Reese Kaplan -- So How Did The Mets With Their #1?

The June draft has come and gone with the Mets having chosen someone that most people are excited to have as a part of the future team.  Pete Crow-Armstrong is a graduate  of the same high school that produced recent major leaguers Max Fried of the Braves, Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals and Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.  Although he was ranked anywhere from 15 to 22 on the draft lists published worldwide, it seemed that many were surprised that he was still available when slot 19 for the Mets rolled around.  

The standard positive analysis of his game has to do with his capabilities of playing centerfield.  Many have said he is superior in that regard to converted infielder Juan Lagares (which is pretty high praise considering Lagares earned a Gold Glove out there). 

Between his defensive acumen and his baserunning speed many feel he is ready to star in the majors when he is ready.  In fact, folks think he is so advanced in his development that 2022 might be when he makes his debut (at 20 years of age).  Click here to see video of Pete Crow-Armstrong at the plate.

Crow-Armstrong has shown a great ability to make contact but it’s mostly been for singles and doubles, not the long ball.  Many people develop power as they mature like Jeff McNeil did, but more do not.  If he’s going to make it in today’s major leagues he’d better be stealing 50+ bases annually to sniff a regular playing role.  If he can add some double digit power to his game, then the stolen base becomes a valuable accessory but not the prime reason he’s in the majors.

For a comparison, the name I saw used more than once was Dexter Fowler who has split his pro career between the Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.  The long and lean Fowler has shown good baserunning speed, averaging about 20 bases per season, but also has the home run tool, having his 17, 18 and 19 per season in recent years.  That combination along with defense has led him to five year $82.5 million contract ($16.5 million per season) as he closes out his career.  Right now he’s 34 and he will be paid something for this year as well as 2021.  In 2022 he may try again as a free agent, but the salary level is likely to reduce.  For a player providing about 2.0 WAR per season, he’s making the grade in earning his place.  

The choice of Crow-Armstrong was a little surprising to some Mets fans who felt burned by recent unusual top picks like Gavin Cecchini, Reese Havens, Lastings Milledge, Jason Tyner, Robert Stratton and Ryan Jaroncyk.  Sometimes you are forgiving if a guy playing an offensively challenged position like shortstop doesn’t wow you with the bat, but when you draft outfielders number one and they fall off the face of the earth you leave fans scratching their heads about the selection process.

Don’t get me wrong.  Many people were apoplectic when Sandy Alderson used his number one draft pick on a scrap heap outfielder from a disorganized program in Brandon Nimmo.  That he has grown into an on-base machine with 20 HR power and decent (if not acceptable) defense has been a most pleasant surprise to many of us.  On the flip side, you had a guy like Jeff McNeil sink to the 12th round of the 2013 draft.  No one expected stardom but it just demonstrates that draft science isn’t what it could be.  After all, Hall of Famer Mike Piazza was taken in the 62nd round ahead of only 5 other players in all of baseball.  

Most folks were rooting for the Mets to go pitching-first as they have done in many other high levels of the draft.  Taking an outfielder who does not have Pete Alonso power was a bit of a surprise but the consensus among scouts, writers and fans has been uniformly positive.  Let’s hope that faith is well earned.