Reese Kaplan -- A Rookie GM's First Official Meetings

How many Mets fans would like to believe that there is steak along with some of the sizzle emanating from the GM meetings?  We hear names like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper and Craig Kimbrel along with the proclamation that the Mets intend to be “in” on every free agent. 

Then word filters out the supposed interest thus far includes a reunion with Asdrubel Cabrera who, as the roster stands now, would likely be the slow-footed replacement for Jose Reyes.  Yes, he performed well here in New York, but given his defensive limitations (second to the bottom in all of baseball for DRS) and his tendency to clog the bases, I would not look too closely at this option unless he was willing to sign for half of what he used to make as a strictly bench option.

Wait, then the big news came out that the team is considering Martin Maldonado as a catching option.  Haven’t we seen this movie before?  That time it starred Rene Rivera and his lifetime .220 average with some power and good defensive ability.  He cost $1.1 million less than Maldonado for the same offensive production (which is pretty offensive to any Mets fan looking to score runs). 

Apparently they are considering Wilson Ramos both too injury prone and defensively mediocre to make a serious run at him.  If that’s the profile they wanted, they could just keep Travis d’Arnaud.  (Speaking of the Mr. Glass, another tidbit suggested they might try to retain him only to trade him). 

That leaves the trade options of J.T. Realmuto, Salvador Perez or an unprecedented pitch to the number one positional free agent, Yasmani Grandal, who now has compensation attached to him.  The first two are going to be mighty expensive – think Peter Alonso, Justin Dunn, Andres Gimenez – people of that ilk (and more than one of them).  Grandal would be the easiest to get as all it would require is money and thus leave your limited chips for other deals.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but it hasn’t been since the days of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran did the Mets actually attempt to land the big fish?

Many are proposing the Mets go hot and heavy after Manny Machado and thus open up Amed Rosario as a trade chip to land a catcher.  You can’t argue with that logic.  You can argue with the Wilpons and the front office having the cojones to do something like that, but there’s a new sheriff in town and perhaps he gets some honeymoon period to do something dramatic. 

On the bullpen front, the Mets news is a little more promising.  While many would love to see Craig Kimbrel in orange and blue, the fact is that by his lofty standards he had a bit of a down year but will command a contract based upon his career’s body of work.  In dollars and cents that likely means he will get an offer for about $90 million (5 years at $18 million per year).  I’m not here to debate whether or not he’s worth that much money, but to suggest there might be a better way to go. 

There has been some chatter about a reunion between lefty Andrew Miller and his former pitching coach Mickey Callaway.  Last season was a lost one for Miller due to two different injuries.  He’s allegedly healthy and ready to resume his over 14 Ks/9 IP dominant ways.  Last year he earned $9 million for the 4^th consecutive year but should see his price tag fall somewhat given the risk associated with his knee.  Going into his age 34 season, he can probably be had in the 2-3 year range at perhaps $8 million per year.  For comparison’s sake, Jerry Blevins earned $7 million and Anthony Swarzak (Sandy’s “value pick” last year) is due to make $8.5 million.  Me?  I’d take Miller every day and twice on Sunday over that duo.  For a frame of reference, if you take out last year’s injury plagued season, his ERA for the five year inclusive period of 2013 through 2017 for the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and Orioles has been 1.82 with 469 Ks in 291 IP.  Yeah, he’s worth the money.  He has primarily been a setup guy, but has functioned as a closer for the Yankees, notching 36 saves in 2015.

Another former Yankee whose name keeps popping up is soon-to-be-34 year old David Robertson.  He’s logged innings in both a setup and closer role (the latter for the Yankees and White Sox).  He holds a 2.88 ERA for his entire career.  His season in 2017 was a little off by his standards – 3.23 – setting up for Aroldis Chapman – but the bigger worry is that he made $13 million.  He’ll probably be in line for a similar payday which might make him less palatable to the, ahem, frugal Mets. 

Reunion tours were the standard operating procedure during the Alderson era, so it’s a natural point of discussion to consider Jeurys Familia for a return to the Mets.  Upon his departure he served in a setup role for Oakland and was earning $7.925 million.  Despite his Armando Benitez-like meltdowns in pressure situations, you can’t argue with a career ERA of just 2.73 and having had seasons with 43 and 51 saves he’s likely going to command about $10 million per year for several years given that he’s just turning 29.  From a PR standpoint, I can’t see that he’s going to be as big a check in the plus column for BVW as would a shorter, cheaper deal be for Andrew Miller. 

They need more than just a closer, but at least it appears they’re looking at quality this time instead of making preemptive offers for people who might otherwise be invited to camp on minor league deals.

Of course, with the Mets having squandered four months doing nothing to replace Sandy Alderson, then scrambling to make a last-minute pick before the GM meetings, there’s quite a microscope on BVW as he was an unconventional pick.  We’ll learn more when the Winter Meetings commence, the Rule V and non-tender deadlines come and go.  Right now the approaches discussed are simultaneously uneven but somewhat encouraging.