Over the past several years we’ve seen most people convert
to the church of launch angle in the bid to put more balls over the fence. Players who were never before big power
threats (think Daniel Murphy) all of the sudden became feared offensive forces.
As Tom Glavine once famously said in his
TV commercial:
Small ball advocates are having a hard time being heard over
the standing ovations that happen when a ball leaves the yard. Yet if you think back to last season, the
thrills that fans felt when guys like Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and the last
six weeks of the season of Amed Rosario are what people seemed to enjoy the
most.
On the pitching side of the ball most people are enamored
with the traditional stats of ERA and strikeout totals. To me, at least, ERA says you know how to
buckle down when guys get on base.
Strikeouts are the pitching equivalent of the long ball. You’ve done the ultimate a pitcher can do
just as a HR represents the ultimate a batter can do.
Back when I used to play fantasy baseball I preached about a
stat that at the time didn’t have a name.
I tried to impress upon my friends and partners in the game that if the
pitcher was adept at keeping runners off base in the first place then they
would likely foster success. Nowadays,
of course, we have that stat – WHIP – Walks
plus Hits per Inning Pitched.
Often the
WHIP numbers are indeed indicative of the game’s pitching elite but sometimes
guys who are quietly getting it done fly under the radar. That group is who is worth examining to
fortify the bullpen. Based upon a 2011
study, the league average number was 1.32.
For a frame of reference, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Jacob
deGrom hovered around a mere 0.91.
Now granted, there are times you want a guy coming in from
the pen to strike people out with runners in scoring position, but to start an
inning isn’t it just as valuable to keep runners off base altogether? Think of these pitchers as the equivalent of
the Jeff McNeil types.
For this exercise I’ve set 50 games as a minimum number of
appearances and I’m primarily looking at middle relievers and setup guys. Would it surprise you to learn that the man
who led all of baseball with a 0.76 mark is none other than the reviled Oliver
Perez (who happens to be a free agent and a lefty).
Although the thought is to identify and find some quality
pitchers who might fortify the pen, number two with 73 games and a WHIP of 0.79
is newly acquired Edwin Diaz. (Oh, he
also happens to strike out in excess of 15 per IP and costs little more than
minimum wage…yeah, I think he’ll help.)
Free agent Shawn Kelley who toiled for the A’s and Nats last
year is the next big name on the list with a 0.90. (In case you’re having short term memory
issues – that’s SUPERIOR to what Jason deGrom provided last year). By the way, he’s a free agent, too.
Former Met castoff Collin McHugh has reinvented himself as a
highly effective reliever for the Astros.
He comes up next on the list with a 0.91 number as well. Given Lance McCullers, Jr.’s TJS, it’s
unlikely he could be pried away from Houston.
If the much-rumored discussion of a trade to San Diego for
Thor comes to fruition, then perhaps one of the players the Mets should ask
about is Kirby Yates. I hear a chorus of
“Who?” emanating at the mention of his name.
He was in 67 games, saved a dozen of them and finished the year with an
ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 0.92.
The Minnesota Twins’ Taylor Rogers (another collective, “Who?”)
delivered a WHIP of 0.95 with an ERA of 2.63 over 72 games. Who’d a’thunk it?
While Adam Ottavino was collecting all the headlines for his
stellar season in Colorado, very quietly Scott Oberg appeared in 56 games
pitching to a 2.45 ERA and a WHIP under 1 at 0.97.
With Brad Morrow handling the closing duties for the Cubbies
and Steve Cishek turning in his usual yeoman’s work in the pen, Pedro Strop had
a sensational season. He had a 2.26 ERA
with a 0.99 WHIP in 60 games.
A few names in the upper echelon who didn’t hit my arbitrary
50-game total may have come up mid-season or otherwise have a justification for
their fine pitching not resulting in as much usage, but here are a few names
and WHIP numbers to consider – Washington Nationals’ Sean Doolittle (0.60),
Boston Red Sox’ Ryan Brasier (0.77), San Diego Padres’ Jose Castillo (0.91),
Los Angeles Dodgers Josh Fields (0.95), Tampa Bay’s Diego Castillo (0.95), and San
Diego’s Matt Strahm (0.98). The man good
enough for number 62 in WHIP in the league and likely the next 9 figure
contract recipient was Craig Kimbrel.
While everyone agrees that a pen that includes Diaz, Seth
Lugo, Robert Gsellman and an assortment of pretenders is not nearly strong
enough, the point here is there is some quality to be found that won’t break
the bank particularly when CF and C still need to be addressed.
You mean the brain trust needs to only spend money and not trade any more prospects? how refreshing.
