LOSING CLOSE ONES - UGH - SUX!
Let's zoom right in:
Down 2 runs going into the 9th, the Mets promptly plated a run to pull to within a run.
With the bags full following a very painful HBP sustained by Wilson Ramos, up steps the likable, charismatic Keon Broxton.
Charisma sometimes only counts in horseshoes, though.
On a 3-2 count, Broxton fanned on a fat fastball in the dead center of the strike zone.
On a 3-2 count, Broxton fanned on a fat fastball in the dead center of the strike zone.
End result: a painful loss.
Nimmo said losing like that was a real pain in the neck.
But I digress.
Nimmo said losing like that was a real pain in the neck.
But I digress.
Should we just say "It is early"? "Can't win them all?" Many fans do - to do otherwise, it's disloyal, it's negative.
That sort of overly positive thinking that many fans want - I see it on Facebook - ends up with Mets fans pursuing non-baseball hobbies in early October.
Stop for a moment, and consider:
Does this team actually need to make changes, or is "it is early" address the situation. Facts help to assess the matter.
Stop for a moment, and consider:
Does this team actually need to make changes, or is "it is early" address the situation. Facts help to assess the matter.
Fact:
Keon Broxton had a huge and persistent strikeout problem entering 2019.
Fact:
Brox in 2019 is now 6 for 30 with FOURTEEN strikeouts...too high a K rate, same old uncorrected K flaw. 306 Ks in 731 official major league at bats, as a matter of fact. That is "officially" HIGH.
Brox in 2019 is now 6 for 30 with FOURTEEN strikeouts...too high a K rate, same old uncorrected K flaw. 306 Ks in 731 official major league at bats, as a matter of fact. That is "officially" HIGH.
Remember the 2015 World Series? I do. What happened?
The Mets' fireballers had huge problems striking anyone from KC out. Contact hitters are wearisome to opponents. This ain't football, but it is a contact sport.
We are, I believe, better equipped with a contact hitter in Keon's slot. If we want to win, that is. Which in many years they (i.e., the Mets) in actuality don't because they run wannabe hopefuls through the roster, in case a guy catches fire or at least plays competently. Sometimes yes, but many times no.
Last year, for instance, I had calculated a while back that the weakest hitters on the 2018 Mets totaled 20% of the team's total non-pitcher at bats and hit .198 - and you wonder why we did not make the playoffs last year.
Broxton, in his career, with men on 2nd and 3rd, and with the bags full, has 4 singles in 32 at bats with 19 Ks and 2 walks (source: Baseballreference.com). Career with RISP? .199.
Surprised he fanned to end the game? Not if you knew that.
Last year, for instance, I had calculated a while back that the weakest hitters on the 2018 Mets totaled 20% of the team's total non-pitcher at bats and hit .198 - and you wonder why we did not make the playoffs last year.
Broxton, in his career, with men on 2nd and 3rd, and with the bags full, has 4 singles in 32 at bats with 19 Ks and 2 walks (source: Baseballreference.com). Career with RISP? .199.
Surprised he fanned to end the game? Not if you knew that.
Let's take another good team at random - the Dodgers.
Do K-heavy outfielders lurk there? No, they do not.
Do K-heavy outfielders lurk there? No, they do not.
MLB stats list 4 LAD outfielders. The 3 with the most Ks - all with 13 this season - each have been up over 70 times. That is to say, they make contact at acceptable rates. So does the 4th guy, for that matter.
That bases loaded situation on Wednesday screamed for contact. Put...the ball...in play.
Except for the 1/10 of 1% of the time a strikeout ends up with a man on base due to a passed ball or wild pitch, a strikeout does nothing for you.
And that's what Keon did. It's what he does, as per his record.
Except for the 1/10 of 1% of the time a strikeout ends up with a man on base due to a passed ball or wild pitch, a strikeout does nothing for you.
And that's what Keon did. It's what he does, as per his record.
I sat there as the at bat started with a sinking feeling - imagine, though, if you had a Rusty Staub type of contact hitter on the bench, and sent him up to the plate to pinch hit - I'm glued to my seat, in hope.
Carlos Gomez, anyone? He has 5 hits and 2 walks in his last 4 AAA games.
Let's move on - to TDA.
Carlos Gomez, anyone? He has 5 hits and 2 walks in his last 4 AAA games.
Let's move on - to TDA.
