Sometimes, one
of our terrific and knowledgeable readers puts together something that is
particularly comprehensive and well thought out.
The reader, "Remember 1969", posted this to an article on Monday, and I thought I would post it in toto and see what you readers think about it:
Remember 1969 says:
"I have been putting
some different "How to build the 2021 Mets" plans together.
As long
as it is Winter Meetings week, I'll try something a little different and get things going.
This
plan is called "Let's get young and defensive"
Trade 1: Steven Matz to the Twins for Byron Buxton (swap of
$5M contracts)
Trade 2: Ronny Mauricio to the Dodgers for their prospect C Keibert Ruiz
Signing 1: Kolton Wong to play second base (2 yrs $20M)
Trade 3: Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Robert Gsellman, Mark Vientos, Freddy Valdez, Thomas Szapucki, and Franklyn Kilome for Francisco Lindor, Zach Plesac, and Joey Cantillo
Signing 2: Jurickson Profar as the utility guy (3 yrs $18M)
Signing 3: Taijuan Walker for the #4 rotation slot (3 yrs
$21M)
Signing 4: Package Deal - Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright
(Molina @ 2 yrs $12M, Wainwright 1 yr $5M)
Signing 5: Michael Conforto (5 yrs $90M)
Signing 6: Brad Hand (2 yrs, $20M)
Starting Line Up:
The final roster look after all that:
Starting Line Up:
C: K. Ruiz ($1M)
1B: D. Smith ($1M)
2B: K. Wong ($10M)
SS: F. Lindor ($20M)
3B: A. Gimenez (.75M) (straight platoon with J.D. Davis)
LF: B. Nimmo ($3M)
CF: B. Buxton ($5M)
RF: M. Conforto ($18M)
DH: P. Alonso ($1M)
Bench:
L. Guillorme ($1M)
J. Davis ($1M)
Y. Molina ($6M)
J. Profar ($6M)
Starting Rotation:
J. deGrom ($36M)
M. Stroman ($19MM)
Z. Plesac ($1M)
T. Walker ($6M)
A. Wainwright ($5M)
Bullpen:
E. Diaz ($6M)
S. Lugo ($3M)
J. Familia ($11M)
T. May ($7.5M)
M. Castro ($0.75M)
B. Hand ($10M)
D. Betances ($6M)
S. McWilliams ($0.75M)
The total, including Noah Syndergaard, comes in south of $200M for 2021.
The defense could be all world.
1B: D. Smith ($1M)
2B: K. Wong ($10M)
SS: F. Lindor ($20M)
3B: A. Gimenez (.75M) (straight platoon with J.D. Davis)
LF: B. Nimmo ($3M)
CF: B. Buxton ($5M)
RF: M. Conforto ($18M)
DH: P. Alonso ($1M)
Bench:
L. Guillorme ($1M)
J. Davis ($1M)
Y. Molina ($6M)
J. Profar ($6M)
Starting Rotation:
J. deGrom ($36M)
M. Stroman ($19MM)
Z. Plesac ($1M)
T. Walker ($6M)
A. Wainwright ($5M)
Bullpen:
E. Diaz ($6M)
S. Lugo ($3M)
J. Familia ($11M)
T. May ($7.5M)
M. Castro ($0.75M)
B. Hand ($10M)
D. Betances ($6M)
S. McWilliams ($0.75M)
The total, including Noah Syndergaard, comes in south of $200M for 2021.
The defense could be all world.
The committed salary for 2022 sits about $163M without a shortstop and two starting rotation pieces (including Robinson Cano's $21M)."
Some added thoughts from our "GM" R. 1969:
Misc. Notes:
(1) The pitching staff is very right handed. David Peterson as a lefty will be the first in line for replacement in the rotation. Daniel Zamora is the top of the depth for the bullpen.
(2) There is no true centerfielder on the active bench. Mallex Smith and Guillermo Heredia are first call at Syracuse if needed long term. Brandon Nimmo can fill in in a pinch. Jurickson Profar may also be able to play a few innings if necessary.
(3) Third base will be a straight platoon with Gimenez and Davis.
(4) If there is no DH, Alonso becomes the starting first baseman and there will be some sort of 'super platoon' with Smith/Nimmo/Alonso to get them all as many at-bats as possible.
