New ownership, new team ceiling.
We have gotten out of the Wilpon basement.
Where will the Cohen 2021 Mets penthouse be?
Looking at Spotrac, and assuming their team salaries for luxury tax purposes are listed reasonably accurately. it seems the Mets and their key competitors for 2020-21 offseason talent are as follows (rounded to the nearest million):
BELOW LUXURY TAX BY:
Mets - $48 million under the cap (after Stroman is reflected as having accepted his $18.9 million, one year qualifying offer)
Yankees - $1 million under
Dodgers - $20 million
Red Sox - $33 million
Cubs - $34 million
Braves - $90 million
(Pittsburgh, as I am sure you were wondering, is furthest below the cap, at $137 million, but no one expects them to be big spenders this off season).
Before I proceed here, I did not vet Spotrac's numbers. Perhaps they are inaccurate. The Post's Joel Sherman's quote, as reflected in JOHN FROM ALBANY'S post on Macks Mets this morning, said this instead:
“We may see a converging point this offseason in which the Mets’ payroll actually exceeds that of the Yankees for the first time in nearly three decades. With Stroman back, the Mets project to roughly a $155 million payroll for luxury-tax purposes next season. The Yanks are currently at $175 million.”
The good news there is that if Sherman is correct, the Mets are even further under the cap than the $48 million I extracted from Spotrac. Perhaps $55 million or more.
Given Mr. Cohen's far greater willingness to spend, as compared to owners who sustained huge losses in 2020 (or the former owners, for that matter), I would expect him to go big for 2021. I outline a "build a team of stars approach" below.
So who would you sign as free agents, if YOU were the onwer/GM, or trade for, or trade away to get you to the superior team you can assemble?
What would you do? Please comment.
Me? Some initial quick thoughts as to possibilities:
I'd get Cy Bauer, and I'd get Yogi Realmuto, and I'd get Springer the Swinger (pictured above).
There goes the "$48 million under the cap": status. Poof!
But that's OK - let's continue...
I'd also try to get Nolan Arenado - it's about time we had another Nolan in this organization, I say. Colorado assuredly wants long term salary relief, so why not trade him for Robbie Cano? Cano still has a no-trade clause restriction, I believe, but his path to the Hall of Fame would (I think) be aided by playing at ultra-hitter-friendly Colorado. PAD THOSE STATS!
Colorado in such a case may want a prospect 3B too. If so, I'd not give up Bret Baty, who would be my eventual Arenado successor, but would give up Marky Mark Vientos.
I'd also get Francisco Lindor. How> Perhaps trade (ouch!) Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario for him. Lindor probably will win his 3rd straight Gold Glove, after making just 1 error at SS in 58 games in 2020. But only if I could extend Lindor upon acquisition. Another cap stressor, but Cohen does have the money to go BIG...BIG...BIG.
All of that would leave the Mets with roughly the following:
STARTERS: deGrom, Bauer, Stroman, David Peterson, Syndergaard (mid-season). A pretty killer start here.
BULLPEN: Diaz, Lugo, Familia, Betances, Castro, Shreve as the main guys. Matz as a swing man, or trade him and his estimated $5.2 million and get an alternate starter. Perhaps release Rob Gsellman. Bullpen would need more. Maybe someone comes here on a discount to join the party.
INFIELD: Realmuto, Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Arenado, with back ups Gimenez, Guillorme. Killer stuff. Lethal.
OUTFIELD: Conforto, Springer, Nimmo, and Davis as a IF/OF swing man. Great offensive, and balanced, OF.
That will cost a ton - no doubt result in some luxury tax - but the Mets would almost surely be a huge winning team in 2021. And, hopefully, they keep their prospects who they best estimate will be above average major leaguers so that before they get too far into luxury tax permanent hell, they have some very cheap, talented promotions.
100 wins? With that talent? Yes, with the right supporting cast for the remaining fellows on the 26 man.
That's my off-the-cuff thoughts.