TDA got up in a key spot earlier, and did what he has done so often...GIDP. Once every 34 times that he comes to the plate in his career, he does that. Two outs on one swing kills rallies.
To be honest, he can't throw, although someone on Facebook said his arm is now "strong" so perhaps it finally is, he frequently can't hit in the clutch (.220 with RISP in his career), and is often injured. He us just 1 for 14, but only one K. Is his glass half-full, or really half-empty? You decide.
To be honest, he can't throw, although someone on Facebook said his arm is now "strong" so perhaps it finally is, he frequently can't hit in the clutch (.220 with RISP in his career), and is often injured. He us just 1 for 14, but only one K. Is his glass half-full, or really half-empty? You decide.
Catcher Blake Swihart, anyone? Career .255/.314/.365.
Released by the Red Sox - so, should the Mets try something new behind the dish?
Decisions, decisions:
But there us plenty of good:
Released by the Red Sox - so, should the Mets try something new behind the dish?
Decisions, decisions:
But there us plenty of good:
Hit Machine Jeff McNeil is hitting a Roger Hornsby-like .424 after his 6th straight multi-hit game.
This team, with McNeil, Michael Conforto, and a healthy Brandon Nimmo and Wilson Ramos in the line up, is offensively quite dangerous.
Nimmo's neck could be a concern, though: he sounded quite concerned about it. Hopefully, the very tough Ramos is OK after his HBP, too.
Let's hope this nucleus stays healthy...and that Brodie VW also takes every opportunity to not stand pat, but to keep aggressivley improving as opportunities present themselves.
Nimmo's neck could be a concern, though: he sounded quite concerned about it. Hopefully, the very tough Ramos is OK after his HBP, too.
Let's hope this nucleus stays healthy...and that Brodie VW also takes every opportunity to not stand pat, but to keep aggressivley improving as opportunities present themselves.
Because close losses hurt...especially if there are too many of them from late March until the time October rolls around.
Close losses hurt - good teams, though, win their lion's share of close games - and play in October.
Close losses hurt - good teams, though, win their lion's share of close games - and play in October.
The reason the club is losing is not the backup catcher. Yes, there could be improvement there but he's about 10th on a list of priorities. Pitching, pitching and more pitching (and some decent 4th and 5th outfielders!) take precedence.
ReplyDeleteI have said this in past posts...
ReplyDeleteyou are facing a pitcher that has only 2 pitches...
a nasty split that started out with a release point that tells the batter that it is coming down the middle of the plate...
a straight fastball at around 94
Broxton is up with bases loaded after their pitcher walked a Met and hit another.
It was 2 outs but there was no place for him to go if the pitcher waled him too.
He either chose to or was instructed to NOT swing unless he saw that the pitch was definitely was going to be a 94 FB.
He swung and missed at the first time because by the time he could identify the pitch as being a fastball, his swing was too late.
The rest of the balls thrown were splits... that wound up in the dirt in front of the plate.
Add one more strike and it is...
3-2 BASES LOADED 9TH INNING
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the next pitch has to be a fastball dwon the middle... and this dude's FB doesn't move... it is totally hitable.
So does Broxton hit it? Or foul it off? Or nick the ball against the bat?
He has to go.
Mack, if you can't make contact there, you need to make it somehwere else - like Syracuse. I agree - gotta go.
ReplyDeleteNo really good solutions, but I'd send him down and bring up Gomez and hope he can recapture his spark.
Where the heck is Lowrie - why do the Mets always seem to get mystifyingly long injuries? I read he is about to start facing live BP - whoopy do.
Broxton is a 4th-5th outfielder who provides the Mets with superior defense and base-stealing ability and occasional pop.
ReplyDeleteOn a bench, you don't get all-around good players. You get guys, hopefully, who can excel at 1-2 things.
The problem with Keon is he has one swing. A big long swing. He needs to learn how to shorten it up, how to make changes.
Mets don't have option with him, can't be sent down. You either keep him or release him.
I am not in a hurry, on April 17, to throw him away.
But, yes, it was a frustrating AB.
Jimmy P
On TdA, again, this is April 18th. I believe he's had two starts. He missed all of last year due to TJ surgery. The Mets committed to him as backup catcher, earning $3+ million, because of his upside.
ReplyDeleteHe is a good teammate and once was a stone-cold hitter who has had his career derailed by injuries.
It's too soon to panic. This isn't a game board in someone's living room. These are real people and it's a long season in a very difficult sport. We have Travis now. Hopefully he'll get some more opportunities and the offense will click.
