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9/14/18

Tom Brennan: 2019 METS PROSPECT PROJECTED PROMOTIONS: PITCHERS



2019 METS PROSPECT PROJECTED PROMOTIONS: PITCHERS

As I wrote on Tuesday, "I do it my way, Paul Anka".

That said, I start "my way" in this article, at the bottom of the Mets Minors and work my way up, focusing on high performing 2018 prospects and early round picks who perhaps struggled in 2018. 

Most guys start at the top of the organization and work their way down - perhaps I am dyslexic.  I do enjoy a nice slice of upside down cake, that much I can tell you.

Today's part two is for the pitchers. 

My prior article?

If you guessed hitters, you are as astute as I know you to be. 

FROM THE DSL:

Jefferson Escorcha pitches with slick grace, according to Jefferson Starship's Grace Slick.  

The 18 year old 5'11", 180 lefty killed it, mostly in relief, going 5-3, 1.57, 0.78 WHIP, 5 saves, and 63 Ks in 57 IP.   Send him to Kingsport in 2019 and let him start - maybe we got something real good here.

Andres German is a 21 year old 6'1, 150 righty in his 2nd year in the DSL.  He went 5-2, 1.97 and allowed just 5 earned runs in his last 8 games spanning 47 innings.  I'd send him to Kingsport in 2019.

FROM THE GCL METS:

Simeon Woods Richardson – great # 2 pick, athletic 17 year old flamethrower, great control, lots of Ks, stingy on runs.  I would like to see him start the season in full A ball Columbia, but will settle for Brooklyn if I have to.  I hope we have Dwight Gooden II here. 

Ramon Guzman, a 6'4" 154 pound 21 year old righty, started out poorly in the DSL in 2018, got bumped up to the GCL, and did great there, going 5-2, 2.05 in 48 innings.  Bump him up to Brooklyn in 2019, when he'll be 22.

Cesar Loaiza and Christofer Dominguez were two late arrivals in the GCL following excellent DSL seasonsOverall, 20 year old 6'3", 165 lefty Loaiza went 4-2, 1.53 in 47 IP, with 57 Ks, while 18 year old 6'2", 220 lefty Dominguez was 7-1, 1.84 in 59 innings, despite giving up 4 earned runs in his last short outing.  I'd send both to Kingsport in 2019.  


FROM THE KINGSPORT METS:

Willie Taveras was a stellar 7-1, 2.35, 1.02 WHIP between GCL and Kingsport.   The 5'11", 160, 20 year old righty did allow 13 earned runs in his last 27 innings, so my guess is he is Brooklyn-bound in 2018 in his attempt to become the next Jaison Vilera for the Cyclones.


FROM THE BROOKLYN CYCLONES:


Jaison Vilera (5-2 in 13 starts) should go to either Columbia or St Lucie in 2019, as he led the NY Penn League in ERA (1.83) and Ks (78).

Christian James, now 20 and drafted in the 14th round in 2016, was superb.  He actually totaled 9 innings in St Lucie and Binghamton, and went 9 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, a walk and 9 Ks, but pitched terrifically most of the year in Brooklyn.  My take is the 6'3", 210 righty should go directly to St Lucie in 2019.

Andrew Mitchell, drafted this year, will be 24 next year, so he needed to impress.  He did, in relief, going 2-3, 1.17 in 23 innings with 32 Ks.  Off to Columbia's bullpen he should go in 2019.

Kyle Wilson, now 21 and a 35th rounder in 2017, had a fine year in 18 outings (13 starts), going 5-5, 3.27 with 78 Ks in 72 IP.  I'd target him for Columbia's rotation in 2019.

Joshua Walker, a 37th rounder in 2017 who will be 24 next year, was solid in 2018, with a 1-1, 3.27 record and 52 Ks in 41 IP.  Columbia pen or rotation in 2019.

The relief corps was just plain excellent in Brooklyn with 2018 draftees Tyler Megill (1-2, 3.21, 36 Ks in 28 IP), Kevin Smith (4-1, 0.76, 28 Ks in 23 IP, 0.76 WHIP), Tommy Wilson (1-0, 1.23, 22 IP, 27 K), Ryley Gilliam (2.08 ERA, 31 Ks in 17 IP), and Adam Hill (1-1, 2.35, 26 K in 15 IP), not to mention 2017 draftee  Billy Oxford (8-1, 1.34 in 26 games).  All are likely headed to Columbia or, in a few cases, perhaps, directly to St Lucie.

