Good Afternoon, Mets' fans!
In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean). I will continue to do so as the playoffs move along, while also predicting who I think will ultimately win each series the rest of the way.
Yesterday, I took a stab at the NLCS, so today we will take a deeper look at the ALCS (I meant to post this a bit sooner today, but I actually got out of the house and went to see the new movie Joker......entertaining, but VERY dark).
Saturday, October 12th @ 808 PM in Houston, TX (Seven Game Series)
New York Yankees (106-59) versus Houston Astros (110-57)
Masahiro Tanaka Zack Greinke
1. LAST 30 - New York (21-9), Houston (20-10)
2. RUN DIFF - New York (+3), Houston (-3)
3. FUNDAMENTALS (all);
a. DEFENSE - New York (.983%, 95 E), Houston (.988%, 71 E)
b. BASERUNNING - New York (55 SB, 63 SBA), Houston (65 SB, 75 SBA)
c. BULLPEN - New York (50/78 SV = 64%), Houston (45/65 SV = 69%)
4. ROAD % - New York (47-35), Houston (47-36)
5. HEAD 2 HEAD - Houston won four out of the seven games during the regular season, which included a three game sweep at home in April, but they lost three out of four to the Yankees in New York in late June. Based on the June series, the Astros have to be stoked to have home field advantage (although these two juggernauts have not seen each other in four months).
ANALYSIS/PICK - Well, this is pretty much what everyone wanted to see in the American League, isn't it? A modern day "Clash of the Titans", I suppose. Based on the regular season series and MOST of the listed metrics, these two are evenly matched and this series is likely to go the distance. IF that is the case, then it will be the "little things" that end up deciding who advances to the World Series and who does not.
Both teams can absolutely RAKE at the plate and they are both have effective pitching staffs (giving the nod to the Astros rotation, but perhaps the Yankees are a bit better in the bullpen). Houston is one of the best defensive teams in baseball, while the Yankees are merely average with the glove, so keep an eye on this as the series progresses.
However, the key to the series in my humble opinion will be how Game One unfolds (much like the NLCS). Due to the extended series that the Astros had with the Rays, they had to burn their two best starters just to advance, while the Yankees have been resting for the past week after sweeping the Twins. Unless the Yankees "have gone a bit rusty" in the interim, they are well rested and they have the pitching staff set up the way the want. Houston is countering with Zack Grienke, who is arguably their third or fourth best starter.
If the Astros win Game One, they can follow up with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, which is a huge advantage. If not, then they are behind the proverbial eight ball with the pressure shifting to the Astros aces and the Yankees taking over home field advantage in the series. I know, if's and but's..........in the end, the Astros have a bit more starting pitching which is helpful in a long series. I like them to knock out the Yankees in seven games, much like the regular season series between these two teams.
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