Good Morning, Mets' fans!
Instead of my usual "Fleeting Thoughts" article, I wanted to focus on a couple of issues this week that are both interesting and peculiar which are directly related to the team's start to the 2019 season. Before we get into the "meat and potatoes" of this article, let's open with some basic "truths" on the young season, if you will.
1. The Mets are playing winning baseball so far and they are contending for the division lead along with the Phillies, the Braves and to a lesser extent, the preseason favorites in Washington DC.
2. The good start referenced in #1 has occurred despite the Mets having played a majority of their early season games on the road.
3. While the Mets are playing really well on the road, they are NOT playing well at home, which is a disturbing and continuing trend from the past few years.
4. The Mets are among the leaders in the National League for most of the offensive categories, in part due to the influence of our new hitting coach Chili Davis. This is in direct contrast to the team's recent performance in 2017 and/or 2018.
5. But, much like a warm blanket, the backbone of the team has clearly been the ongoing excellence of our pitching staff, much like the last few years.
Wait, what? The last entry on our list isn't a "truth" at all! Instead, it has been the opposite, with our pitching staff trading places with the "bizzaro world" version of themselves. The pitching has actually been extremely poor if we are being honest and it has been overshadowed by the offense and the mostly successful start to the year "record wise". If you are skeptical, I will put some of the ugly team pitching statistics below, but make sure you shield your eyes and hide the children before you view them (2019 MLB Averages for each category are in parenthesis).
5.65 Team ERA (4.40)
.277 Batting Average Against (.244)
.847 OPS Against (.740)
1.55 WHIP (1.33)
Holy crap! Collectively, the team's pitching staff is at THE BOTTOM of the league in most categories, which NO ONE saw coming. As a matter of fact, if I told you that the pitching staff would start the year this poorly you would have thought that I was smoking Crack. Better still, if you knew the pitching would be this poor, would you have predicted a "winning" start to the year?
For additional reference, here is a comparison between the 2019 pitching staff and the 2018 pitching staff;
2019 2018
5.65 Team ERA 4.07 Team ERA
.277 Batting Average Against .246 Batting Average Against
.847 OPS Against .711 OPS Against
1.55 WHIP 1.27 WHIP
 |
| PC - Ernest Dove |
Oh and in addition to the increase in base runners allowed, the pitchers are getting SHELLED when they do give up a few hits (look at the BA and OPS figures). And, giving up more hits with more runners on base leads to a bloated ERA.
***Steven Matz's last "effort" didn't do any favors for the pitching staff's statistics OR the bullpen's stress level. What the heck was that?
It is easier to observe and draw attention to an issue then it is to diagnose and solve the problem. But, that is what the coaching staff is for, right? Our current manager is a former pitcher and pitching coach, after all. Plus, current pitching coach Dave Eiland is also a well respected veteran of the sport with many years of experience dealing with pitchers. I am HOPEFUL that the start to the year is simply an aberration and that my overreaction to the small sample size will seem silly in a few months.
At least I hope so, because I don't think the current run of success is sustainable unless the pitching staff starts to pull their collective weight in support of the offense.
Peculiar, indeed!
It's like all the women who come out of the woodwork who want to date you once you are in a committed relationship. The timing sucks and its downright bizarre.
ReplyDeleteMike, one factor to consider is the level of competition.
ReplyDeleteImagine if you are a 50 win NBA team and have to play the Golden State Warriors? You may come out looking like a loser.
The tough competition has scored well over 5 runs per game, except the 3 against the Marlins.
The Cards, Phils, and Milwaukee are next, all scoring more than 5 runs per game.
Thankfully, Cincy, hitting .200 and averaging just 3.3 runs per game, shows up in the end of April.
I am concerned about Brandon Nimmo, who over the past 9 games was simply on fire - of course, he'd get hurt. I'd be surprised if he plays healthy soon. That could really hurt the offense in the coming games. Let's hope the Ramos HBP will be fine by Friday, too.
Matz needs to step up. In his first start in 2016, he got torched almost as bad as this week's fiasco. In his next start that year, though, he threw 7 innings of 3 hit shutout ball and fanned 9. Let's hope for that.
Yes, Matz was undeniably awful, but if not for the 2 Es by Amed we'd have looked at a 2 or 3-run inning. Not insurmountable.
DeleteGiven his body of work this season, he deserves the benefit of the doubt unless he gets shelled again in St. Louis.
I still wouldn't panic but I would start to make some baby steps, starting with the backup catcher and OF4 position.
ReplyDeleteIf the health reports went well, I would sign the catcher Boston released this week, Blake Swihardt, and have him replace d'Arnaud.
I would then sent Broxton to Syracuse and have him wor on hitting a 94 mph STRAIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE pich... a pitch that was thrown last night by a split pitcher than lives in the dirt in front of the plate. Broxton was sent to the plate and stops swinging at those pitchers that, when thrown, look like they are coming down the late... only to head towards the plate when the pitch reaches its end. You can't hit them if you swing at them and they never are a called strike if you have patience at the plate.
Broxton did swing at the first fast ball down the middle and I will give him that one, but once the bases were full, with two outs, there was no place for this runner to be placed. You just knew it would be a mid range 90 fastball down the middle.
You can't even nick the ball with your bat?
All this guys seems to be good at is striking out.
Your choice of a replacement in this slot (Liriano?)
The Ramos HBP points out the hazard of carrying only 2 catchers, especially with 8 RPs. If the pitch had hit him 2 inches loeer and damaged his elbow, he'd be out of the game and possibly on the IL for a long time
ReplyDeleteIf there were a bottom of the 9th, McNeil would have been pressed into action behind the plate.
Mickey has shown that he is willing to use the non-starting C to PH, or the starter to be PH'd or PR'd for.
Without a backup plan, one of these days it can bite us in the ass.
Agreed on Matz.......it will likely be his "outlier" for the season, but it certainly raised a few questions at the time.
ReplyDeleteMan, the pitching needs to get things in gear! Otherwise, ol' Dave's seat might start to heat up, alongside MIckey's....neither of
them are BVW picks.
Can't anyone pitch this darn game??
ReplyDelete28th in ERA at 5.54 - but Red Sox at 6.01. Nats at 5.19. Crazy.
1962 Mets' ERA was 5.04.
ReplyDeleteBill
ReplyDeletePray for C/3B/1B Patrick Mazielka to solve this 3rd catcher suation in 2 years
I've got a better short-term solution. Pick a AAA utility player we have no room for in Queens and teach him to be a Catcher. Whatever his current position is doesn't matter, but if he shows the ability to play the position, he can be promoted and be available if needed.
DeleteUnfortunately, Matz was the exact wrong pitcher for Rosario to make those errors behind. Not that I can get into his mind, but from watching him over the years, he probably started stewing over it and lost his concentration after the first one. I'd like to think he's the only Mets pitcher that can be affected like that, but I also remember that at bat Soto had against Wheeler in the first inning of his blow-up game. It was like he was messing with Wheeler to throw off his concentration and it worked 100%. Wheeler walked him and totally lost the plate after that. You could see Soto almost celebrating at how he screwed with Zack.
ReplyDeleteRe: Dave on Matz:
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've learned over the years is to carefully watch a pitcher after there's an error in the field. Steve Trachsel was the worst. He'd lose it and give up a bomb; it was a struggle for him. With Matz, he's a similar guy and we've all seen it. Doesn't handle adversity well. Great stuff, though!
Jimmy P