So, c'mon, man, what would you do?
.
You killed it Tom good job. I'll send you mine this weekend. I love that we all can think in these terms with no holding back. Christmas has come early.
ReplyDeleteGary, so true. And I did an off-topic fantasy article for Monday at 9:30, which I think you will find interesting.
ReplyDeleteIn it, though, I note the following:
Juan Soto at age 21 had a .490 on base %. Which tells me that there is a guy in our division who (based on his early dazzling career results) has a chance to be the best player of all time. You want to win? You've got to be better than your opponents. Period. Or you don't win. Think Yankkes/Red Sox. The Yankees understood that, and acquired accoerdingly.
After 3 Mets playoff appearances in 18 years, one of which lasted just one game, so it hardly counted, I want to fully embrace a drastic change from the Wilpon approach to a killing winner approach.
Was this supposed to be a dream article ? Because I believe you know sandy would never do all this.... he couldn’t live with himself
ReplyDeleteThe pitching would lose more games than the hitting would win. You have no Syndergaard until over the halfway point of the season and you're banking on both Lugo (sucks as a starter) and Peterson (still unproven) as part of the rotation. Right now it would be deGrom, Stroman, Bauer and a lot of hope. The bullpen hasn't changed at all. That's not good.
ReplyDeleteReese, one scenario is to then sign or trade for a few starters better than Wacha for 2021.
ReplyDeleteIf they decide to extend Syndergaard early, could he be back by June 1? That would be 14 months and a week.
Tom,
ReplyDeleteBased on the statements and body language from Cohen and Alderson, I expect one big spend acquisition from this pool - Springer, Bauer, Realmuto, and Lindor. The gourmet aisle generally requires longer term commitments, even in a crazy COVID offseason. Projecting Syndergaard's return is difficult, it could range from May to Juy barring setbacks and will be based on performance. I do expect multiple other additions at good prices. From the sound of it, the luxury tax cutoff is much less a concern than bogging down future seasons with big payroll commitments. I agree with that approach. I don't trust Bauer on a long term, he just hasn't had enough top seasons to merit it, even ignoring his personality. There will also be the future business of Contorto, Syndergaard, perhaps Stroman, etc, so even with Daddy Warbucks they need to spend wiselt this winter. The good news is that this market is totally in their favor, so they shoud be able to have thier pick, for once.
Eddie, yes, it was a dream article. You dream as big as you can, and then adjust to the reality of the bargains that could be available in this market this off season from cash-starved owners.
ReplyDeleteBut remember - the Yanks and Dodgers have blasted thru the cap many times. I think the Yanks have paid hundreds of millions in luxury tax over the years. Cohen may not be afraid of a luxury tax as long as it is managed well - which means careful projections into the future.
Look at the Lakers, who they got - I don't follow caps for the NBA, but I am sure Lebron and Anthony Davis did not come cheap. Steve Cohen may figure he is not going to wait, exceed the cap (perhaps substantially) and hope to grow farm talent to offload or not re-sign high priced talent.
For example, Matt Allan may have missed a year - but he got to pitch against guys in the 60 man pool, far tougher than the usual dudes he'd face. It may have accelerated him. He may need just one year now in the higher minors to be ready to step into the rotation in 2022. 2021 will be fascinating to watch him.
JT Ginn? He could roar thru the minors in 2021, and perhaps be ready in 2022. Unlikely - but it took a neophyte pitcher in deGrom a little over 2 full minors seasons to get to the show, so JT Ginn could be ready OD 2023 if he is really that good.
Nimmo? WHen he starts getting expensive, will Armstrong or Greene be ready to step in and replace Brandon before he goes free agent in 2023?
Lots to weigh for the new team. But to me, Plan A would be: can we load up this team with stars?
TP, great points. We will see how it all unfolds. There is that risk of over-acquiring long term talent and getting stuck (think Chris Davis). If they do sign Bauer, I would try to do it short term, big $$ each year for 3 years, and a team option for more.
