adrian ‘don’t unpack’ Gonzalez, pitchers Scott Kazmir and Brandon
McCarthy, and IF Charles Culberton.
Gonzalez was released three days later and signed with the
Mets.
The only deals done so far this year was the releasing of P Mauricio Cabrera, and agreeing to terms with P Peter Moylan.
As I said earlier, I’m not going to spend any time further
discussing the Nats (though they too have done meh in the off season).
I also have not danced in the halls regarding any of the Mets
additions; however, collectively, they have vastly improved their team verses
the other teams in their division.
Their workingman’s approach to improving their team will pay
off more as a lump sum move rather than an individual return.
Mack Predicitons
These are random and, as usual, pulled out of my arse.
1. Mets fans will be thrilled with the
full year production of both Noah Syndergaard and
Jacob deGrom. They will both be members of the All-Star
team and easily finish in the top 10 Cy Young finalists.
2. P Zack Wheeler
will once again disappoint, spend the first half of the season on and
off the DL and will be DFA’s shortly after the All-Star game.
3. 2018 will not be the year of OF Michael Conforto. His slow recovery starts with ‘cautious
optimism’ but ends with a mid-season shut down for the remainder of the season.
4. His replacement, Juan Lagares, will go
on to being one of league leaders in dWAR, and will justify every dollar the
Mets paid him in 2018.
5. ‘Pickup of the year’ will go to Todd Frazier, who will put together a year in the range of
20/80/.275.
6. ‘Dud of the dealing’ will go to Adrian Gonzalez, who will be A-Gone by June.
7. There will not be any ‘rookie of the
year’ on this team. There is no room for those youngsters here.
Overall, the Mets will
finish second in the division, but will once again fall short of being the top
two runner ups in the National League.
At one point this team
is going to have to try and match the Nationals in talent and I’m just not
confident that will ever happen under the current ownership.
I have a somewhat related article coming out tomorrow...just whipped it up in my office on my LIRR train this morning.
ReplyDeleteTechnically, Grandy is being replaced by...Decoders. Assuming he is healthy, that is a huge upgrade.
May Zach prove all the naysayers wrong....and there are plenty of them, after he only played as much as David Wright did the past 3 seasons.
I wouldn't write us off so fast vs. the Nationals....talent-wise,xwe are close if healthy.
And yep, I like the replacements better....Duda's departure is "good riddance"
Decoders!!!! Nice job, tablet....I actually wrote Cespedes.
ReplyDeleteTom -
ReplyDeleteThese are just my thoughts, observations, and predictions.
Mack I totally can see your If’s come true...
ReplyDeleteBut saying we finish second in the division is a default if how bad the division could be...
Do you have a prediction of the teams record?
I think a reasonable return to health will result in a pretty big jump in the win column. If you add in the improvements on the roster (tempered by some of the losses), I agree with your assessment, Mack.
ReplyDeleteNot quite on the Nationals level (unless they have a 2018 like our 2017), but better then the rest of the division and a bit over .500 in my estimation. That COULD result in a WC berth, but we have to see how the rest of the NL shakes out first.
Oh and I also agree on Zack Wheeler......LOADS of talent and promise, yet very little in the way of results.
Tom -
ReplyDeleteIn addition... I do not agree that 'Decoders replaced Grandy'.
Grandy played CF and RF. Cespedes is a LFer who once in awhile filled in at center.
Semantics to me though.
Eddie -
ReplyDeleteI think the Mets have made some nice improvements but their second place finish would basically be accomplished because the other teams in the division suck so much.
Win range in the 80-90, but I can not pinpoint it more than that. Still, less wins than two other runner-ups.
Fair enough, Mack. Cespedes only had 291 ABs last year, mostly half-healthy. If he can stay healthy and double those ABs, and Conforto gets back in early May, Lagares and Nimmo will really be squeezed for 2018 at bats - and we will have a killer offensive outfield, second only to....the Yanks.
ReplyDeleteThree things:
ReplyDelete- The Phillies signed Carlos Santana. He was their big addition.
- The Nationals will not win the division. Murphy is hurt and they don’t have much depth, especially at the mound.
- When Collins leaves a managerial position, the next year the team goes to the World Series. Here’s to beating those *#$@* Yankees or the Astros.
TexasGusCC, the Yanks' signing of Stanton was a spectacular move, but highly risky, given the length of the contract (think Griffey and Pujols drop offs in their 30's).
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the Yanks, given lefty hitters' advantage there, would have been better off with lefty Bruce and his shorter contract.
Tom
ReplyDeleteHow can we call the signing of stanton highly risky? He is young and just won the MVP. He is premier talent and worse of all was acquired for nothing and still received salary compensation. To speak of his drop off in his 30's then whay do you say about Bruce who is in his 30's and Fraizer? they were cheap because the market (aka no one wanted them) allowed it.
Your basically suggesting you should never sign someone once they hit free agency because they are risky... Of course they is a level of risk but shoot conforto is a risk now... He may blow out his shoulder hitting off a TEE...
You sign studs... period... Pass on avg players every time... that what the farm system is for...
Eddie, all I am saying is that having guys under nearly decade-long contracts is risky. The Yanks just dealt with A Rod's long contract and it was a burden the last, oh, 4 years. Length = risk.
ReplyDeleteI made the Bruce point because Bruce's typical 32 homer season in Citi could/would be a 40 homer year in Yankee Stadium - just ask Curtis Granderson, who hit 84 homers in 2 seasons as a Yank. My guess is Bruce in Yankee Stadium would sneak out about 8 more homers a year than in Citifield.
That said, the Yanks almost undoubtedly will come out on top with Stanton's contract - the players don't all tail off once they hit their early to mid 30's. Though some do, spectacularly - just ask Santana and Pedro. And Wright.
But I agree - if the Mets would have gotten the same deal for Stanton, I think as an owner I'd have ignored the risk of the long term deal blowing up in 3 or 4 years and done it for the superlative "now".
Do you pay for Bad money at the of a long term contract...
ReplyDeleteYes I believe you do but we did that with Granderson and Probably will do that with Bruce.
What i am saying is we are penny foolish... We over spent on Granderson for the last 2 years about 32 million dollars...
I would have rather wasted 70-90 million dollars on stanton deal for what he could bring in the front half.
And Arod's deal only sucked because the Boss allowed him to re sign after he opt'd out of his first 10 year deal...
If he stayed on that original 10 year deal from Texas it would have gone down as the best deal of all time...
Some deal are not worth it.. But I am on record that 300-350 million for Machado or harper next year would have been worth it but the junk we just acquired at bargain prices (remember NO ONE WANTED THEM) has 100 percent killed that...
Eddie, good points. Maybe we still get Machado; Frazier is just 2 years and should be tradable after 2018. Getting Harper would definitely require the Mets trading someone (Bruce or Cespedes).
ReplyDeleteI'd (right now) certainly be in favor of Harper, any attitudes notwithstanding - he is REALLY young, playing all of this year as a 25 year old.
I think Gimenez comes on really fast in 2018 and while he won't be ready opening day next year, he could be a 2019 mid season call up. He'll need room...and clearly be dirt cheap for a few years. So Machado might jam up the infield.
Hopefully, Bruce stays youthful throughout his 3 year deal. Granderson when he started his 4 year deal was 2 years older than Bruce is now as he starts his 3 year deal. So Bruce will be 3 years younger than Grandy when Jay's contract ends. I like that.
Also, Jay was on a pace to break the Mets' all time homer record last year when he was traded (On pace for 43, as I recall). He ended up at 36/101 in just 146 games. That is impressive. I am glad he is back...that said, I'd have preferred Stanton over Jay.