(5) This roster will not cost the Mets any top level free agency signings in the 2020-2021 off-season. Conforto's extension will be the biggest.
(6) The roster as constructed will cost about $187M, $197M with Syndergaard, who is due to return in mid-2021.
(7) Bringing Cano's salary back on the books after a year off, there is a total commitment of $163M for 2022. The openings will be at shortstop, two starting pitchers, and one bullpen piece.
(8) Lindor will sign a 6 year extension with a player opt-out after 4. The contract will be worth $175M over 6 years.
(9) A non-player announcement is that Edgardo Alfonso will return and be the bench coach for Rojas.
(1) The pitching staff is very right handed. David Peterson as a lefty will be the first in line for replacement in the rotation. Daniel Zamora is the top of the depth for the bullpen.
(2) There is no true centerfielder on the active bench. Mallex Smith and Guillermo Heredia are first call at Syracuse if needed long term. Brandon Nimmo can fill in in a pinch. Jurickson Profar may also be able to play a few innings if necessary.
(3) Third base will be a straight platoon with Gimenez and Davis.
(4) If there is no DH, Alonso becomes the starting first baseman and there will be some sort of 'super platoon' with Smith/Nimmo/Alonso to get them all as many at-bats as possible.
(5) This roster will not cost the Mets any top level free agency signings in the 2020-2021 off-season. Conforto's extension will be the biggest.
(6) The roster as constructed will cost about $187M, $197M with Syndergaard, who is due to return in mid-2021.
(7) Bringing Cano's salary back on the books after a year off, there is a total commitment of $163M for 2022. The openings will be at shortstop, two starting pitchers, and one bullpen piece.
(8) Lindor will sign a 6 year extension with a player opt-out after 4. The contract will be worth $175M over 6 years.
(9) A non-player announcement is that Edgardo Alfonso will return and be the bench coach for Rojas.
There you have it:
"GM Remember 1969's" massive roster re-do proposal.
Does it optimize the Mets?
Is it achievable?
Are there better plans?
Let's hear what you guys think.
The only quibble I have is the proposed trade for Molina and Wainwright. Molina is a FA and Wainwright is a Cardinal. Now if the Cardinals retain Molina via FA contract, then it's interesting, though both Wainwright and Molina would have 10/5 rights of refusal for the deal. Otherwise, it's a well thought out revamp of the current team.
ReplyDeleteHard for me to evaluate because of my limited knowledge of other teams' minors, but it's certainly an interesting look.
ReplyDeleteThe 21 year old Catcher, who hasn't hit for average above Class A, and doesn't hit for power, doesn't seem ready for prime time, so old man Yadi would have to get a lot of playing time.
And where's David Peterson?
I'm already irrationally attached to my Mets core. Smith, McNeil, Alonso, Nimmo, Gimenez, Conforto, DeGrom, Peterson are my homegrown core and I will want too much for any of them to give them up.
ReplyDeleteI do like Remember 1969's plan quite a bit,
ReplyDeleteDallas brings up a great point, though, We get attached to our better players. They become part of us. Especially when we've had so many years offensively of weakness until Alonso and McNeil showed up.
I would do Mauricio for Keibert Ruiz but I am not sure the Dodgers would see that as even.
I would love (assuming a DH, which seems to be in doubt) to have a line up of Alonso DH Smith 1B, McNeil 2B, Lindor SS, Bryant 3B, McCann C, Nimmo, Springer and Conforto, but that will get super expensive. I wonder if Cohen would break the bank for that, while adding Bauer or Odorizzi and Hand.
But, again, I like the Remember 1969 plan. It's a bold makeover and would result in a very, very good team.
Bill, Ruiz played in AA and AAA in 2019 and hit OK as a 20 year old, and even went 2 for 9 as a Dodger. Likely he is ready, but unclear if he is ready to step in as a # 1 catcher. LAD would only do it if Mauricio is not overrated, in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteA couple things . .
ReplyDeleteReese, both Molina and Wainwright are free agents and there has been some press as how they would like to sign together and maintain the battery.
Tom, your proposed lineup of alonso-smith-mcneil-bryant-lindor-mccann-nimmo-springer-conforto is almost exactly what i had written out in my "plan 1" a while ago (the only change was that Cano was still the second baseman at the time). I like that line-up as well. What are your proposed trades to land Lindor and Bryant?
