Mets360 - Projection Review: The good – Jacob deGrom- the bad – Amed Rosario – and the ugly – Steven Matz

 

By Brian Joura October 22, 2020

Each year before the season starts, we put up a projection for players thought to have a big role in the upcoming campaign. Then, once the season is over, we do a review of how the projections turned out. As you might have heard, this year was a little wacky. So, instead of doing an individual review of each player, we’re going to do one lump review. And since we didn’t have a full season, we’ll just focus on OPS for hitters and ERA for pitchers. Not all projection systems were available at the time of the original projection we did, so the composite will include between three and five forecasts.

Wilson Ramos
Composite FG/B-R projections – .756 OPS
Mets360 – .775
Actual – .684
Best – THE BAT .729

J.D. Davis
Composite FG/B-R projections – .789 OPS
Mets360 – .805
Actual – .761
Best – THE BAT .773

Brandon Nimmo
Composite FG/B-R projections – .787
Mets360 – .915
Actual – .888
Best – Mets360

Michael Conforto
Composite FG/B-R projections – .853
Mets360 – .875
Actual – .927
Best – Mets360

Amed Rosario
Composite FG/B-R projections – .728
Mets360 – .750
Actual – .643
Best – THE BAT .708

Jeff McNeil
Composite FG/B-R projections – .838
Mets360 – .915
Actual – .836
Best – ZiPS .835

Robinson Cano
Composite FG/B-R projections – .757
Mets360 – .760
Actual – .896
Best – Steamer .775

Pete Alonso
Composite FG/B-R projections – .898
Mets360 – .940
Actual – .817
Best – Steamer .876

Jacob deGrom
Composite FG/B-R projections – 2.93 ERA
Mets360 – 2.06
Actual – 2.38
Best – Mets360

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