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12/12/20

Reese Kaplan -- The Four Horsemen for Mets GM Role

As the holidays of December arrive or soon will arrive, the Mets have been looking for someone in shiny wrapping and a giant bow to join their front office alongside Sandy Alderson and others in the newly minted management and operations team to help run the business of Queens baseball.  The Winter Meetings have come and gone with the Mets only really active in the Rule V major and minor league portions but nothing being done to address the various holes on the New York roster.  One wonders had they had a GM in place already if more might have been done?


Reporter Jon Heyman of the MLB Network is standing by his assertion that there are four named challengers for the opening and that the decision could come as soon as the middle of next week.  This better-late-than-never approach is certainly welcome as it seems as if the Mets are to some extent spinning their wheels while other clubs have already secured quality players in free agency and in trades.  




The four names on the list provided suggest both familiarity and novelty.  Everyone is well aware of the Mets showing interest in Billy Owens of the Oakland Athletics where Sandy was working after leaving the Mets the first time.  Owens has been there for two of the past three years in which his team of mostly unknown ballplayers has reached the postseason, something the Mets can’t demonstrate since an ill-fated attempt in 2016 when they got knocked out immediately in the first round.  Success is something, as is familiarity and we are well aware that Alderson is not fond of anything or anyone new.




The Boston Red Sox have an assistant GM by the name of Zack Scott.  He has been involved in Beantown pursuit of October glory.  The fact is that after 17 years in the Boston organization Scott has been there for a few World Series championships and postseason playoff berths.  If we write off the 2020 experimental season, he’s been much more good than bad.  He also has a wealth of experience in analytics, baseball operations and serving as assistant GM.  His methods would likely be good but his familiarity with any other team (and one in another league entirely) might present something of a challenge.  




Jared Porter of the Arizona Diamondbacks was another new assistant GM name not bandied about much in the media leaks regarding the Mets’ GM search.  He’s done a little bit of everything with the D’Backs, Cubs and Red Sox during his 16 years in professional baseball management.  A step into a full GM role, like the previous three, would represent a step forward.  His background is heavier on scouting than analytics.  The Arizona team has not been to the postseason since he ascended into a heavy duty position there.  The Cubs were more successful, so he does have some positives on his resume as well.  




While any of these three candidates could be capable in the role for the Mets, remember what’s been said already about the long range plan.  The new GM is supposed to be in line to take over for Sandy Alderson when he chooses to retire from his position.  Towards that end Michael Hill is someone who has done the job Alderson now holds.  Furthermore, he did it during the tumultuous transition into the Derek Jeter era in Florida.  His club came from completely out of nowhere to finish in second place and earning a playoff berth this past season, so he has that recent success to show for his effort.  While taking a GM position might be regarded as something of a step down for the now-unemployed Hill, the growth from the marginally budgeted Marlins to the deep pocketed Mets is definitely moving up in his career.  


While I do not think there is a clear winner or loser in this bunch, to me it would seem that it is likely between Owens and Hill.  Owens has the Alderson connection and strong performance background.  Hill would be stepping onto the game’s biggest stage.  There is also something to be said about being the first person interviewed when the personnel games began.  Notice that the Phillies did not go after Hill for the position just filled by Dave Dombrowski.  His options might be somewhat limited and thus he might willingly swallow his pride a bit for the lesser position than he held with the Marlins in order to open the door to the possibility of much, much more in the future.  Whether or not he is the right choice is uncertain, but it’s good to hear the Mets are not merely sitting on their hands as it has seemed.


12 comments:

  1. Reese, a good breakdown on the four GM possibles. All seem better than BVW, and you are probably right that it is between Hill and owens.

    Hopefully, it will be nailed down this week. Time to solidify

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  2. I hate to overreact to a minor league deal, but the Blevins signing feels sooooo Sandy, working from a dusty Roledex. Seems so lazy to me.

    Blevins is 38, worked for SNY last year, and hasn't pitched under the three-batter minimum rule. But, okay, maybe it's a favor -- and Jerry is definitely a cool dude.

    What's next, the 4th signing of Omar Quintanilla?

    I had an idea which I think has some merit that I have not seen elsewhere.

    1) Take advantage of the soft market to sign relievers Hendricks and Hand at relative bargain contracts;

    2) Trade Diaz, possibly packaged with Rosario, so someone who can help 2021 team.

    Why trade Diaz? Well, we don't have to. But don't we all feel a little unsettled with him, a little nervous about which guy is going to show up next season? And also, his small contract makes him especially appealing on the trade market. Again, I don't flip Diaz unless Mets bring in at least two more prime-time relievers.

    Lastly: Really need more upper management in the room, because there's no way Sandy has the energy for that kind of deal. He hates to transact, risk averse to an extreme. MLB absolutely needs clarification of DH rule. If no DH, team is in a real pickle. Again, an active GM might address that problem by making a trade; Sandy would probably, according to his track record, just play a bunch of guys out of position.

    (Dominick Smith is a terrible left fielder, folks.)

    Lindor at SS and Gimenez at 2B and Springer in CF and McCann at C fortifies team up the middle in an amazing way. I'd be willing to live with JD at 3B -- can't be strong defensively everywhere, given our myriad holes -- pass on Bauer, the top-shelf starter, so long as pen was very strong. Just typing out loud. Lindor is the real question: I do not give up too much to acquire him. If they want salary relief, great.

