Let's take a break from the early Hot Stove season speculation and reflect for a bit on what's gone right, what's gone wrong. I feel like a victim in some kind of futuristic video game when I suggest to fellow Mets fans that Brodie Van Wagenen was not all bad, yet those same types react the same way when I suggest that Terry Collins was.
During the recently concluded Van Wagenen Wilpon Buddy session he made a number of moves, some of which actually worked and some of which, well, they will become part of an MBA course on baseball business on how not do do things. Take Justin Wilson, for example. He was paid a mid-tier price and when he was healthy he delivered. For the Mets he pitched one real season and one short season. During that time he went an aggregate of 68 games he was 6-3 with a 2.91 ERA while striking out 10.3 per 9 IP and somehow snagged 4 saves in unplanned closing duties. For that performance he was paid $5 million per season. That was a good move.
Then there was the parlaying of little known minor leaguers to the Astros for equally little known J.D. Davis. None of the minor leaguers has amounted to much for Houston, but in his first season for the Mets Davis batted .307 with 22 HRs and 57 RBIs while accumulating about 2/3's of a season in ABs. That one was a clear winner for New York, even with the slow down in 2020 while they tried to figure out where to play Davis. His bat had better return to form or his glove will bury him (unless he can become a DH somewhere).
Even the much maligned trade of Jared Kelenic, Gerson Bautista and salary dumps of Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano last season turned out to be something good. Diaz put together an unbelievable season with incredible strikeout prowess while keeping his ERA down to a miniscule 1.75 ERA with 50 Ks in 26 innings pitched. Wow.
Robinson Cano (with apparently some chemical assistance) delivered a .316 batting average while alternating between second base and DH. That's 11 points higher than his lifetime average. He's now a lost cause, of course, but you can't dispute what he did during the 2020 season as evidenced by what you'll see printed on his baseball card. Of course, there may not be a 2021 card for Cano with his PED usage resulting in a 162 game suspension, but give the man (and his PEDs) some credit for what was delivered.
On the flip side, the Seattle side of the deal is not all bad either. Between A ball and AA ball Kelenic delivered 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 20 SBs and a .291 average. The only down side thus far is the high 111 Ks in 443 ABs, which is about a 25% rate, but he looks like a very solid prospect.
Gerson Bautista is a tall and skinny flamethrower who has not exactly lit the world on fire in his brief trials in the big leagues. For the Mets he pitched to a 12.48 ERA. For Seattle he was slightly better, lowering his ERA to a still ghastly 11.00 but at just age 24 it's possible he will amount to something.
Prospect Justin Dunn did far better than Bautista. He had 10 starts in 2020, went 4-1 with a mediocre 4.34 ERA and walked nearly as many as he struck out. However, also just age 24 there is room for growth, so at best I'd call him an unfinished project.
The major league players in the deal have both been banished from Seattle. Jay Bruce was cast aside during the 2019 season and between the Mariners and Phillies he hit just .216 while delivering 26 HRs with 59 RBIs for a salary of $14 million. In 2020 while still on the Mariners payroll he delivered even less with a sub-Mendoza batting average with just 6 HRs and 14 RBIs. So far his loss to the Mets is a gain in their payroll.
Anthony Swarzak faced a similar fate during 2019. He split his year between Seattle and Atlanta where combined he delivered a 4.56 ERA while allowing way too many baserunners. He could only land a pair of minor league deals with the Philllies during 2020 and he's again a free agent looking for someone looking for a veteran reliever who really can't get people out.
So if you reexamine the deal, it's basically become Kelenic and perhaps Dunn for Diaz along with $20.4 million of salary relief for one year of Robinson Cano. That's not a bad deal and right now whatever you see in Kelenic is potential vs. actual major league productivity from the players the Mets received (not to mention the salary relief from Bruce and Swarzak).
Yes, Brodie Van Wagenen made his share of boner plays as GM, including Keon Broxton, Billy Hamilton, Juan Lagares, Jake Marisnick, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, Wilmer Font, Carlos Gomez, Brooks Pounders, Joe Panik and Ruben Tejada. He bankrupted the farm system of many prospective future players. He did not achieve the level of winning expected when he was hired. However, there was good news to go along with the bad. His legacy may be proven when some of his well regarded draft picks make it to the majors. For now his grade is probably a D+, not an F.
I would give him a C-. And almost an Incomplete. ans who knows how many times his hands were tied by the Wilpons.
ReplyDeleteKelenic needs to be considered in light of his being the Mariners' # 1 prospect right now. If he had stayed with the Mets, he'd be their # 1 prospect right now.
If the Mets (as expected) use Cano's $24 mil to sign a top FA, the Kelenic trade return becomes Diaz and Bauer (or Springer or Realmuto).
