Francisco Alvarez - Macks Mets
"COULD FRANCISCO ALVAREZ BE ON A JUAN SOTO TIME SCHEDULE?"
I think the short answer to that question is:
"Most likely no."
Juan Soto Wikipedia
After all, VERY few players these days play almost an entire season at age 19 like Juan Soto did.
Dwight Gooden did, for sure.
Otherwise, it's really rare.
Soto deserved it. He may be a bit immature at times, but he is simply great. Scary good for his age.
Anyway...in the beginning:
At age 17, Soto was like a ball of fire in rookie ball.
Mostly in the GCL, but with a late bump up to the next level; in 51 games, Soto went a tremendous .368/.420/.553.
At age 17, in 2019, Francisco Alvarez did very well...
but not quite as well as Soto did, in rookie ball:
Mostly in the GCL, but with a late bump up to the next level, in 42 games, Alvarez went a very fine .312/.407/.510.
But there is a fairly big gap between the two statistical results, between "tremendous" and just "very fine", so that kills my far-fetched "Alvarez-on-the-Mets-at-19" idea, right?
Well......Not so fast.
At age 18, you see, Soto played just 32 games and had 111 (admittedly great) at bats.
He got to the majors early the next year despite missing all that "age 18" time.
He got to the majors early the next year despite missing all that "age 18" time.
At age 18, Francisco Alvarez could play not Soto's mere 32 games, but 100 or more games in full season A ball, getting promoted to AA at some point in the season, if he is really that talented. Play a lot more, improve faster.
After a long and successful 2020, a short stint in AAA in spring 2021 could potentially have him at Citifield for most of 2021, at...the age of 19.
So I may be the only one even thinking this way, but I am not ruling an "Alvarez at Citifield in 2021" scenario just yet - although it clearly remains unlikely.
As being a catcher involves more than just how one hits, I will note that Alvarez seems to have normal tightening up to do defensively, as any 17 year old catcher would.
At 17, he there out 29% of base runners, certainly an OK number, but he also allowed 15 passed balls in just 27 games at catcher! That number would have to drop a lot.
Still, a full season in 2020, at age 18, playing over 100 games and having him catch 80 or more games, would give him plenty of time to significantly improve behind the dish.
Throw in some winter ball, and voila!
Throw in some winter ball, and voila!
Alvarez in Queens in 2021, anyone?
If anyone can make it in 2021 in Queens, he can.
If anyone can make it in 2021 in Queens, he can.
The difference is that Alvarez is on a Bartolo Colon training regimen which, for the physically challenging position of catcher, may not be the wisest course to take.
ReplyDeleteAlvarez better watch the weight - we don't need another 2017 Dom Smith flubber arrival
ReplyDeleteNever wise to rush a catcher. Go ask Francisco Pena.
ReplyDeletePlay him in Columbia in the spring and target him to end the season in St. Lucie.
He has a lot to polish.
Play Ramos in 2020 and extend him in 2o21.
Then try and blow this whole plan up with a 5+ yr signing of Realmulto
With the automated strike zone just a few years away catching skills like framing etc are going to be a lot less important. Also look at Kelenic, the Mariners have stated he could make it up to the majors later this year just 2.5 years after being drafted. I wouldn't rule out anyone moving up fast if they perform. I wouldnt be surprised to see SWR up with they Jays late this year either...
ReplyDeleteDallas -
ReplyDeleteBut that isn't how the Mets crawl.
Alvarez could be dealt for Marte as well.
ReplyDeleteJohn: Bite your tongue!!!
ReplyDeleteAlvarez is the future. He stays.
ReplyDeleteI hope he stays. People who are in tenuous positions do not always act prudently. Steve Phillips tried trading David Wright for Jose Cruz Jr at the trade deadline the last year he was the GM. Luckily, Toronto turned it down.
ReplyDeleteMack: Its not how the Mets have crawled but philosophies shift with changes in front office and various positions. The Mets have also not had any special position players (from HS) for a long time. Reyes & Wright were probably the last and both did not spend a lot of time in the minors and were up at the ages of 20 & 21. I think McNeil, Conforto, Alonso are special but they also had college seasoning and Conforto was up in less than a year so I think there is precedent.
ReplyDeleteI think it will be interesting to see where guys like Alvarez, Vientos, Allen, Wolf, Valdez, and Magnum open up this spring.
ReplyDeleteShould speak volumes regarding how our new minor league suits wil operate.
Hope they all go straight to Binghamton along with Wilmer Reyes for the best in Binghamton's history - as it will probably be the last.
ReplyDeleteVientos HAS to go to at least St Lucie, and I think that is the best place for him starting 2020.
ReplyDeleteMan, I would have Allen, Wolf, Alvarez and Magnum in full season ball. Mangum possibly in St Lucie, but I'd favor a brief stint in Columbia.
Valdez? My guess is Brooklyn in 2020, along with Adrian Hernandez. Dudes are young and inexperienced. That is the only tough call, since they lose about 60 games if they don't go straight to Columbia.