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3/9/20

Reese Kaplan -- A Controversial Money Saving Move to Consider



When you get Mets fans sitting around and talking about the solid foundation built by various front office members over the past few years, there’s a uniformity in the belief that you don’t tamper with the core.  Based upon what we saw in the second half of last year, that nexus for the future would include Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano (due to salary), Amed Rosario, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, some starting pitchers and some relievers.  Note that Wilson Ramos (poor defense, expiring contract), Yoenis Cespedes (a “boar-densome” salary), Jed Lowrie (or whatever remains of him), and others on one-year deals do not qualify. 

Going into 2021 there is plenty of room for change as a number of players are hitting important career milestones.  Marcus Stroman, for example, is free agent eligible after this season.  Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard are on for one more year at best before the lure of the highest bidder starts yodeling in their ears.  Justin Wilson is a free agent.  Ditto Brad Brach.  Dellin Betances has a one year option.  The same contract decisions apply to others as well.

Let’s assume your infield is locked up with Alonso, Cano, Rosario and McNeil right to left.  That’s certainly not too shabby even if Cano’s best days were in the Bronx and at the coffee shops of Seattle.  The 2020 season is a big proving year for J.D. Davis who demonstrates that 2019 was not an illusion or some combination of pitcher experience with him or shoulder woes inhibit similar performance achievements.  Brandon Nimmo needs to prove he can stay healthy with no real outfielders threatening his job in the upper minors.  Michael Conforto has made himself into a credible right fielder and an offensive threat.  The only real offensive position at risk appears to be catcher.


So if you’re the Mets and you have a lot of money coming off the books, how do you grow and/or reinforce what you already have?  Many are advocating a long term deal for Michael Conforto that will prevent him from ever sniffing the filet mignon dinners offered during the free agent courtship of other teams.  Bear in mind that he is observant about other outfielders in the game such as Christian Yelich who just inked a $200 million deal, Nick Castellanos who went for 4 years/$64 million ($16 million per year) and Charlie Blackmon currently earning over $21 million per season.  Many are saying Mookie Betts will double what Yelich got.  What then is Conforto worth?

Well, first you can look at the WAR numbers.  Conforto has accumulated 12.8 WAR over approximately 4 full seasons worth of ABs.  That’s 3.25 per year.  If a single WAR is worth $8 million, then he’s looking around $25 million per year.  That’s some heavy duty payroll action and not really commensurate with the inclination the Mets have shown to stay under the $208 million payroll total before incurring penalties.    


My wild thought is heavily dependent on the season produced by J.D. Davis.  If he can put together a close to 30 HR/85 RBI season while hitting close to .300, would the club be better off inserting him into right field in place of Conforto and then trading Conforto for a new catcher or several minor league reinforcements?  Remember, in his one almost full season in the majors Davis produced just 1.0 WAR as a testament to his subpar defense.  He did hit .307 with 22 HRs and 57 RBIs in just over 400 ABs, so there was no question about his bat.  What could he do with 500+ ABs and a steady diet at one defensive position?

The other side of this question is what would you do with the money you save in not extending Michael Conforto?  Well, there’s pitching to consider.  Syndergaard, Stroman, Wacha, Porcello, Wilson and others are all slated to leave next year or sing their swan song in 2021.  Right now in baseball good pitching is much harder to find than good hitting.  Might it be smarter to lock up the shorter supply of decent arms while making do with solid bats like Davis?  Also remember that if Brandon Nimmo is indeed your centerfielder and you trade away Conforto, then there is an opening for LF.  Does it go to also defensively-challenged Dom Smith?  What about Jeff McNeil with room on the infield opening up for Andres Gimenez?  What about a fresh face from outside the organization?

I know everyone is always against trading away homegrown players, but from a business perspective does it make more sense to lean on the very inexpensive bat of Davis and let someone else both pay for Michael Conforto AND give you resources in return?

Fire away.

17 comments:

  1. This is a tough team to evaluate fyture directions right now.

    A new owner with buckets full of FA $$$ would instantly change the direction of the ship.

    Putting that aside, I would keep Conforto and would try to lock him up for another 3-5 years.

    As for catcher (I know you do not like this guy), I would exercise the option on Ramos's contract and look for a solution in 2022 at this position.

    Lastly... we need to lock up another starter past Jake. This whole rotation falls apart after the next 2 seasons.