ReplyDeleteLooks much better now.
It was a bad trade - giving up prospects - taking on salary to get a closer coming off a career year. It tied the Mets hands to take on additional $ and moved your 2B - Jeff McNeil off of his best position bc you had to play Cano given his salary.
ReplyDeleteBrodie wanted to make a splash with his first move and a big money player for a position he didn't need giving up a prospect in Kelenic for a position he needed - OF.
The question now seems to be will Sandy do something similar and trade for a SS he doesn't need to make a splash?
Once Frank Cashen could have gotten Dale Murphy for Howard Johnson and Dysktra but cooler heads prevailed.
Grading BVW will take some time. I have to give him an Incomplete at this point. I'll post this in two pieces.
ReplyDeleteFirst, I wrote up the next three paragraphs a couple months ago before the Cano suspension after reading a Van Wagenen bashing article on another site, but they are still (mostly) applicable:
I preface them with the statement "Obviously I can't see the inner workings of the team and where the issues are, but only follow results and read the articles."
(1) The Seattle trade: My reaction at the time of the trade was "Not Kelenic, but Diaz will certainly look good in New York". 2019 was unfortunate, but I feel with Diaz righting the ship a bit this year and Cano showing that he is still a true professional hitter, the book is still open on it. Obviously Kelenic can come up and be a hall of famer, but we have had a lot of #1 picks go the other way - Shawn Abner, Gregg Jeffries, Lastings Milledge, etc, etc, etc. In any trade, you have to give up something to get something and if Diaz can keep throwing in the coming years the way he did in 2018 and 2020, he may be the one in the HOF. I like the thought of breaking it down into two pieces - Kelenic for the best reliever in baseball for a previous two years still with a lot of team control as one piece and Dunn and the salary dumps for a proven hitter with a sweet swing that loves New York as the other. I am not nearly as unhappy as some commenters on the various sites.
(2) The Toronto trade: My reaction at the time was "not Simeon Woods Richardson". I was a fan of his and while he was drafted higher than his predicted slot at the time, I thought he had a good shot. I still do, but again, unproven talent. As for Stroman, I really liked the return. Proven for unproven. Obviously that was a point when they knew Wheeler wasn't coming back, and Stro is a proven competitor and pitcher. I don't know if there was anything more than COVID concerns for Marcus not to play this year, but without COVID, he sure looked ready to go earlier this spring.
(3) Wheeler: Could this one have been handled better? I agree that he should have been offered an extension prior to 2019, but once it got past that, I agree with Brodie - no way do I pay my #3 or #4 pitcher >$100M. Congrats to him if he can get it and pitch to that level for the next 5 years. Could they have done better for him in a mid-season 2019 trade than the supplemental draft pick (Greene, I think)? Perhaps, but that is hindsight as well. It almost paid off in 2019 with both Wheeler and Stroman in the rotation - an excellent second half by the team, coming up just short of a playoff spot. A little better May and June and they would have been there with a playoff rotation of deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Stroman . . That was World Series material.
Ok, now for the other:
ReplyDelete- Davis: His best trade
- Wilson: His best FA signing
- Broxton: Why give up players for him?
- Hamilton: Why give up a depth prospect for him?
- Marisnick: I liked the trade, but also wondered why they needed to give up prospects for a bench piece.
- Castro: If he can learn to throw strikes, a good trade; I did like Kevin Smith as upper level depth, but Castro probably has more upside;
Lastly, his drafts. I personally think he killed it here. Snagging Allan in the third round was brilliant. I like the two speed outfielders in 2020. Baty looks like a real good prospect and the other two pitchers Wolf and Ginn look good as well. I hope they do not trade any of BVW's top six picks.
So, the Seattle trade pushes the grade down a bit at this point, the Toronto trade may be even to a slight plus, with a lot of Covid bad luck, the Wheeler handling might have been done better, but if Greene turns into something, it might be a positive. Wheeler still has 4 years on that (to me) crazy contract.
Losing three recent high draft pick pitchers and the best overall prospect in the system created quite a hole and hurts for a bit, but I think he recovered well in his subsequent drafting.
The fringe stuff yielded some good and some not so good.
The drafts could turn out to be outstanding. (my feeling is that Allan will be a very good major league starter (Matt Harvey +))
One more thing that I have not seen associated with BVW at all, and wonder how much he should be on the hook for, but the lousy fundamental play, baserunning, and team defense in 2020 had to be hung someplace. Is that just on the manager? I think not, as today's GMs are much more involved in day to day operations. Perhaps that was something he tried to clean up a bit by bringing in Billy Hamilton, but that didn't work if he thought his baserunning skills could translate to the remainder of the team. So, the general play in 2020 is a net negative on his record.