FROM THE COLUMBIA FIREFLIES:

Tony Dibrell (7-6, 3.50 in 23 starts) fanned 147 in 131 innings.

Tony Terrific is surely ticketed for St Lucie - I anticipate he will get promoted mid-season to Binghamton too.

Conner O'Neil (6-0, 2.86 in 27 games with 56 Ks in 44 IP), and lefty Aaron Ford (2-2, 2.03, 32 Ks in 27 IP) performed quite well, and are mostly likely targeted for the Lucie Bullpen, according to Fred and Ethel Mertz.

FROM THE ST LUCIE METS:

David Peterson finished strong and Anthony Kay pitched well too.  The two very highly drafted lefties have to be moving on to Binghamton, and hopefully joining the Mets by early 2020.

Joe Cavallaro was great in Columbia and held his own in St Lucie over 8 post-promo starts - I'd promote him to Binghamton to start in 2019, too.  The 23 year old righty, in his second season, went 10-6 with a low 3's ERA and 129 Ks in 127 IP.

Jordan Humphreys and Tom Szapucki will get promotions of sorts as they return from Tommy John surgery after missing 2018.  The two stellar performers will hope to pick up where they left off.

Trey Cobb was fine in the pen in 2018 and should be headed to Binghamton.  The 24 year old 2017 8th rounder was 3-2, 3.22 in 42 games, and 12 saves in 50 IP, with 52 Ks.

FROM THE BINGHAMTON RUMBLE PONIES:

Starters: Dunn, Kilome, Jannis:


Relievers: Torres, Villines, Blackham, Ryan, Atkins

Justin Dunn had 24 starts in 2018, and by my account, 14 were from very good to really good, while the other 10 ranged from pretty good to pretty bad.  All told, for the 22 year old former first rounder, he was plenty good enough to move up to AAA for 2019, hey, maybe the Mets, too, at some point.

Franklyn Kilome was just 4-9, but the trade-acquired 6’6” fireballer was very solid in 6 of 7 starts with Binghamton.  He should be AAA bound to start 2019.

Mickey Jannis struggled in early 2018, but knuckled down – in his last 10 starts, he threw to a 2.19 ERA, so off to AAA he too should go to start 2019.  My guess is he will eventually latch onto some team not afraid of the knuckleball that will need a starter – not sure if that will be the Mets.  Maybe he chooses to move on.

Joshua Torres, Steve Villines, Matt Blackham, Ryder Ryan and Adam Atkins all had solid to very solid 2018 seasons, and I see no reason any of them should not be in AAA next year, especially considering how bad the current AAA Mets squad pitched this year.  Syracuse needs a mostly overhauled bullpen, to avoid the scenario of 2018 where 18 pitchers had ERAs of 6.00 or higher in Vegas.


FROM THE LAS VEGAS 51'S:

Chris Flexen and PJ Conlon should be getting ready to try, try again, in a more conducive pitching atmosphere.  Both had troublesome 2018's, including a little time in Queens.  They likely will continue the AAA to NY shuttle in 2019.  

Drew Gagnon, just called up to the Mets in September, could do the same.  Drew fanned 167, 31 more than the league's # 2.

Kyle Regnault and Bobby Wahl - will they be in the organization in 2019?  Both had mostly fine seasons in relief.  Kyle puzzlingly has yet to see the big leagues as he keeps getting bypassed.  After a very bad season start, he ended up 4-1, with 82 Ks in 60 IP.  The lefty is 12-1 over his last 3 seasons, including 9-1 for Vegas. 

Guys who should be bouncing between the majors and minors in relief in 2019: Tim Peterson, Drew Smith, Jacob Rhame, Corey Taylor, Eric Hanhold, Paul Sewald, Tylor Bashlor, and Dave Roseboom, and perhaps others.  But beware the use of too many such guys, because of such collectively borderline major league arms are 28th-best-in-2018 5.00 ERA major league bullpens made.

