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11/4/20

Reese Kaplan -- What's Going Right for the Mets



One of the first things managers do when placed in charge of a new account or company is to take an assessment of what's working, what isn't and what needs to be addressed first.  Steve Cohen and his team are in the process of doing this evaluation right now as the vote passed and the formal process of passing ownership from the Wilpons to Cohen will happen within a week.  Anyone who follows the Mets during the nightmarish Wilpon era can recite offhand the very many issues of things needing improvement, but first let's concentrate on the positive.



On the subject of offense, the Mets for once in their club history seem pretty competent when it's there turn to wield the wood.  Their batting average was among the best in the league and they have sufficient power from a great many people on the roster.  I don't put a lot of stock into what was accomplished during this bizarre exercise in baseball exceptionalism during 2020, but there are quite a few things that are very much legitimate.  

 



At first base, whether it's 2019's Rookie of the Year and Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso or 2020's slugging sometimes first baseman, sometimes left fielder and sometimes DH Dominic Smith, the Mets have an embarrassment of riches which needs to be decided.  The early rumblings are that the DH won't be implemented league-wide until the current CBA expires at the end of the 2021 season, so you have to decide who's on first, who's in left field and who collects splinters on the bench.  Throw in J.D. Davis and Robinson Cano as additional long shot first base candidates as well.

 

At second base, no one would have taken the bet that Robinson Cano would become the type of player he was for the Yankees and the Mariners.  After all, his 2019 was a mix of injury and poor performance.  Everyone was lambasting Brodie Van Wagenen for this ill-advised trade (Edwin Diaz' awful 2019 as part of that picture as well).  Consequently, a 2020 during which he hit .316 with 10 HRs and 30 RBIs in just under 1/3 of a season of effort would have been bypassed by anyone who embraces wagers as a way of profiting from competency.  



 

At shortstop there was a strangeness in which the increasingly solid Amed Rosario lost his job to surprising rookie Andres Gimenez.  In an ideal world they would merge these two players together to get Rosario's power, both have awesome speed, and Gimenez's defensive prowess.  Unfortunately that move is beyond current biomedical technology, so the club needs to make a decision going forward who is going to captain that slot on the infield (with Ronny Mauricio coming up the ranks in the minors as well).  

 

For now the position of third base is a black hole for the Mets (how familiar is that?). Going forward Todd Frazier has been handed his walking papers, so it would appear to be a toss up between Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and the loser at the shortstop battle.  David Wright types don't grow on trees, so until Brett Baty is ready, pick from one of the above unless reinforcements are coming from the outside.

 

The outfield is a bit of a black hole as well with very poor defense in two of the three positions, but Michael Conforto put on quite a show with his bat, his glove and his arm.  Many folks are after Cohen to make extending his contract a top priority before he hits free agency.  Brandon Nimmo was flat awful in center field and whomever they trotted out in left field wasn't much better.  It's an area in need of vast improvement.  

 



Edwin Diaz was a bust out hero for the Mets this past season after his first unimpressive week on the field.  He was fanning people with abandon and finished with a pretty awesome stat line.  He and Cano are making BVW look a bit better.

 

Jacob deGrom was his usual top notch self and the club got surprisingly credible pitching from David Peterson.  That's where the starting pitching starts and ends.  Many folks feel addressing the pitching is priority number one (even higher than extending Conforto's deal).  

 

So what you see is a solid core to begin to build a competitive team.  There are many needs to address and later this week we'll take a look at where the most attention is needed.  

4 comments:

  1. Fortunately, this team has a great core of above average players. Cohen needs to add several quality players to make this team vault past Atlanta as the 2021 Division favorites. Nothing less should be acceptable.

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  2. Look I remember 40 years ago when Wilpon/Doubleday bought the club from the totally inept DeRoulet sisters. Now that was a real disaster where as were in a much better place now and I don't see how were not contending from day one with our own Met fan Stevie running the show. I don't know if I could have imagined a better scenario for this team if I dreamed it up myself so I'm going to totally enjoy the honeymoon period because we've all waited along time for this day.

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  3. All of this talk is fine, but COVID still casts a large shadow over the 2021 season. We can't pretend it's not real.

    Maybe at some point teams will allow partial attendance, but right now we're going to see a lot of folks dying and basically an unchanged situation.

    How smart is it to spend significantly on free agents for 2021?

    I think -- and obviously, we're all just guessing here -- Cohen will have to make some moves. But he'd be foolish to dump a ton of money into an uncertain 2021 season. I mean, sure, I wouldn't complain, but if I were him, I'd be concerned about what 2021 is going to look like.

    I don't understand why the DH would be in place last season but not next season. Have the circumstances changed? We're all good now?

    Much stronger free agent class next winter.

    Sign Springer. Cobble together something at catcher. Figure out a pitching staff without necessarily going "big" on anyone.

    Lot of ways to address the bullpen.

    We do need to be careful about basing any decisions on the strange season we just experienced. There's a lot of questions for me that remain unanswered:

    1) Is Pete Alonso a good player? I'm not sure. Last season, he was not. In 2019, he was. And the glove is terrible on a team that has a significant problem with defense.

    2) Can JD Davis rebound offensively and hold down the fort at 3B? In other words, can he hit enough to compensate for his below-average defense?

    3) Is Dominic Smith for real? I'm becoming a believer, but I'd like to see him repeat his success. He's not a LF.

    For the starting 8, I don't know that there's a lot the Mets should do -- outside of adding Springer and a catcher.

    I don't think I'd want to pay Bauer $30 million for the 2021 season. I do worry about his extreme outspokenness and somewhat unproven track record over the long haul. We'll see what Strohman does.

    Cohen needs to address so much with the team's broken infrastructure. It makes sense to sink money into foundational work -- analytics, scouting, international, upper management, technology -- whereas I'd try to move forward on the field in 2021 without going crazy. Which means, to me, pretty much signing Springer and then doing what Sandy would normally do with a decent budget, work the margins, seek value, attempt to build depth, and bring in at least one proven late-inning reliever (Hand, for example).

    Jimmy







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  4. Just to add a "for example" to the above:

    Kris Bryant is an interesting guy. Career numbers are great, struggled in only 131 ABs last season, earning a big salary. He'd be an interesting acquisition/upgrade -- and, yeah, about $18 million more than JD Davis.

    Is this the year I make that move (if, even, my evaluators are sold on it).

    Or do you just kick this particular can down the road for another season?

    Jimmy

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