Tom Brennan - WHY I WOULD NOT TRADE PETER ALONSO
Erudite Mack Mets columnist and sage Reese Kaplan laid out catcher alternatives for 2019 in an article on Wednesday.
I agree with his basic concept - d'Arnaud and Plawecki as a 2019 catching tandem is high risk. The likelihood of a repeat of "Catchers in the Mash Unit" in 2019 is very high, based on past history. Often injured and lousy at gunning down runners.
Given that the Mets minors catchers do not give anyone the warm and fuzzies as to their ability to step in and provide major league average quality catcher performance, Reese suggested an Alonso for Realmuto trade.
My take? Mr. Realmuto looks really, really good, but I would opt to keep Alonso, the 2018 Sterling Award Minor League Player of the Year (and most likely, in the top 3 to 5 of all players in the minors in 2018 in terms of performance).
Pete, I believe, could be a great first baseman for the Mets for years to come.
Pete slumped at first when promoted to Las Vegas in mid-season, but scorched over his last 40 games in Vegas.
Meanwhile, alternate Mets 1B prospect Dominic Smith's ascent in the minors has never been at eye-popping speed, nor has he generated eye-popping stats (they were quite good in 2017 pre-call up, I will admit), but rather his climb has been slow and gradual.
Alonso has had far fewer minor league at bats and nonetheless has surged, not crawled, by any objective measure. Nothing slow and gradual there.
Also, Dominic Smith had the advantage of facing mostly opposite pitchers (righty vs. his lefty bat), while Pete has not let the fact that he faced righties as a righty hitter 74% of the time this season slow him down at all. Not a smidgeon.
Happily, Pete's 2018 AA and AAA splits were amazingly almost identical:
So any worry that righty pitchers would expose him and eat him alive in the big leagues is most likely unwarranted.
.283/.397/.559 vs lefties
.285/.395/.587 vs. righties
So any worry that righty pitchers would expose him and eat him alive in the big leagues is most likely unwarranted.
Former Met Duda vs. lefties was always a huge concern, in contrast. He never handled lefties the way Alonso can already handle righties.
More pertinently, Dominic Smith (heating up of late, it is good to see) is under-performing against lefties: in 49 MLB ABs, .167/.265/.286, and in the minors, just .264/.319/.355 vs lefties in Vegas in 2018 and .247/.321/.412.
That says PLATOON to me, unless something changes.
And we don't need a platoon at first base.
We need Alonso.
And Jay Bruce should not be allowed to stand in his 1B way.
Why? Because I think Alonso could rewrite the Mets' power records if he is allowed to stay and play...records like the season homer record of 41 and the Mets' meager all time career home run record of 252.
So, fix the catcher spot via free agency.
And Keep Pete.
But this is the Mets - I would not be surprised that the d'Arnaud/Plawecki duet gets one more encore in Citifield in 2019. So catcher trade or free agent talk may be nothing more than that - talk.
And Keep Pete.
But this is the Mets - I would not be surprised that the d'Arnaud/Plawecki duet gets one more encore in Citifield in 2019. So catcher trade or free agent talk may be nothing more than that - talk.
Tom
ReplyDeleteYou make for a good arguement here but I'm too busy eating my PB&J sandwich
I understand why you want to skippy it - that's fince!
ReplyDeleteOk
ReplyDeleteLet's say we keep Alonso. He is a one dimentional player in the field. He will play first and nowhere else.
What do we do with Dom?
Yo and Lagares will be back to join our other big contract (Bruce) and our two emerging stars (Nimmo and Conforto).
He is not exactly ready to trade.
So, what happens to him?
Dom goes back to AAA
DeleteI am hoping Smith has a dazzling last 2 1/2 weeks and ups his trade value. He can be a back up 1B and back up LF until traded...unless he gets a lot better.
ReplyDeleteSmith has not been anywhere near major league average so far in his career. He has a long way to go just to get to average.
I think Peter Alonso, fielding and all, will be an above average 1B for years.
I agree.....keep the Pounder!
ReplyDeleteI also see the huge void behind the plate, but would advocate using other assets to address the issue, or to trade for Realmuto, etc.
Dom is either trade bait OR he could be a utility guy on the bench....fill in at first against really tough righties and play some outfield. Maybe teach him to play some third base, too?
Alonso is the shot at a future
ReplyDeleteHe must remain and given a chance
He can be prince fielder Jr so let’s have him in the middle of the line up and protect conforto
That may be our potential duo
Eddie and Mike. I agree.
ReplyDeleteI'd love the impossible...Dom Smith converting to...catcher!
I would be O.K. starting the year with Smith, McNeil, Rosario and Frazier around the infield and Conforto, Nimmo and Bruce in the outfield with Alonso, Gimenez and Cespedes to add in as the season progresses. We HAVE to beef up the BP but as far as catchers go their too expensive so go defense first and save our chips to add at the deadline if the situation warrants it. It would be also be great to see a rotation we've all dreamed about actually come to pass and with bullpen help this could be a WC team. Stay safe Mack.
ReplyDeleteIf I can add in a little pigskin talk it will really be interesting if Manning comes up short and they passed on Darnold as we'll be hearing about it for along time coming. I'm an old fan of both teams because they were in different league's l-o-n-g ago so it was easy to root for both and I never could drop one after the merger and glad I didn't. Lets go Jets and Giants.
ReplyDeleteTom also what do you have to do to be considered Erudite?
ReplyDeleteGary, to be considered erudite, you need to either change your name to Reese or be adopted by him. I recommend the former.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Mr. Brennan. I have been called sagacious, perspicacious and a great many things not suitable for a family blog. :)
ReplyDelete