One last point. If he knew more about Cano's steroid use than he publicized at the time of the trade, that is inexcusable.
Remember 1969, the video of Matt Allan’s interview in yesterday early AM post by John showed me 3 things:
ReplyDelete1) he looks like he came out of central casting
2) he has none of the flamboyance of Harvey, and is trying to emulate Jake
3) he is an absolute keeper. Brodie deserves an A+ for picking Matt.
Just a quick response to John's comment above (I promise to keep this shorter)
ReplyDeleteThere are two or three other angles to the Seattle trade that I also consider:
(1) At the time the trade was made, McNeil looked good, but he had all of 248 major league plate appearances under his belt. He also had not shown any inclination of any power. Mike Vail at the time might have been a decent comparison - a good half year flash.
He was also a 12th round draft pick 5 and a half years prior, so he was not a can't miss prospect. While it was believed second base was his best position, it was his hit tool that had him in the majors.
(2) The other player on the keystone was Rosario, an up and coming shortstop. It was known that Rosario learned and grew a lot with Jose Reyes being around. Robinson Cano was a long time professional that could help groom Amed and help him reach his ceiling.
(3) The bullpen was barren after 2018 - they had traded Familia; they had no closer .. why not get the best one out there with a lot of team control?
(4) So many people have complained that the Mets don't act like a large market team. That trade was a large market move. Perhaps things would change.
Lastly, I do not view a potential Lindor trade being similar. I would view an Arenado trade as a similar trade because of the $200M still owed, but Lindor will not tie up long term money and he is still entering his prime - 27, not 37. I saw a Jim Duquette proposal this morning that makes a lot of sense - Nimmo or Davis (Davis being my choice), Rosario or Gimenez (Rosario being my choice) and Szapucki or Wolf (either or) for Lindor. If I can get Mr. Smile for Davis, Rosario and Wolf, bring him on for a year and see if I can extend him. He would be a great New Yorker.
Lindor "will not tie up long term money"? Seriously?
DeleteWithout an agreement on his part to extend for 4+ years, there's no deal. Zero. Nada. Zilch.
No way will Sandy trade good talent for a rental.
Yes Tom, my Matt Allan comparison to Matt Harvey was to his talent, not his persona. I think he will be a good one, barring injury. I have heard good things about both Josh Wolf and J.T. Ginn as well. All still young, but hopeful.
ReplyDeleteRemember 1969, hopefully those 3 are eventually the team's next SP 1 - SP 3,
ReplyDeleteGiving up on Szapucki and Peterson already, Tom? 😁
DeleteI know he traded a bunch of players, but which of the prospects Brodie traded, besides Kelenic, has a good shot of being a star?
ReplyDeleteIf he didn't have to include the 2 salary dumps and ask Seattle to pick up some of Cano's contract (assuming that was direction from the Wilpons), could he have pulled off the trade without giving up Kelenic?
Bill, I get your point about extending him, but again, this guy is a 27 year old superstar in his prime, not a 37 year old with $80M already on the books. I would gladly 'tie up' big money for the next six years for Lindor. Let's play like a big market team now.
ReplyDeleteAs for Szapucki and Peterson, 2021 will be really key for both of them. Neither has a ton of innings at any level yet. I have big hopes for each of them, but for some reason, I don't look at either as a top of the rotation guy. I could be wrong (and hope i am), but I see a #3 ceiling for each, although I really have nothing to back that up with.
Erik - SWR has a pretty good shot at being a star I think. He is ranked in the top 100 and people really like his stuff.
ReplyDeleteI think its hard to really grade BVW because we don't know how much the Wilpons meddled and what he had to work with. I think he got the job because he pitched some risky win now scenarios that landed him the job instead of longer rebuilds and I'm sure his budget was constrained in many ways. Who knows how we would have done under Cohen.
I think a few things jumped out at me that didnt look good. It seemed like he strongly favored his own past clients or CAA clients. Whether that was a bias because of familiarity or some other reason it didnt look all that great.
As for the Cano trade I think the Mets were in the position of power. The Mariners desperately wanted to unload that Cano contract and Cano had veto power and the places you could ship him were so limited. I think the Mets overpaid unquestionably with the desperation the Mariners had to cut the budget. It just didn't look like he was the shrewd negotiator that was advertised or he had blinders on. I think the Mariners probably sensed his desperation to acquire Diaz.
Everyone is singing JD Davis accolades and he has some value but the guy still has a 0.2 cumulative WAR to his name. It was a win for Brodie but how big of a win is still not known. He needs to improve his defense or we need to get value from him by moving him.