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11/10/18
Mike Freire - The First "Big" Question
OK, so the 2018 season has been officially "put to bed" and we are about to enter the Hot Stove season, otherwise known as the start to the 2019 campaign. In this day and age of the internet and non-stop media coverage, there really isn't much of a break between seasons anymore. If you can believe it, the Mets will report to Spring Training in just a few months, with their first preseason action taking place on February 23rd, or just over 100 days from now.
With that said, the time to make personnel moves is pretty much NOW, so our brand new General Manager will get the opportunity to craft the roster more to his liking and to (hopefully) earn the respect of everyone watching from the outside.
One of the biggest areas of needs (outside of the nuclear waste site that is also known as our bullpen), is behind the plate. The Mets desperately NEED to upgrade the position with a player who can actually hit, field and throw a few runners out from time to time. I think Kevin Plawecki will hang around as our back up Catcher, so someone who can make around 125 starts is needed and he will likely come from outside the organization.
So, lets pretend that you are the GM for a moment. You have the following options (career averages listed below) and you need to answer the "first big question" of your tenure;
Player A
13.3 WAR .273/.317/.429 (.756 OPS)
0.6 dWAR .994 Fielding % and 32% Caught Stealing
Player B
13.0 WAR .279/.327/.442 (.768 OPS)
0.5 dWAR .993 Fielding % and 33% Caught Stealing
Player C
13.5 WAR .240/.341/.441 (.782 OPS)
0.3 dWAR .994 Fielding % and 26% Caught Stealing
Yes, I understand that you would likely have more information then just what is listed to assist you with this challenge. But, going off JUST what is listed above, who would you select?
This reminds me of "blind tastings" that people can take part in, whether it is food, craft beer or wine. When you are not influenced immediately by what you see or what you think you know, the choice becomes much more difficult. The listed choice is not an easy one and the listed numbers are pretty darn close.
Taking this a step further (this will likely give away my secret), but consider the additional information;
Player A
Will play the 2019 season as a 31 year old and he has several years of experience with contending ball clubs, to include playoff experience. If you are interested in his services, the up front costs will consist of salary only and that is rumored to be around 10 million dollars per year, for no more then two or three years.
Player B
This player will play the 2019 season as a 28 year old and he has not been a part of a winning ball club to date and he has not participated in the playoffs. While he does have several years of team control left (through the 2020 season), he is likely due for a large raise in arbitration AND he will cost your team several of your top prospects in order to secure his services.
Player C
Will play the 2019 season as a 30 year old and he has been a part of several successful teams, to include playoff and World Series experience (although he was benched at times this past year due to some defensive lapses). If you are interested in his services, the up front costs will consist of salary and the loss of a draft pick in the up coming draft since he was extended a qualifying offer by his former team. Oh and his salary demands are a bit higher then Player A's, but not excessively so.
By this point, you have probably figured out that Player A is Wilson Ramos, Player B is JT Realmuto and Player C is Yasmani Grandal. What is interesting and surprising is that there isn't a huge different between the three when you compare offensive production and/or defensive prowess.
JTR has the shortest track record and a lack of experience with a winning ball club, but that isn't really his fault. But, he does have the most attractive contract and the years of control that the others do not. It does come at a premium, since you will have to trade with Derek Jeter and the Marlins in order to obtain his services.
I am in favor of holding on to our resources and building a sustainable roster, like the Red Sox. So, in that sense, I prefer one of the two free agents (Ramos or Grandal) and Ramos does not come with the penalty of a draft pick since he did not get a qualifying offer from his former club. I also like that he spent a good deal of time in the NL East and he was the primary receiver for an excellent Nationals rotation.
When you add in that Ramos will likely ask for a bit less money and fewer years on his next contract (if rumors are to be believed), then you have a "no brainer"!
My preference would be to sign Wilson Ramos first, followed by Yasmani Grandal if I cannot get Ramos. If both free agents sign elsewhere, then I would be in favor of obtaining JT Realmuto via trade as a last resort. Any of the three would be a huge upgrade behind the plate and a step in the right direction for the new regime.
I would like to add that Realmuto has a good health history and has (highly unusual for a catcher) good speed on the basepaths.
ReplyDeleteFor me.... Realmuto is the best choice all the way around. The Mets need to learn from their mistakes and stop settling for the 2nd tier choice.
Remember Bay instead of Holiday?
Who did the Mets settle for instead of Sheffield? Instead if Juan Gonzalez? Instead of Alex Rodriguez? The list goes on and on.....
Usually the choice they settle with in order to save money ended up getting injured and costing the team with inefficient dollars still counting toward payroll with no or diminished production.
Catcher: good defense? Good throwing base runners out? Healthy? Young? .270+ avg? Good team mate? Some power?
Go all in if all of that is available in one player!
Oh and for those that worry about payroll.... cheap compared to production.
DeleteGrandal is a plus defender with power and has been healthy. Chips could then be used to fill other needs.
ReplyDeleteReese -
ReplyDeleteand give up a number two???
I loved Grandal when he came out of school but we don't need another defensive liability behind the plate.
ReplyDeleteI've always considered this position a defensive first one... the rare guys like Realmuto are team changing.
You want a REAL catcher? Get REAL muto.
ReplyDeleteIf it's defense first, then you'd better fortify the offense elsewhere to make up for it. Remember back to when the platoon of Nido/Lobaton was playing. Those ABs were ugly. Without Yo in the lineup and questions about Bruce, 1B, Frazier and whether or not Rosario can build on what he did towards the end of last year, I'd be very hesitant to go into the season with a career .220 hitter like Maldonado.
ReplyDeleteI dont want any sub .250 hitters on the team
Delete