Q and A - Dominic Smith or Peter Alonso?

Mike Friere asks -

Recent veteran signings notwithstanding, it appears that the Mets have two first base prospects in Dominic Smith and Peter Alonso.  If you had to decide, which one do you trade and which one do you keep?

Tom Brennan says –

Personally, I think the value of both will substantially climb this season.

Smith has now had his MLB break in period and wakeup call...I expect real improvement from him in 2018.  He is akin to a talented boxer who stepped up in weight class, got his butt kicked, and now realizes first-hand what he is REALLY up against.

Alonso will crush 2018 with the big time bat and hustle towards the majors.  But he needs 400-500 more minor league ABs, IMO, to climb offensively...and defensively.

So don't trade either until mid-2018 or next off season at the earliest.  Value is going HIGHER.

Reese Kaplan says –

If what is said about Alonso's awkwardness in the field cannot be solved, then he may wind up down the path of other slugging types of the past like Zach Lutz.  Of course, Wilmer Flores has shown that despite the defensive side of the game not being nearly as well developed, he's able to hit major league pitching.  However, he's not yet been able to get a starting gig and I can see this same issue happening with Alonso.  Unlike Flores who is still hanging around the NL, Alonso will likely become trade bait to an AL team where he can DH.

Despite what we saw of Dom Smith's bat and glove last year, the indications throughout his minor league career was that he was a hitter for high average with decent power and a plus glove .  He has shown some dedication by coming into this spring notably leaner and thus I feel he's the better long term prospect in the mold of a John Olerud.

Mike Friere says –

One of the hardest things to do is to try and predict what someone will do in the future because you do not know all of the possible variables that will dictate what may occur.   One of my responsibilities at work is to recruit, hire and retain personnel, which includes TRYING to predict what someone may or may not do in the future.  In my humble opinion, the best anyone can do is to refer to a person's past, which is the best indicator of future performance.

With that said, I think it is fair to assume that Dominic is the better fielder and he will likely hit for a higher average, but with less power (perhaps an amped up version of James Loney, or maybe a Dave Magadan type).  Peter will likely be a bigger power threat, but at the expense of batting average and fielding prowess (which is rumored to be an off season focus for him).  Following along with a possible "similar player comparison", Pete could be more of a Jeff Bagwell type of player if all goes well.

So the question becomes, what attribute is more important to you?   Personally, I think it is easier to work on your fielding and batting eye, then it is to teach someone to hit for power.  In a future lineup that does not have a bunch of power to start with, give me the power bat at first base and use Dominic as a valuable trade chip to address other needs.

Mack says –

I have to be true to my desires of having the best defensive infield in the business.

One of these two is a former minor league Golden Glove first baseman. He also hits a decent baseball… not as hard and long as the other guy… but he seems capable of someday reaching the 20/80 range every team is looking for from this position.

I’m taking my Peter Alonso chips off the table.

A friend of my who scouts his regularly told me earlier this month, ‘I feel like Peter’s father every time I watch him play in the field. I hold my breath every time a ball is hit to him. It’s that brutal.”

“Brutal”?

If my friend feels this way, so do scouts from 29 other teams.

Therefore, I return Dominic Smith to being my future first baseman and I try and package Alonso in a deal to an American League team.