Jud Fabian
OF 6-2 195 Florida
The elephant in the room here for the Mariners is the dearth of outfield prospects the team currently has stewing in the minors. Guys like Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis all likely have a part in the team’s future at the position. That being said, you always take the best player on the board. Always. There’s a pretty good likelihood Fabian is a Top 10 pick in 2021, if not Top 5.
Acquiring a player with five 55-grade tools is extremely rare. Fabian has the potential, by definition, of being a 5-tool player. I think he’s got an outside shot at becoming a star, but more than likely whoever acquires him is getting a guy who’s a pretty good bet of reaching his ‘big league regular’ floor with a chance of going to a handful of all-star games.
Jud Fabian, OF, University of Florida
A righty hitter and lefty thrower, Fabian was a notable prep prospect who enrolled early with the Gators back in 2018 to get his college career underway early. Though without any individual standout tool, Fabian shows big-league level ability across his athletic profile, with the potential for five tools in the 50-55 range on the 20-80 scouting scale. This type of well-rounded profile is similar to that of some other recent top-5 selections from the SEC- Nick Senzel, Dansby Swanson and fellow gator Jonathan India. While each of those players were primarily infielders in the college game, their athletic profiles all line up pretty favorably with Fabian’s, who has speed and power that fall somewhere between solid average and above average to go with very advanced hitting ability.
From a performance standpoint, Fabian still has a bit more to prove, but had some serious momentum halted by the COVID-19 pandemic shutting down the 2020 NCAA baseball season. After a so-so freshman year in which he hit .232/.353/.411 in 56 games, Fabian really put himself on the map with his 2019 Cape Cod League performance, where he ranked as one of the league’s best hitters while participating as one of the youngest. In 35 CCBL contests, Fabian accumulated 137 PAs and a .290/.350/.500 slash line, racking up 6 homers in the process. In 2020’s brief NCAA action, he was building on that success with a .294/.407/.603 line in the Gators’ early schedule before things shut down for good, at which point most evaluators’ questions about him had been answered.
As it stands now, Fabian is seen universally as a top half of the first round talent, with some ranking him as highly as the top 5 and a dark horse 1.1 candidate. Fabian’s profile is incredibly balanced and difficult to nitpick, but if there are any concerns to monitor here they are of the contact variety, as he has tended to strike out a bit more than average in the college game. Fabian’s swing is one of the prettier righty cuts you’ll see at the college level, though, and it comes packaged with premium bat speed and a solid approach. Keeping all that in mind, most are confident that Fabian will make more than enough contact for the tools to play, even if he’s not an elite hitter for average. The icing on the cake for the profile is that his speed, which rates as roughly above average, plays up in the outfield thanks to his instincts and clean actions. As a result, most evaluators come away with positive impressions of his play in center field and give him a strong chance to stick there.
Barring an offensive implosion (which feels exceedingly unlikely because of his upward trajectory to date), Fabian should go in the top 10 selections and is the odds-on favorite to be the first college bat off the board next June.
3. OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL
2019-2020: 12 HR, .250/.368/.466, 9 SB, 63/41 K/BB in 73 games.
While Jack Leiter is extremely old for his class, Jud Fabian enrolled early at Florida in 2019 and finds himself as one of the youngest juniors in his class, more than five months younger than the sophomore Leiter. He won’t turn 21 until well after the draft, and he’ll have multiple years of SEC play under his belt by then. Despite his age, he held his own as an 18 year old freshman in 2019, slashing .232/.353/.411 with seven home runs over 56 games against a tough SEC schedule. Fabian was off to an even hotter start against Florida’s non-conference slate in 2020, slashing .294/.407/.603 with five home runs in 17 games, including one off of the Diamondbacks’ 32nd overall pick, Slade Cecconi. Combine that with a pair of strong summers on the Cape in 2019 and in the Florida League in 2020, and Fabian has more amateur track record than any teenager in the country.
With Fabian, we’re not talking about any one loud tool. As you would expect given all the hitting he’s done as a teenager, his natural feel for the game is what stands out the most and it helps his tools, which are all at least average across the board, play up. The Ocala native has a very disciplined approach at the plate, recognizing balls from strikes and improving in his ability to recognize offspeed pitches as well. However, he does need to improve his raw bat to ball skills, because even if his pitch selection is advanced, he tends to swing and miss within the strike zone a bit more than you’d expect. At a listed 6’2″ and 195 pounds, he has a nice balance of power and athleticism in his frame, and at this point he regularly flashes above average raw and game power from a loose, balanced swing. As he continues to refine his hit tool (which I am separating from his “eye tool”), there is a chance he ends up with plus power down the road if everything breaks right.
An above average runner, Fabian’s feel for the game translates to his defense as well and he profiles to stick in center field long term, which in turn makes his offensive profile look even better. Given his youth, it’s not hard to dream on him continuing to improve at the plate and tapping into his true five tool potential, in which case he could project for 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his ceiling. Profiling easily within the top ten picks and getting plenty of looks within the top five picks at this point, teams will want to see big production against SEC pitching in 2021, which could solidify him as the top position player prospect in college baseball. Fabian’s current competitors in that regard are Miami’s Adrian Del Castillo, UCLA’s Matt McLain, and Louisville’s Alex Binelas.
4. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Baseball loves youth, and that even applies to the draft. Fabian skipped his senior year of high school and a shot at being a first-round pick to enroll at Florida in February of 2019, starting 54 games as a freshman and batting .232 with seven home runs and a team-leading 28 walks.
He then really opened eyes in Bourne that summer, hitting .290 with six homers and becoming the youngest All-Star in Cape League history at only 18. Already a prime draft prospect, that performance made him a potential top-five pick.
Fabian boasts solid tools across the board, with his high walk rate suggesting an advanced understanding of the zone that should translate to higher averages as he matures. Still only 19 years old, he oozes potential.
At only 5-10, 170, McLain isn't physically imposing, but he's developing more power than expected, and he's considered athletic enough to remain at a position up the middle, whether it's shortstop or center field. Like Fabian, he has five-tool potential.
2. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Fabian graduated a semester early from high school so he could join the Gators in the spring of 2019, and he has acquitted himself well with wood bats in the Cape Cod and Florida Collegiate leagues the last two summers. A rare bats-right/throws-left guy, Fabian's bat speed and strength produce power to all fields, and he draws a healthy amount of walks, though he has some swing-and-miss issues at times. He's a solid-to-plus runner who should be able to stick in center field.
2) Jud Fabian, OF, Florida - After graduating from high school early and enrolling at Florida a semester early, Fabian held his own as a 17/18-year-old in the SEC before bursting out in the 2019 Cape Cod League. He then proceeded to put up a .294/.407/.603 slash line in 2020 before the shutdown. Clearly, Fabian has an advanced offensive profile. He has a loose, athletic swing with a barrel that whips through the zone. He generates great natural loft in his swing and he has no trouble lifting the ball to produce line drives and fly balls. His ability to produce high exit velocities and get the ball in the air so well makes it easy to project a guy who hits 22-27 homers a season. Fabian does so many things well, but to me the part of his game that stands out the most is his approach. As one of the youngest players in the most difficult conference in America, Fabian put up a .353 on-base percent with a 13.5% walk rate as a freshman in 2019. He takes great at-bats and lays off tough pitches with ease. Defensively, Fabian plays center field for the Gators but he probably fits best at a corner outfield spot in the future. He is an above-average runner right now, but as he grows bigger he will lose a step and won’t be able to cover as much ground. His jumps and reads off the bat in the outfield also look shaky at times. Overall, Fabian’s offensive projection is more than enough to make up for a move to a corner outfield spot, and he has the potential to become an annual 3-win player and all-star candidate.
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Florida's pitching staff will receive plenty of buzz with Mace and Leftwich returning, but Fabian could be the best prospect on the roster.
The outfielder was on pace for an incredible sophomore campaign before it was cancelled.
In 17 games, Fabian hit five home runs, two off his freshman year total, drove in 13 runs and recorded a 1.010 OPS.
Since Florida is expected to be the preseason No. 1 team and has two terrific arms, a good chunk of scouts should be present at most games.
That combined with the high level of competition in the SEC should benefit Fabian's draft stock.
If he puts up large totals, the right-handed hitting, left-handed throwing outfielder could be the first collegiate position player off the board.
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
If the Tigers are content on continuing their position player streak, Jud Fabian might be top on their wishlist. Recently mocked to the Tigers on the Prospects Live mock draft, Fabian has the SEC resume that the Tigers have often looked for with their draft selections in years’ past. Over 17 games, Fabian finished 2020 with a .294 average with 5 home runs while walking an impressive 13 times.
He plays centerfield currently and might be able to stick, but most have him ending up at a corner spot with above-average running ability.
11. Jud Fabian, OF, University of Florida
The coming season will decide if Jud Fabian is a top-10 pick or a compensation pick/2nd rounder. Currently, Fabian is seen as a prospect without a weakness but also without a strength. He’s so well-rounded that if he doesn’t break out in 2021, he could slip as others who have louder tools get picked in front of him. That said, Fabian looked like he took his power tool a step forward a year ago, starting with a strong Cape Cod League showing (.290/.500/.850, six HRs in 35 games). He then showed it wasn’t a fluke, bettering those numbers pre-COVID, by belting five homers in just 17 games.
CF Jud Fabian - Florida
Fabian is #10 on the early Fangraphs 2021 prospect list. A bonus is that his younger brother, Deric Fabian, a high school player committed to Florida, is ranked at #48, so a team with a high first round pick and a high second round pick could theoretically draft both Fabian brothers. That would be cool, as long as they both became Orioles. Otherwise the story isn’t worth quite so much.
His scouting capsule from McDaniel at ESPN is not the most exciting of this bunch:
For some, he was a well-rounded tweener, but he broke out of that profile with a loud Cape performance last summer, though there’s arguably no single plus tool in his arsenal.
The 2020 season did not offer Fabian much of an opportunity to show whether he has any above-average baseball tools, either in SEC action or if he did another round of summer ball in the Cape Cod League. SEC conference play barely got started and the Cape is canceled.
If Jud Fabian is the best player available when the Mets draft in the 1st round, seems they should consider him.
ReplyDeleteBut they really do need pitching.
I wonder how a guy like Alex Ramirez compares to him.
I believe Fabian has more potential than Ramirez.
ReplyDeleteBut he will be long gone before we pick at 1.10.