ReplyDeleteThe Wilpons always worried about cash flow and so did contracts that got bigger as guys got older (and most likely in decline). Maybe Cohen will try to better match acquisitions' pay by year to what they might be most likely to achieve, based on age, in each year. If I were Bauer and knew I could sign for $35 and $35 the first 2 seasons, and $30 in the third season and then be subject to a generous team option, I'd consider that strongly. The Wilpons would have wanted a 5 year deal starting at $20 and ending at $40, making the guy untradable.
Tom, any plan that tries to address every Mets weakness in a year is the wrong plan. First off, there will be a bunch of good ML players looking for jobs due to the Covid-19 effect on the finances of the teams.
ReplyDeleteKnowing that, the Mets should play it smart and as I have said before, look to put the best team together but not in just one year. If you do that, you will risk going over the cap and pay dearly for years to come.
With Stroman coming back, that makes the pitching a lot better. By all means, find out what Bauer wants but don't break the bank for him.
Priorities should be at this point McCaan and Springer. Once that is done, you have Nimmo, JD Davis or both as trade bait for additional pitching. Maybe even Rosario in the right deal.
You have to give Pete and Smith another year with the Mets. This way the Mets can find out if Pete was a one year wonder and if Smith is really this good and then choose the best one going forward unless the DH becomes part of the NL in which case you can keep both if needed.
Everyone is going GA-GA over Lindor and yes, he is a great player but you cannot, CANNOT trade ML ready or your best prospects for one year of Lindor.
The Mets need to build the minor leagues in order to be able to tap on it in the future and be competitive every year. That's what the Braves, Indians, Tampa Bay and other teams do.
Again, 2021 will be a very hard year for MLB. The Mets need to have patience as opportunities will present themselves.
Viper, I think what you are saying is the way it will go.
ReplyDeleteGetting all the stars in one year would be exciting and nice, in theory. But Steve Cohen understands buying shrewdly at impaired market prices, and likely has told Sandy to look specifically for strong talent at a discount.
Every year has its opportunities, and I am sure they will be playing the game of "if we overspend this year, who will we be poorly positioned to pursue down the road." In the future, they may well want to pursue a generational super talent like Juan Soto, for example. If they have already done their "Giancarlo" equivalent super contracts, that could be tough indeed.
That said, I would be targeting 100 wins IN 2021 as a goal, most likely using your suggested approach. I would not settle for a team that lacked the potential to win 100 games. If not everything works out in 2021 as planned, it should be an absolute minimum 90 win worst case scenario.
With the Wilpons, that was always the best case scenario.
I totally agree with Viper.
ReplyDeleteSorry, Tom,but this is a silly article. Let's get everybody now!!! We'll trade Cano for Arenado!
Anyway, it's going to be fascinating to watch it all develop. I don't think the idea is to turn your wallet upside down and shake it.
Right now the world is exploding with Covid. Numbers going crazy, lockdowns in Europe, etc. Only an idiot would lavishly overspend now, on these guys.
Sidenote: I am curious to see when we'll be reading those first blog posts complaining about all the Wall Street Dopes in the stands, wondering where all the "real fans" have gone, nostalgic for the easy tickets of the Wilpon years.
Jimmy
Guys we have to readjust our thinking from the Wilpon years. Steve Cohan is worth 14 BILLION DOLLARS AND WANTS A WINNER and said he didn't buy the Mets to make money that's what Point 72 is for. Again 14 BILLION DOLLARS so $250 million dollar payroll is chump change and if you want to win in this window with Jake go big or go home.
ReplyDeleteJimmy, it will be fascinating to watch indeed.
ReplyDeleteI threw this out there as just one possibility. Intriguing but expensive.
Of course, they will have to see how the off season market unfolds. But I expect boldness.