You can't just petulantly dump guys after a disappointing week. Baseball is a game of failure, of ups and downs. "Steady as she goes" is the mark of an able captain, even in storm-tossed seas.
Too soon to be quoting stats and pretending they have any meaning whatsoever. Again: It's April 18th.
Meanwhile: Rene Rivera is in AAA. There's a backup plan in place. We have not come close to reaching that point.
Jimmy P
Broxton has been around too long to learn how to shorten his swing - although he certainly should have long ago, with his otherwise fine tools. In the age of the 15 man offense and 10 man pitching staff, Keon is on my team.
ReplyDeleteIn 2019, when it is only 13 offensive players, job 1 for any hitter on a team is to be able to hit. Because pinch hitting options are far more limited. In 1969, with 2 extra guys to pinch hit with, Keon ain't getting up there. Mickey had virtually no choice.
I honestly do not know why a Broxton wouldn't have shortened his swing long ago - there are so many models of guys like the great slap hitter Matty Alou who knew the goal was to get on base and be able to avoid fanning in key situations.
d'Arnaud may have been out for ages - but he needs to hit here - 1 for 14 production is not a formula for success - or another move made. One factor in last year's demise of the Mets was non-hitting back stops. I would have liked to see him get as many ABs in the minors to de-rust as Todd Frazier - rather than work out the kinks (assuming that is what it is) in the big leagues.
Here is another perspective on Keon Broxton, which makes me wonder why he never took greater steps to hit balls early in the count and make contact:
ReplyDelete62% of his at career bats ended with 2 strikes (where he had from 0-4 balls).
59% of those (306 out of 518), he fanned.
He went .126 in those official at bats (58 / 459 = .126).
He walked or got HBP 98 times, which seems to indicate a desire to work the counts, but his K rate indicates a very limited ability to be successful in those counts.
If I were him, why not 1) be aggressive earlier in counts, to avoid getting to strike 2, and 2) shorten up in any 2 strike count.
A guy who stole 54 bases in the 219 times he has gotten on base other than by homer or triple has a real weapon once he actually gets on first or 2nd base. And another reason to be very aggressive with 0 or 1 strike is the fact that 42% of his hits are extra base hits, so a hit is not the same as a walk for him.
He clearly is still blazing fast - just 5 GIDPs in 832 plate appearances.
Much easier said than done, but it seems with his superior speed and power tools, making hitting adjustments for far more aggression and contact would be very helpful to him.
Because getting to 2 strikes is like the kiss of death for him.
Anyone wants to weigh in, feel free.
I'm frustrated by TDA, too, but I've got to agree with Jimmy P. here. Would you have advocated for sending Nimmo down after a horrific start with a strikeout rate that was far worse than TDA's, Tom? I think Nimmo's batting close to .400 since reaching his nadir about a week ago. TDA may be capable of turning it around just as quickly. There are bigger fish to fry right now. His presence isn't costing them games, the pitching is.
ReplyDeleteMaybe when Frazier returns, which could be tomorrow. Broxton is the one who goes. His main value is solid D, as a late-inning replacement, for which we already have Lag.
ReplyDeleteWith Guillorme already upstate, who deserves demotion more?
Broxton brings more value to Mets than Todd Frazier, who can only take away ABs from J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil and Dom Smith.
ReplyDeleteShipping off valuable players to make room for Todd is insane.
Again, contractually Broxton can't be sent down. Pretty sure about that, not positive. He would need to be released.
He's had 731 career ABs. Had .784 OPS in 2016. 21 HRs the next season. Only 78 ABs last year. I can see why Mets were interested in him. Yes, might end being a bust. But I don't trade for him and then give up on him after 30 ABs on April 18th. To make room for Todd? No, thanks.
Jimmy P
Jimmy, we 100% agree on Brox staying over Frazier.
ReplyDeletei will say this - Carlos Gomez gets hot (he's had a nice 4 games) and Brox stays cold, I can see that switch happening quick.
Dave, maybe I am missing something, but why didn't d'Arnaud stay in Florida longer to get more game hitting and catching action under his belt? I think 4 or 5 game starts over one added week would have done wonders.
The release him.
ReplyDeleteSend a message throughout the clubhouse
Which him?
DeleteBill, I think Mack meant to type, Then release him.
ReplyDeleteBill -
ReplyDeleteBroxton