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  2. Reese,
    It depends on what the Mets are trying to do going forward. Do they want to have a team that has a chance to win it all on a yearly basis or do they want to pretend one year and go backwards the next.

    Enough money is coming off the books after this year for the Mets to lock up Conforto and Syndergaard and possibly Matz depending on how he pitches. Bear in mind that the Mets have a very cheap infield aside from Cano and aside from Cespedes, they also have a cheap outfield.

    The way the Mets become cheaper in the future is to continue to build their minor leagues and having them replace expensive players as their contracts expire. But every team has their deGrom's, Syndergaards, Conforto who are just part of the core and must remain with the team as long as possible.

    JD Davis is a bad outfielder out of LF, I can only imagine the horror of having him in RF. Having Smith in LF and Davis in RF and Nimmo who is not really a CF is scary.

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  3. I don't like the extreme solutions. We could go for top FAs like Betts and Realmuto, or go the way of the Rays, Marlins and others, keeping the kids and dumping anyone ready for a jump in pay. Neither of those works for me.

    Rather than a repeat of the Wheeler scenario, waiting until a player is close to FA and becoming super - expensive, I'd look to lock up those we want to keep who are 2 years still under contract.

    Select the most desirable of Pete, Squirrel, Nimmo, 4to, Amed, Thor, Matz, Stroman, Diaz, et al, and see which are extendable at reasonable cost. Those who go the Reyes route and refuse to even negotiate before FA time should be traded ASAP.

    Before I'd consider contracts like those given to Harper and Machado, which would dominate the budget without depth, I'd solidify the core while the kids like Mauricio, Baty, Allan, Gimenez, Wolf. Vientos and others are nearing ML-reasiness.

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  4. I hope BVW has a hand shake agreement with Realmuto for signing him this offseason, if not pickup Ramos’s option year.

    If Conforto doesn’t sign this season than I would try and trade him if you can get more back than you would in letting him go after 2021 season. If not you keep him.

    Same as conforto regarding Syndergard and Matz. I will be praying for at least one of Peterson, Szapuki, or Humphrey‘a to take over for one of the spots.

    I would also try and get Betts or Springer in offseason to man CF.


    I also think you can get corner outfielders for relativity cheap and one year contracts in free agency so you may not need to go all in on Conforto.

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    Replies
    1. Zozo, what do you think those guys would cost, and what would they do to the budget?

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  5. The path to the future should come into sharper focus by mid season.

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  6. Viper

    Syndergaard will NEVER re-sign with the Mets.

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  7. Bill

    Look for another Davis or Wilson

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  8. We should always be doing that, Mack, but those are crapshoots. Start with the core, as Michaels did in the Bronx 25 years ago. Keep the known ahead of the unknown.

    As for Thor, you may be right. But that doesn't mean (as with Reyes and Wheeler) that we shouldn't find out and act accordingly.

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  9. Bill

    Forget the fact that Thor is a loner and aloof.

    After Wheeler getting what he got... he will seek the big bucks.

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  10. Mack,
    Syndergaard has said several times how much he enjoys playing with the Mets. Now, lets say the Mets make him a deGrom type offer and he refuses to even negotiate, then he becomes trade bait. But teams that want to compete, find ways to lock up their core players. You cannot have deGrom and four pretenders and expect to win.

    The Mets are build around pitching, if they lose that, they are the Marlins.

    If they give Syndergaard more money than deGrom, you know that he will opt out if his contract is not re-negotiated.

    But as I said, either you are with the big boys or kiddies.

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  11. The ting about Conforto is that the Mets winning/losing is almost in direct correlation with Conforto's performance. When he is hurt/underperforming, the Mets are losing. When he is outperforming, the Mets are winning.

    And it is more than any other Met.

    Taking him out of the equation may not be a good move.

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  12. Not to switch topics, but hitless wonder Nido is 0 for 2 today and 2 for 15 on the spring. How do you spell "DFA"? Not yet, of course, but come on. I'd rather have Rene R back there.

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  13. You just want Rene R. for the cool breeze his many swings and misses produce during the long, hot summer.

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  14. Mets should have offered Russel Martin a contract.

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  15. Don't expect the Mets to expand the payroll in the least while they're still shopping for a buyer. The size of the payroll is one of the things working against them already (and it's not even above the limit).

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