    I'd hate to see Nimmo go, as I am a believer.

    Jimmy

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  3. The Phils have been widely praised for getting Dombrowski. Did the Mets try for him and get turned down, or were they just not interested in him?

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  4. Great summarization of the GM candidates, Reese.

    On Bill's question, I have not heard that Dombrowsi was wever a candidate for the Mets job, nor do I think he should have been. He is an old-school (pre-analytics era, really) who seems to be a master of the win now mode. Kind of a BVW with more experience. I do not want to see somebody coming in and ripping up the top of the farm system that we are just now building back but trading guys like Allan, Wolf, Ginn, etc. just to 'win now'. We need a visionary that will built the team for extended success. Dombrowski has not shown to be that kind of a GM.

    I think any of the others on the list above are better choices.

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    1. I don't know much about Dombrowski other than the praise the Phils are getting for his signing. If so many in the media and in MLB FOs feel that way, why not Sandy?

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  5. A couple of interesting comments from Jimmy. I really don't think they should be trading Diaz, but if they do, they had better be getting back a good starting pitcher under team control for at least 3 years.

    I guess I don't see the math - why spend $20M on the bullpen and trade the $6M guy who is one of the top strikeout guys that has had success (and yes, one poor year, but with a bounceback) when that $14M could be used to fill another hole. I guess with the absence of starting pitching on the FA ranks, IF a pitcher such as Plesac could be had, perhaps go for it.

    I like your defense of Lindor, Gimenez, McCann, and Springer. On my post the other day, the only tweak I made was sign Kolten Wong for second base and slide Gimenez over to a platoon situation with Davis and they have an extremely strong defensive team.

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  6. One last thing for today. Another option that I have not heard much - perhaps it has been thrown out a time or two, but doesn't have much traction.

    How much could a trade of Conforto get back? Perhaps he is the guy to trade with free agency pending. They could slide Jeff McNeil into the right field and go with one of the better fielding second basemen.

    I guess the issue I see is the lack of good starting pitching throughout the league. I am fairly convinced that Cleveland, and maybe Tampa and Atlanta are the only clubs that really have a good MLB ready staff top to bottom, so trades for these types of players (think Syndergaard in Dec 2012), will be extremely rare in today's market.

    I guess in a nutshell, trading Conforto has the same issue as trading Diaz - what can you get back that will help when that help really needs to be good controllable starting pitching.

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  7. Jimmy and Remember 1969 both make strong and impassioned pitches here.

    Sandy needs to deliver - period. Prove to us that he is not overly risk averse when he's got a flush budget. C'mon Sandy! Don't disappoint us.

    If there is no DH, I would only trade Smith if there is a huge return. The reader that pointed out that Alonso had a 0 WAR in 2020 pointed out something sobering indeed. By comparison, Mike Trout averaged 9 WAR over his 8 full seasons. And Freddie Freeman had 3.2 WAR in 2020. We need 6 WAR out of Pete in 2020. Because if Smith were at first base in 2020, he'd give us 6-8 WAR.

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  8. A Conforto trade should be considered if we got something huge back.

    While you're at it, Alonso for Arenado, with Colorado eating $100 million of Arenado's future contract? It would open up 1B to Smith, and put killer defense at 3B for years.

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  9. Ok, maybe one more. . I guess I have only three players on my 'do not trade' list for this offseason - deGrom, Gimenez, and Dom Smith.

    Smith is the best defensive first baseman on the team and he is also the best pinchhitter. I do not want to see him used much as a pinchhitter as I think he deserves regular on the field at-bats. What happens if Pete were to sprain his ankle and be down for three weeks or even something worse? Smith is a keeper, DH or no DH.

    Gimenez fits into my philosophy of not trading my top picks until they have 3 years in the system. I will qualify by saying "and after those three years, they don't show star or very solid MLB projectable qualities". What is the point of not trading a pick if you are just going to trade him when he finally gets to the show and displays as much promise as Gimenez did last year? The pieces that are floating a Gimenez for Sonny Gray trade are insane.

    BTW: Pete's 0 WAR in 2020 was deceiving. While his defense wasn't as good as Smith's, take a look at Pete's season from about August 22 through the end of the year. Compare his July-first 3 weeks of August 2020 to July 2019. He was terrible in July 2019, yet had the remainder of the season to cover it. In 2020, he only had the last month to cover his terrible start, and he did so quite respectably. I am not worried about him at all. I suspect he will be a hitter prone to hot and cold stretches for his entire career. It was unfortunate that his cold stretch was the start of the season which carries so much weight. He still led the team in home runs.

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  10. Just a crazy idea to throw out here--I'm not advocating for it, but I wonder if Alonso could be a halfway decent LFer of he had a full ST to learn it.

    Defensively, would we be better off with mediocrity (Dom) in LF and at 1B, or excellence at 1B and mediocrity in LF?

    Just wondering...

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  11. Bill . .interesting idea about shifting Alonso to left field. I have seen some people advocate trying him as a third baseman - I guess he played third in his high-school days.

    I generally am on the train that playing guys out of position does not yield good results as a rule, but with Pete and Dom, if they can be equal left fielders defensively, having Dom at first is the way to go.

    I am still hoping for George Springer and shifting Nimmo to left, and if there is no DH, that is one too many good hitters for this game of musical at-bats, but they'll have to make it work somehow.

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