ReplyDeleteMorning guys:
ReplyDeleteI tell you one of the most exciting and beautiful plays in baseball,is the triple.
watching a ball go in the gap ,OF's chasing after the ball.infielders going to there cutoff.
Hitter rounding the bases.
Im glad finally the METS team has a couple guys who don't just pull up at 2nd.
I love the fact Rosario Nimmo and mcneil push the envelope.
Enjoy the day
STEVE
My "launch factor" for this Mets team in 2019 is a superior pen. Some good places to shop here. I'd be a bit leery about Ollie Perez coming back, but he seems to have progressed quite a bit from his Mets Mess days, and whoever can get the job done, let's get them. Pronto. Diaz was a great start, but even with him, the pen as populated is probably a bottom third pen in MLB. It needs about 3 more strong (repeat: STRONG) pieces.
ReplyDeleteIf Nimmo were to get traded for Realmuto, one replacement option in the OF would be McNeil. Then get Machado for the infield. Why not.
I always judge a pitcher first on WHIP and a hitter on OBP.
ReplyDeleteGive me a team full of leaders in these two categories and we win it all.
I'm with you Mack, but most fans want the HRs. Ralph Kiner used to say, "it's the Home Run hitters who drive Cadillacs. And of course, the pitching version of that is the K.
ReplyDelete" Who cares about the WHIP, this guy Ks 12 per 9 IP".
Now you are speaking MY language, Reese!
ReplyDeleteYou are focused on bullpen options in this piece (justifiably so), but that stat is equally important for ALL pitchers on a particular staff.
It is what drove me nuts about Zack Wheeler for his entire tenure, until this past year at least (and it is why I think Wheeler should be the one that gets traded, if we are dealing a pitcher, but I digress).
On bullpen options, WHIP really means that your pitcher is not ADDING to the problems that he inherited with extra base runners, etc. Our bullpen still has a way to go, but Diaz is a nice start.
On Noah Syndergaard
ReplyDeleteThe Mets still would be foolish to trade Noah anywhere, let alone the crosstown rival. Here's the true problem...
Who do you replace Noah Syndergaard with?
The Mets have no real starter in their organization right now anywhere close to being Noah level. On many MLB teams, Noah is their ace. The best the Mets could ever do trading Noah to the Yankees (oh please no) is getting back catcher Gary Sanchez, reliever Betances, and maybe one more starter from the Loaisiga, Holder, or Acevedo grouping.
This should not go down if you are a true Mets fan. And to be really frank here, the Yankees only need to re-sign JA Happ to be on an even starting rotation plain with Boston, because they already acquired James Paxton. Plus, the Nationals are putting together a really good rotation right now themselves by adding Corbin recently. The Mets cannot afford to lose Noah from their top three starters in my opinion.
I agree that the Mets need more hitting and hitting with power, this is obvious. But they already added Cano, thus moving one of the big reasons they played so well 2018 second half (Jeff McNeil) off of sceond base which he preferred.
The Mets could put McNeil aptly on third base, giving them a really overall good and young infield with Rosario and hopefully Alonso.
So what would I also think of doign right now?
Maybe do sign Wilson Ramos to catch, and do make a lesser type trade for a younger catcher like I have been suggesting in Austin Allen from San Diego, just so they have someone good ready to come up should Wilson Ramos get hurt. This would give them a decent option behind both Ramos and d'Arnaud.
Another Alternative Type of Idea
ReplyDeleteThe Mets need another bat and maybe someone to play in Cespedes's place until later in the season when Yoenis could make it back from his foot ordeal.
What about free agent Hanley Ramirez. he's looked pretty good in the DR lately. Could possibly backup Alonso on first, has some power to him from the rightside.
Just a thought. Might be able to get him on the cheap too, for a short term contract.
Mets 2019 Bullpen
ReplyDeleteI am not as negative as some NY Mets fans asking for a complete rebuild of its relief corp for 2019. They do have a few decent arms in it, namely Diaz, Bashlor, Lugo, Gsellman, Zamora, hopefully Vargas, and maybe one of their younger relievers they had down on the farm last season. So they need maybe one more really good one. Probably a lefty set-up type.
Noah Syndergaard
ReplyDeleteMan, what's up with this trade banter lately?
To me, it looks like more of a personal thing, than a baseball thing.
You don't normally trade someone as good as Noah is, and remove a high ceiling/lower salaried (comparative to his skill set) with three years of control left.
I don't get it.
Why not just trade Steven Matz and get a lefty set-up man?
Steven is 27, had one solid year as a Met, his first, but he still does have promise but maybe somewhere else where he can collect himself easier and start over. Then sign lefty JA Happ to replace him in the rotation, or make a trade with Boston for Darwinzon Hernandez, Keith's kid. (Too funny!)