If the vaccine is really as effective as so far indicated, by around April 1, it should be getting (and to a good degree already) heavily distributed. Tens of millions would be vaccinated by then. Herd immunity would then come very rapidly. If I were baseball, I would plan to start 2020 around May 1, subject to change, but my guess is the latest would be Memorial Day weekend. It could be dramatically safer by May 1, and quickly and increasingly so each month. Pushing a late March opening day seems overly optimistic. I would think next season will be 120-140 games.
Gary, I agree. He will take baseball by storm.
ReplyDeleteI think the quotes below are what really excites me. Cohen and Alderson seem to get it. They aren't going to trade productive controlled players for a year of Lindor and likely not even for an extension of Lindor and certainly not for Arenado (without Colorada eating a lot of $$$). Its just not productive enough to warrant it until they are closer to being a champion caliber team (see below). They almost certainly will sign one of Bauer, Springer, Realmunto...but they aren't going to go whole hog and tie us up for the next 5 years either. They need money to fill holes beyond 2021. Syndergaard/Conforto/Stroman are free agents. I think they will likely see what else is available at C, CF, SP from teams non-tenders or trying to offload $$ and then fill the biggest weakness from the top free agents. I simply don't expect them to take on a plethora of Cano like contracts from other teams or through free agency (guys getting paid huge $$ through their mid 30's).
ReplyDelete"This also was a smart comment from Cohen about spending money wisely: “You know,’’ he began, the two words most New Yorkers start with to make a point, “you can spend a lot of money today and then tie up your team in bad contracts for the next five years. That’s part of building a sustainable franchise. You want to make decisions not what works for the next 60 games but works for the next few years. We want to be thoughtful about it … We’re starting to see players maybe being off-loaded because of financial concerns and I think Sandy and I want to take advantage of that."
“Listen, I’m not going to question what happened in the past,’’ Cohen began. “They made their decision and I’m sure it was well informed. Generally, our belief is we want to hold onto our farm system and only use them when we are close, if we need to use them as chips to trade for a player, we do it when we are really close to winning a championship.
“In my own hedge fund, the key to my firm is we develop talent all the time. If I didn’t do that and depended on just going out in the world and hiring people on the outside, I’d be out of business. So, I really feel it is important that we draft well, and develop our players and hold on to them.’’
Dallas - great points.
ReplyDeleteCohen truly gets it. He wants Mets greatness, but will go after it carefully, in a fiscally sound way.
Just him saying all that will temper free agents and other owners trying to deal with the Mets.
This team has a dozen of so well above average talents. Great start. Also many holes. As my current series for the last 5 seasons outlines, I think the biggest killer has been back too much half of the club crap. He has to avoid that above all else. If the weaker half of the Mets' pitching staff allowed a lousy 5.4 runs per 9 innings, rather than its horrific 7.4 runs per 9 inning performance, several more games would have been won, for instance.
It takes 26, and decent talent ready to call up, too.
I'd sign Realmuto, Springer and LeMahieu (for 3rd base). Then I'd sign Bauer and two top relievers. I would stay with Gimenez for 2021 and consider a FA shortstop after the 2021 season. The reason for doing so is that I'd want to trade, if possible, for Darvish. The guys I would make available are Matz, Rosario, Williams, and Vientos. I'd try to trade Cano, but would have to swallow a bunch of his salary. That would give us a tremendous righty/lefty alternating lineup and terrific pitching staff. I would keep the contracts to 3-4 years in some cases (with higher annual salaries) in order to leave room for the Mets top prospects Mauricio (SS), Alvarez (C), Baty (3B), Crow-Armstrong (CF), as well as pitchers Allen, Ginn, Wolf and Szapucki. That would be consistent with Cohen's desire to win now, but to retain minor league assets to replenish the ML team as age takes its toll. Would all this put us into luxury tax zone? Sure, but if you want to win a WS in 3-5 years "if not sooner" then why not?
ReplyDeleteSeamus, sounds like a strong plan, but I haven't had my morning coffee yet, who is Williams?
ReplyDelete