Tom Brennan - THE TORTURE OF JAKE DEGROM...AND JOY OF DOM SMITH

One form of torture?  

A prolonged period of deprivation. 

It could be lack of sleep..or food..or lack of wins.

Enter our torture victim - Jake deGrom.

Jake deGrom struggled mightily during his 2018 Cy Young year to win games, ending up just 10-9 with 13 no decisions despite an ERA that landed on the incredible 1.70 plateau.

This year, it looked like the "win tide" was turning, that his pitching excellence would be rewarded with W's galore.

He allowed no runs in his first two season starts, unfettered brilliance, and was 2-0.

Ten starts after those two gems, through June 1, and he goes....WHAT?  

1 AND 5 IN 10 STARTS???  JUST 1 AND 5???

Even he would admit that he had 3 stinkers in his last 10 starts, very uncharacteristically.  He deserved to lose those 3.

He is human after all - a bad start every now and then will happen.

In the other 7 of his last 10 starts, he allowed 0 runs once, 1 run in three starts, 2 runs in two starts, and 3 runs in one start.

And he is 1 and 5 in his last 10 starts, despite those 7 fine starts.  Should have been 5-4 instead, but how would that constitute torture?

Really...how tortured must he feel?

Jake in his career is 58-46 (just .558), with a glistening 2.73 ERA, but getting a W in just 38.4% of his starts, despite his brilliance.

Cy Young top 3 finalist last year, Aaron Nola, is already 6-1 despite a 4.63 ERA.  47-29 (.618), despite a career 3.49 ERA, three quarters of a run higher than Jake's, and a win in 44.3% of his career starts.

Jake has to feel tortured - except of course for his huge contract extension.

But winning 38.4% of your starts when you are one of the ten best starters on the planet?  Tortured.

Besides Nola, how are other peers doing by comparison?  

FAR BETTER, overall.

Max Scherzer?  

Winner of 65.1% of his career decisions as a starter, and a winning decision in 47.3% of his starts, despite an ERA nearly half a run higher at 3.22.   If Mighty Mad Max only won starts at Jake's 38.4% pace, he would have 31 fewer career wins.

Clayton Kershaw?  

Winner of 69.6% of his career decisions as a starter, and a winning decision in 48.6% of his starts.  He has had a better ERA, 2.42 vs. 2.73, so he deserves to do somewhat better than Jake.   But if he only won starts at Jake's 38.4% pace, he would have 34 fewer career wins.

That very substantial difference in career win rate (Kershaw 48.6%, Scherzer 47.3%, but Jake at just 38.4%) will probably end up meaning that the first two make the Hall of Fame, but Jake does not.  

Heck, Jake even is the best hitter of the 3 in his career:

Jake: .190/.223/.232 (.240 with a .400 slug % in 2019).

Max:  .188/.219/.212

Kershaw: .160/.205/.184

By way of comparison:

All of baseball pitchers' splits in 2019?  Just .123/.142/.156.

All of non-Mets pitchers' splits in 2019? Just .116/.151/.150.

Mets' pitchers in 2019? An outstanding .213/.229/.339.

Let me get back on point:

Even that excellent Jake hitting does not help Jake win more.

If  Jake was winning starts at the same rate as Max and Kershaw, Jake would have 73 wins now, not 58.  Big difference. 

Max and Jake haven't been tortured. Jake has.


Imagine if Jake deGrom had a real bullpen to back him up?  This year and last, would he have won ten more games?  I'd say, ABSOLUTELY.  And he would not be tortured.

WE, THE LONG-TIME SUFFERING METS FANS, ARE TORTURED TOO.

SECONDARILY - LIKE SECOND HAND SMOKE.

BUT FAN TORTURE IS REAL IN QUEENS.  

IN THE BRONX?  A VIRTUALLY TORTURE-FREE ZONE. 


P.S.

Let's move on from torture - to pleasure.

Brandon Nimmo in a rehab game for St Lucie last night - 2 for 4.  Yay!  And...

Dominic Smith - has he been outstanding, or what?  

Oft-criticized by me in 2017 and 2018, he is CRUSHING IT AT AN UNCONSCIOUS .373/.468/.612!

Sadly, only 79 plate appearances this year, a pace that would have him up only 200 times in all of 2019.  But, if he had enough at bats to qualify, he'd have baseball's HIGHEST average, HIGHEST OBP, and 10th in slugging % (just ahead of an obscure guy named Mike Trout).

I harped on Smith's 2017 and 2018 failures - now, his only failure is not twisting Mickey Callaway's arm behind his back until he writes his name on the line up card.

So, exactly why is that Pete Alonso dude playing first instead of Smith?  Oh, 20 homers, that's right,  only the second Mets rookie to have 20 or more homers (record is 26, by Straw) - but he has nearly 100 games left in 2019.  

May Pounding Pete be the first Mets rookie to hit - not 27...not 30...not 40...but FIFTY.

I wonder...I just wonder...if the Mets are starting to wonder if Alonso should be moved in 2020 to 3rd and Smith to first.  I know, I know...Pete's defense.  But, WOW, that offense!

Of course, the slow-as-molasses Rusty Staub played most of his long career in the outfield, so why not Smith?  

Well, maybe Rusty was not always that slow - he stole 47 of 80 in his career...but he was never fast - you get the point, tho'. He was, however, Grand...and Orange.