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2/9/18

Michael Friere - The Todd Frazier Effect



As most Mets’ fans know, Sandy was able to secure the services of Todd Frazier earlier this week with what I think is a fair deal for both sides.  The dollar figure is below what some sites felt that he would sign for and the length of the deal is also less then what was expected.  However, TF will not “go hungry” living in NYC, as eight to nine million dollars still goes pretty far and is still a pretty good chunk of change when you consider the Mets’ budget and the fact that they are still paying an injured David Wright.  

The signing solidifies a problem area on the roster (Third Base) and by only committing two years to the deal, it does not block any of the Mets up and coming prospects that play third base or may eventually shift to the position, such as David Thompson and Andres Gimenez in the short term, or Mark Vientos a bit farther down the road.  Plus, if one of the youngsters is ready by 2019, Frazier has some positional flexibility and can become an asset on the bench in the second year of his deal.

I previously looked at Todd’s statistics in an earlier set of articles (Let’s Make A Deal), but it bears repeating that his best seasons actually occurred in the National League as a member of the Cincinnati Reds where he was also a teammate of Jay Bruce.  TF will never be in contention for a batting title, but his "seasonal average" during his stint with the Reds was .257/.321/.463 (.784 OPS), with 25.6 HR/77.0 RBI/10.2 SB and 72.3 Runs Scored.   That works out to an average WAR of 3.69 which is very respectable, while not even focusing on his above average defense at a very important position on the diamond.   Granted, he is a bit older now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he produced a similar season for the Mets in 2018, especially since he is “home again” and he is playing on a team with at least one familiar face in JB.

Yes, I am a fan of the signing since it basically fills two problem areas on the roster with Asdrubal Cabrera moving over to Second Base where he is more suited, in my opinion.  It also helps the bench with Wilmer Flores becoming a utility player in place of Matt Reynolds.

So, how does this move affect the Mets batting order?

As Reese stated earlier this week, the lineup is still lacking a true leadoff hitter, so that is still to be determined.  However, with the current players to pick from and the anticipated delay of Michael Conforto’s debut, this is what I have for now;

1.  Amed Rosario (SS)
2.  Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)
3.  Yoenis Cespedes (LF)
4.  Jay Bruce (RF)
5.  Todd Frazier (3B)
6.  Adrian Gonzalez (1B)
7.  Juan Lagares (CF)
8.  Travis d’Arnaud

***I think you will see Brandon Nimmo playing quite a bit until Conforto returns to the lineup (he would actually be a solid choice to lead off on days that he plays).  Once MC is back, he may very well lead off and play CF on a regular basis, which is slightly odd when you consider his run producing bat and lack of top end speed.

***I would prefer that Amed Rosario bats farther down in the order with his propensity to strike out as a young player.   If the Mets find a better alternative to lead off, I would move AR down to sixth or seventh in the lineup which would allow him to develop with a bit less pressure.

I am actually a bit intrigued by the lineup, despite the lack of overall speed.  A healthy Adrian Gonzalez would be a nice bat to park behind the triumvirate of YC/JB/TF, which would shield TF a bit.   It also alternates between right and left handed hitters, making pitching match-ups a bit more problematic for the opposing team.

In closing, despite the addition of TF, I would still like to see the Mets make a move for Josh Harrison, but only if Sandy can keep Nimmo in the process.  JH would take over Second Base and provide a much better alternative at the top of the batting order, plus your bench would get much better with  Cabrera joining Jose Reyes, Flores and Nimmo, giving Mickey Callaway a bunch of options.

Thoughts?



9 comments:

  1. I do not think we will add another IF, unless we trade one. After Frazier, any more would be excessive to me.

    Acquiring one or two of Cobb, Lynn, and Watson would be better ways to spend, IMO.

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  2. My thoughts exactly and nice article. I would love to see more of Nimmo over JL as I really think he has more upside and is much more suited to leadoff and his time is now to prove himself before MC is back. The Conforto injury has to be the most disappointing event of last season to me because I can see this unfortunately being a recurring issue though I certainly hope not and if we see him playing before June it'll be a huge plus so Brandon this is as good time as any to show em what you got.

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  3. Cabrera going back in a Harrison deal saves them money and keeps them on the hook for just one year. You'd have to sweeten that with someone else, such as a fringe starting pitcher like Gsellman or Flexen. That would provide them the cost controlled player for several years. That might get it done.

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  4. Lynn is hampered by the QO situation, and I think Cobb is, too. Sandy is right to look elsewhere.

    I wouldn't mind offering a MnL deal to RA Dickey, who could help the knuckleballer who was at Bingo last year, but I'd still look to add a ML SP. There are still a lot of them out there.

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  5. Bill and I are rarely on the same page but this time I think we are. In addition to Dickey I would look long and hard at Linceum as a lightning-in-a-bottle invitee.

    You're thinking about Mickey Jannis who escaped the Rule V draft.

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  6. My dear hope is AGone stinks in March, so the Mets can put Bruce at first and Nimmo in RF. That would solve the lineup, but Lagares and Rosario back to back at the bottom is a problem.

    Reese, love that trade for the Mets and the Pirates. If they can add a decent arm with many years of control and still get production from 2B while saving a few bucks, I’m sure they will.

    I’m holding out hope for Jason Vargas because he’s a lefty, but my Plan B is Chris Tillman. Tillman is an escapee of the AL East, and has a nice combination of pitches and peripherals.

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  7. Gus -

    We will start this season with 4 starters that will never see their 20s again.

    Trust me...

    The injuries will come.

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  8. As Yogi said, "sometimes it gets late early" 😀

    Hard to believe they got so "old" when their careers are so young. They need to find Bart's Fountain of Youth.

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