Boy, that took a long time - but that's my take.

Tons of arms - the pipeline looks strong and deep, but lacking a dude or dudes who could be season-changers for the Mets in 2019.

What's your take?

16 comments:

  1. Looks like the David Wright saga is ending appropriately...good for all. Sad that Wright broke down physically and significantly truncated a great career.

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  2. I think you and I have covered the projected pipeline talent these past few days.

    As usual your pipeline is wider.

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  3. When Omar was Fired as Gm many clamored about the state of the minors, but the 2015 World Series team was built on mostly Omar's guys...

    Will we be saying this soon about Sandys's guys? While he did very little in the first 3 years drafting and signings he seems to have done fairly well in the international market and the 2018 draft in particular...

    What do you thing Mack, Tom & Reese?

    One more note, Why do these GM leave with bad signings. I believe Omar was fired due to the Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo Signings, Sandy now has Bruce, Fraizer and Swarack...

    We already call the Wilpons cheap but these GM's would help themselves by just not signing marginal guys...

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  4. Eddie, as bad as the Bruce/Frazier/Swarzak signings were this year, I am hoping (perhaps hoping against hope) that the 3 will do much better next year. Frazier has not been bad and is said to be a great clubhouse asset. If he had 550 ABs at his current rate, he'd have 28 homers and 90 RBIs, certainly tolerable #s.

    Heck, this team is (if my math is correct) 24-16 over the last 40 games. Add in Alonso and Gimenez during 2019 (maybe Dunn, too) and something special may be going on. JUST...FIX...THE...PEN.

    Heck again, Vargas has 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings, Matz looks like Matz again...things are looking up.

    I do like the state of the lower minors, as it seems there were some very good draftees and int'ls...seemingly far better than in the past - some really legit looking dudes.

    Mack, my net is wide, but there are still other guys not in either of my articles who could surface, like a Hansel Moreno, who had a very solid year for Columbia. Hopes for a real pipeline out of all of them seem as high as I can ever remember, hard to believe when all the teams above DSL collectively had a sub-.500 W/L record. I think it is a case of a lot of good players mixed with a lot of really weak ones, rather than a lot of mediocrity. I anticipate that many weak guys will be released this off season.

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  5. Nice, Tom.......it certainly seems like we have a decent number of prospects (pitching AND hitting) in the pipeline.

    Should bode well for 2020 and beyond, hopefully.

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  6. Mike, true, but with Alonso (early 2019), Gimenez (mid-2019, unless not at all needed then), and Dunn and Peterson (late 2019), there are some viable reinforcements in 2019, too, in my "aggressive timetable" opinion.

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  7. Eddie

    I do like what the Mets have done over the past 3 yrs, especially in the Intl draft, but the credit must go to his scouting team.

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  8. I wish they would occasionally look for bat's and not just wild power arms.

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  9. CF Ross Adolf (Brooklyn: 12th round, 2018) was 9th in the league in home runs 3rd in slugging, and 3rd in OPS.

    2B Luis Santana (K-Port: signed 2016) was 5th in BA, 11th in slugging, and 7th in OPS

    3B Mark Vientos (K-Port: 2nd round, 2017) was tied for 4th in home runs, 10th in slugging, and 9th in OPS.

    SS Sheryven Newton (K-Port: signed July 2015) led the league in doubles, was 14th in slugging, and 11th in OPS

    SS Ronny Mauricio (GCL: signed July 2017) was tied for 6th in doubles.

    C Andres Gimenez (DSL: signed July 2015) was tied for 9th in doubles, tied for 5th in home runs, 3rd in slugging, and 4th in OPS.

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  10. Those are 6 to truly watch, along with Jarred Kelenic, who may turn out to be the best of that Magnificent Seven.

    Also notable is that Santana won a Sterling Award 2 straight years.

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  11. As Arby's says...

    WE HAVE THE (young) MEAT

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  12. Around the Acorn

    Interesting articles today.

    Jenry Mejia getting a conversation. Oh my. My take on him is this. If he can play again and he is still property of the NY Mets, give him a shot closing here. Why not? Right now, the Mets have two possible relievers who probably could be ready to close come 2019. They are Seth Lugo and Tyler Bashlor. The rest (to me) are all set-up men and mid relievers, at best. A couple AAA bound.