Some additional notes that were not posted with the plan that I had included in my document:
ReplyDeleteMisc. Notes:
(1) The pitching staff is very right handed. David Peterson as a lefty will be the first in line for replacement in the rotation. Daniel Zamora is the top of the depth for the bullpen.
(2) There is no true centerfielder on the active bench. Mallex Smith and Guillermo Heredia are first call at Syracuse if needed long term. Brandon Nimmo can fill in in a pinch. Jurickson Profar may also be able to play a few innings if necessary.
(3) Third base will be a straight platoon with Gimenez and Davis.
(4) If there is no DH, Alonso becomes the starting first baseman and there will be some sort of 'super platoon' with Smith/Nimmo/Alonso to get them all as many at-bats as possible.
(5) This roster will not cost the Mets any top level free agency signings in the 2020-2021 off-season. Conforto's extension will be the biggest.
(6) The roster as constructed will cost about $187M, $197M with Syndergaard, who is due to return in mid-2021.
(7) Bringing Cano's salary back on the books after a year off, there is a total commitment of $163M for 2022. The openings will be at shortstop, two starting pitchers, and one bullpen piece.
(8) Lindor will sign a 6 year extension with a player opt-out after 4. The contract will be worth $175M over 6 years.
(9) A non-player announcement is that Edgardo Alfonso will return and be the bench coach for Rojas.
I'm 100% against Lindor. Substitute Gimenez for me and I'm happy. I can't be giving up Gimenez and possibly more for 1-year of Lindor. I can't be going all in on 2020 and sacrifice the future. Lindor blocks me from upgrading other spots with his $20 million salary plus if you try to resign him next year your simply paying too many people too much money in 2021 and beyond. Nothing personal on Lindor great player I would love to have in a different situation it just makes no sense given the Mets current construction.
ReplyDeleteRemember 1969, I added your additional thoughts above into the article just now.
ReplyDeleteOn that same note I'm similarly against Bryant/Arenado. Too much money and assets for a 1 year upgrade. I want long term success. 2020 will be competitive with a great chance to be really good but its a building block.
ReplyDeleteBTW this is not based on 1969s fun plan of major moves which removes the Mets best player not named DeGrom. I can't be trading McNeil, no way no how.
For funsies the other day I tried calculating the WAR per 1000 plate appearances for various free agents and the 2020 season. This normalizes those players who only had partial seasons due to injury, shortened seasons, late call ups the majors etc. Look who is at the top of the list...
Career: WAR / 1000 PA
9.2/1024 = 8.98 (McNeil)
28.4/3510 = 8.10 (Lindor)
27.3/3567 = 7.65 (Springer)
1.0/132 = 7.57 (Gimenez)
19.5/2940 = 6.63 (Realmuto)
7.8/1309 = 5.96 (Nimmo)
14.4/2501 = 5.76 (Conforto)
5.2/932 = 5.57 (Alonso)
1.0/728 = 1.37 (Smith)
2.1/1564 = 1.34 (Rosario)
0.2/863 = 0.23 (JD Davis)
2020: WAR / 1000 PA
2.0/233 = 8.58 (Conforto)
1.9/222 = 8.56 (Springer)
1.7/199 = 8.54 (Smith)
1.0/132 = 7.57 (Gimenez)
1.6/225 = 7.11 (Nimmo)
1.3/209 = 6.22 (McNeil)
1.2/195 = 6.15 (Realmuto)
0.8/266 = 3.01 (Lindor)
0/239 = 0 (Alonso)
-.2/229 = -0.87 (JD Davis)
-.2/147 = -1.36 (Rosario)
Dallas, good points. It all depends not on the Luxury Cap, when all is said and done, it is Cohen's Cap, which may - the Luxury Cap, or could perhaps end up being significantly higher.
ReplyDeleteObviously injuries to play a role and sustained success is a better indicator than some of the smaller sample sizes.
ReplyDeleteDallas, your WAR list is interesting and enlightening.
ReplyDeleteI am confused about WAR. You have McNeil at 1.3 and Alonso at 0.0 for 2020. Alonso, while hitting .080 points less, still had 12 runs scored more than McNeil, 12 RBI more, 12 more homers, and an OPS difference of just .019, in spite of the batting average difference. There seems to be a lot of 'devil in the details' when you drill down.
