23. Casey Martin, SS/OF, Arkansas
Martin is a tantalizing talent. He has above-average power
and top-of-the-scale speed; he hit .310/.389/.542 over three years in the SEC;
and he should play a premium position (likely center
field). Why is he ranked this low? Because Martin has well-below-average
pitch recognition and is helpless against breaking balls. He struck out in more
than 24 percent of his career plate appearances (including 30 percent in 2020),
and finished with a 2.46 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Will Wilson, who went 15th last
June to the Los Angeles Angels, was considered risky because of his 1.61
strikeout-to-walk ratio. (The Angels traded Wilson over the winter to dump Zack
Cozart's contract.) Martin's potential is immense; so are his odds of realizing
it.
12. Heston
Kjerstad, OF — Arkansas
Little surprised Kjerstad got this kind of love despite the
“ranking” community running with this range from Day 1.
Why?
Because college players with hit tool questions should scare
everyone, and Kjerstad is not a great athlete, so it’s his bat you’re leaning
on for value.
But Kjerstad was off to the kind of start to 2020 you want to
see from a prospect entering the year with such questions. He went 30-for-67
with seven walks, five doubles and six homers.
“I think of Kjerstad was a right-handed hitter we wouldn’t
hear Top 10 talk about him. He’s not a first-rounder for me,” said one scout
tasked with helping put his club’s board together. “Interesting player, yes,
but some work to do there, and honestly I’m not certain I see a big enough
payoff in the end. What’s the upside here? Ryan Klesko?”
offered up their list
of their top 50 college prospects that will be available in the 2020 draft.
37. Ian Seymour,
LHP, Virginia Tech
http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2019/11/28/2020-cbd-top-100-countdown-74-ian-seymour-virginia-tech/
- As a freshman in 2018, Ian posted a 4.17 ERA in 69 innings with 70 strikeouts
and a WHIP of 1.30 over 13 starts and 1 relief appearance.
This past season with Virginia Tech he improved his ERA to
3.97 over 70 innings and increased his strikeout total to 81.
He built upon that and had a great showing in the Cape Cod
League with a 2.49 ERA in 5 starts and 25.1 innings pitched with 39 strikeouts
and a WHIP of just 1.04.
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https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-25-seniors-we-want-to-see-in-college-baseball-in-2021/ -
10. Kyle Mora,
RHP, UCLA
A durable, dominant reliever in the mold of so many UCLA
pitchers of the past, Mora has been a true workhorse for the Bruins. In 124.1
career innings spread over 96 appearances, he has a 2.10 ERA, 127 strikeouts
and a .190 opponent batting average.
The 2020 season was shaping up to be his best yet, what with
a 0.96 ERA, 15 strikeouts and a .194 opponent batting average in 9.1 innings.
He had also yet to allow an extra-base hit. Getting Mora back for a fifth
season in 2021 would be a great start for UCLA building up yet another monster
of a pitching staff.
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Seth Lonsway, LHP, Ohio State (unranked to No. 50)
Lonsway has one of the best curves in the Draft, combining
power and depth, and he also boosted his velocity to 93-96 mph this spring.
That combination helped him lead D-I in strikeout rate (21.0 per nine innings)
and he might have pitched himself into the first round had he not walked eight
in two innings against Stetson in his final start.
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I don’t want anyone with huge strikeout issues. That trial failed with Vicente Lupis and Ivan Wilson. Sign a guy like that after the 5 rounds. OK, I guess.
ReplyDeleteKjerstad? We can only afford one non-athletic great hitting OF at a time. By the time he would arrive, a bat-first existing guy would have to go.
Caraway for the pen? The next Billy Wagner would be nice.
The site is now not opening up the You Tube videos.
ReplyDeleteMy apologies.