    The Mets are still struggling with later inning relievers being brought into the games who shouldn't be used then because they really do not have a single killer out pitch to use in their respective arsenals. It cost the Mets a game over the weekend with Boston.

    I still love my "two relief units" idea for relieving. Three relievers each. A mid reliever, a set-up, and a closer. Then the seventh guy is a rubber arm type reliever who can go in at any point in relief, the fifth thru ninth.

    I think in an "ideal world format", wherever that actually is who knows, I think that if everything went perfectly in ST 2019, then maybe Bashlor is one unit's closer and probably Mejia the other. But I do realize here too, that Jenrry Mejia can be a free radical spaceman. Such relievers are actually what you look for in a good closer, and as such Jenrry is well suited for this role I think. So perfecto to that idea too.

    The Mets easily could have taken the Red Sox series I felt, two out of three. Think about it a minute, the Red Sox have the very best record in MLB right now, no one is even close to them. And the Mets could have taken the series? Not bad I say Mrs. Quackenabush!

    I also felt that "some things" became obvious in this weekend Red Sox series, for these Mets. Things to take note of maybe.

    I like this 2018 NY Mets team a lot now. It isn't perfect, nothing ever is except politicians, but the team has (I think) solid promise heading into 2019. Even Jay Bruce is looking totally out of sickbay now. He is hitting the ball a lot harder and running human again too.

    Two tweaks Mr. Ricco. Think homeruns. Maybe another final chance for Jenrry too? Who knows. All can happen in the ideal world.

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  13. A Closer Examination of the MLB Playoff Contenders

    To me, there are four teams who I think have the very best chance of getting into the finals dance due to player personnel and their respective managers having some experience at this.

    They are...

    AL

    1. Houston Astros / Why? A: I just like their uniforms! No, actually I study them every season at this time of year, and have never gotten it right one time. I always underestimate them and especially their starting rotation. I just never see how very good that they really are. May need glasses.

    There is something so vastly intangible here to them, that I historically have missed it entirely I think. It's more than just "team chemistry" I think. It may have something to do more with how terrifically they just talent mesh together. I am hard pressed to find another MLB team as good at this "hand in glove" intangible thing as Houston is, to be honest, although Boston is somewhat close.

    True, Boston may have the better record, but is their own "hand in glove" as good as the Astros? We'll see. So, I give the nod to Houston this time. Maybe this time I will be right? That would be rare.

    2. Boston Red Sox / To a "casual baseball observer" the Red Sox have the best AL team due to their outstanding won/loss record that they have accomplished this season. However, if you have watched all their games thru the season, they have not played as well second half as their first half, and it is obvious to the true Red Sox fan. They have struggled pitching wise and hitting in the clutch.

    Chris Sale has had shouler-barkings and is being used by the Red Sox as if he is made of glass. If his shoulder worsens and he goes down, the Red Sox will struggle in the Playoffs most likely. Chris is their true ace. But man, he throws hard like Harvey once did.

    First base with Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce have not always been offensively consistent. Second base has been a sort of turnstyle with four players. The outfield is set and stacked, while the catcher spot has been sort of up for grabs all season long between Vasquez, Leon, and Swihart.

    My point here is simply that although the Red Sox have won a ton of games, they are not necessarily the very best AL team heading into the Playoffs. If Chris Sale goes down (rah-roh) then the Red Sox really only have David Price, Eduardo Rodriquez (who is awesome), and Rick Porcello. Three. The other starters that they have, can be kind of up and down.

    NL

    I see two teams...

    The Chicago "Murphy" Cubs and the LA Dodgers.

    The Cubs have "The Murphman" and pitching going for them and a solid lineup that can play very well.

    While the Dodgers have "25-man roster depth" with Yasel Puig and Sandy Kershaw going strong. Both of these two NL teams have been there before, so it would make for an excellent NL Finals.

    So these four are the four I watch.

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  14. Anonymous, you should repost your comment under Mike Friere's article today, as your commentary relates more to that discussion.

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  15. Tom

    Sadly, he always responds to post that aren't viewed much anymore

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