ReplyDeleteI just don't like using WAR by itself to compare players. In 2019, Steven Matz had a higher WAR than Seth Lugo .. which one would you have traded?
Remember 1969, good points. Alonso's defense was poor, which hurt him.
ReplyDeleteHis name should be synonomous with DH.
Also, the Mets led the majors in LOB, and I believe Alonso, despite his RBIs, was a chief culprit on tha team of LOB culprits.
I agree 100% with the comment about Bryant and Arenado. They are not the right players for this team and will be too expensive.
ReplyDeleteMy preference for Lindor rests in the fact that he plays the premium middle infield position very well (2 gold gloves), with excitement along with power and speed. He can make the whole team better.
As for McNeil vs Alonso. RBI's are a VERY bad evaluator of performance. Its a factor of how many opportunities you get with men on base or scoring position. Defense also plays a big role. They also say that OBP is very undervalued in OPS in terms of player value. OPS is a rough indicator that massively improved on the old metrics and WAR was made to take it a step further. Alonsos OBP was 60 points lower...he made a lot more outs. Also you watched the games and you know how bad Alonso looked until just the final 2 weeks or so of the season. All that being said McNeil had some baserunning blunders and was not all that great at 3B and started the season slow but overall he was clearly very productive even if at a lower rate than before.
ReplyDeleteAs for 2019 I think starters generally have higher WARs than relievers as they pitch a lot more innings. Matz was a competent starting pitcher in 2019. Its a bit more difficult to compare starters vs relievers. Also look how Lugo fared as a starter last year. He was completely ineffective. How you pitch is going to be different if you go 1 inning vs 5-7.
Dallas, good points.
ReplyDeleteMatz has been lousy in his first innings in his career, and lousy holding guys on. If he comes out of the pen, which he may or may not, he needs to be much better.
It is interesting that none of you commented on the Buxton trade. With all the chatter about George Springer, I thought that might tickle some nerves.
ReplyDeleteI am not really sure even how I feel about that. I have been a proponent of obtaining a real centerfielder since the end of the year and have always thought that Springer was the best option, but Buxton can certainly shag them with the best of them. He just needs to hit and stay healthy. It would be a risk, but if he turns out to produce like his early reputation indicated, it could be a massive reward.
I have also thought about Ramon Laureano and what it would take to bring him over (probably a lot, if it were even possible).
I have no other interest in any other centerfielders - not a fan of JBJ, Kevin Pillar was good at one point, but that would be a Wilpon type move (IMO). Kevin Kiermaier is a great fielder, but would cost too much in prospects and is on the wrong side of 30.
I am anxious to see what Pete Crow-Armstrong and Isaiah Greene bring to the table over the next 2 to 3 years.
Remember 1969, good point on Buxton, but why do you think the other team would make that proposed trade?
ReplyDelete"I am anxious to see what Pete Crow-Armstrong and Isaiah Greene bring to the table over the next 2 to 3 years."
ReplyDeleteI totally agree. These guys are key to the future as our OF gets more expensive and maybe someone like Springer loses a step in CF. I'm totally guessing here but I think Cohen spends up to the tax this year and blows by it in 2022&2023 and then you see it fall back down as guys like PCA, Alvarez, Allan, Baty etc start taking spots from the more expensive guys. I mean that seems close to the Dodgers blueprint. I hope like the Dodgers the Mets are a team of home grown talent they were able to identify and extend filled in by some better FA that we have in the past
"I am anxious to see what Pete Crow-Armstrong and Isaiah Greene bring to the table over the next 2 to 3 years."
ReplyDeleteI totally agree. These guys are key to the future as our OF gets more expensive and maybe someone like Springer loses a step in CF. I'm totally guessing here but I think Cohen spends up to the tax this year and blows by it in 2022&2023 and then you see it fall back down as guys like PCA, Alvarez, Allan, Baty etc start taking spots from the more expensive guys. I mean that seems close to the Dodgers blueprint. I hope like the Dodgers the Mets are a team of home grown talent they were able to identify and extend filled in by some better FA that we have in the past
Dallas, that might turn out to be Cohen's spending approach. It would be a good one. We all have to remember that if the Mets need it, players will be available mid season, too.
ReplyDelete