Reese Kaplan -- Is Gio the Cure for What Ails Ya?

Is anyone else getting a déjà vu feeling about the 2019 baseball season?  In 2018 the Mets started off like a house afire and then the roof caved in.  For the team last season it was mostly a problem with the offense (as it has been almost since the franchise began).  Yes, there was the spate of injuries that derailed the team from contention, but most of the time you figured the pitching would keep them at least reasonably close. 

Fast forward a year with the change in the front office and the aggressive additions to the roster, and now we’re in Bizarro Mets World in which scoring runs isn’t the problem, preventing the opposition from scoring is.   The starting rotation has been either horribly inconsistent (or just horrible).  The bullpen has been the same.  At least out there you have an Edwin Diaz.  There’s no one in the starting rotation who has been consistently good.  Hell, the best start they’ve gotten lately came from Jason Vargas of all unlikely people.

Consequently when the Yankees and Gio Gonzalez agreed to part ways, it was a little surprising and enough to get the fans’ appetites salivating.  After all, Gonzalez was a left handed thorn in the Mets’ side for many years as an anchor in the Washington Nationals rotation.  He’s a two-time All-Star with a career 3.69 ERA.  He’s got a 21-win season under his belt as well.  In his age 33 season there’s no reason to believe his tank is empty. 

Still, it was a little puzzling that in this seemingly collusion-like environment for free agents this past off-season the best Gonzalez could land was a minor league deal with the Yankees late into the off-season, so late, in fact, he was left behind when the club went north.  

The deal was an interesting one.  He would be paid $3 million when he made it to the majors, plus $300K for each start he made.  From Gonzalez’ perspective, if he made even just 20 starts for the Yankees, the would collect $9 million in total.  While that’s a steep drop from the $12 million per season for the past three years, it’s not exactly chump change.

Furthermore, Gonzalez has not exactly been chopped liver during his post-21-win season either.  In the subsequent five years he’s gone 68-57 with a 2.46 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio and a 3.72 ERA.  It’s not necessarily top of the rotation stuff, but as a 4/5 starter he’s certainly acceptable. 

Gio’s Yankees contract contained an April 20^th out clause which he was rumored to be looking to execute before the Yankees apparently beat him to the punch.  He was not exactly turning heads in the minor league camp, pitching to an ERA of 6.00.  (For comparison’s sake, the much maligned Jason Vargas, with his stellar 4 innings this weekend, has finally dropped below double digits to a still-fugly 9.58 ERA).

Now if you delve a little deeper you will see that in his last two starts Gonzalez won both, first going 6 innings of 3 hit shutout ball with 10 Ks to just 1 walk.  Then he followed that up with a win against Buffalo with 5 IP, 8 hits, 2 runs, 8 Ks and 2 BBs.  Bear in mind that Buffalo lineup includes guys like Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, sons who look to surpass the exploits of their dads.  

   

Now everyone is already on the “Sign Gio” bandwagon (though many were there long before the season started).  Ironically, he may wind up with more money now than he potentially could have gotten from the Yankees had he ascended back to the majors.  There are plenty of teams besides the Mets in need of starting pitching and they may be willing to pay up to get it.  Think of him as the poor man’s Dallas Keuchel – less money, fewer years, similar results.  DK is a 3.66 ERA pitcher for his career with more hits and fewer strikeouts. 

There are, of course, other routes the Mets could take to address their pitching woes.  The trade market is, unlike during the Alderson years, a distinct possibility.  Dominic Smith would seem to be the lead name going in any deal, but it’s also possible that BVW might reach deep into the minors for low level prospects to sweeten the deal to try to snag someone like Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays or Tanner Roark from the Reds or Jeff Samardzija from the Giants or any of Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner or Dan Strailey from the Orioles.