What are the in-house 5th outfielder candidates right now?
I see 4 in-house possibles:
Guillermo Heredia - the righty CF, turning 30, feels to me like visions of Mets Scrub Outfielders Past. But Scrooge is no longer the Mets' owner.
Make a graph of Heredia's season batting averages - .250, .249, .236, .225, and .212 over the past 5 years - and the trend is clear and NOT good. Career .239/.316/.344. 7 of 19 in career steals. Some may see this righty hitter as a solid 5th OF candidate - but I've seen this Mets-settling-for-less stuff in the past. Can we do better in 2021, please?
Mallex Smith - the lefty bat only hit .227 as a starting OF for Seattle in 2019, but still managed to steal 46 of 55 bases. Strikeouts were kind of high, too. He hits lefties and righties pretty equally well.
His 2020 was a total bust as he went just 6 for 45. However, in 2018, he excelled: .296/.367/.406 and 40 steals. If he can rebound to somewhere between 2018 and 2019, why couldn't he be a speedy 5th outfielder for this team?
Defensively, he has been so-so, therefore to secure a 5th outfielder spot, it sure would help him if he could up his defensive game, as he has the speed. Someone posted that he knows Mallex and that he is very personable and likable. That counts for something.
Jose Peraza - while primarily an infielder, the righty hitter has played the outfield 40 starts, 65 games in total - one error, no assists. Career .270 hitter, 78 career steals. But he has hit just .239 and .225 the past two seasons, which to me gives a little but of a hit-well-early-but-declining-since Ruben Tejada feel to Peraza. Will play 2021 as a 27 year old. Anything left in his tank?
Johneshwy Fargas - 21 for 51 in winter ball through 12/23, 16 RBIs and a slug % over .700. And 7 of 10 in steals. TEARING...IT...UP!
The righty 26 year old may be blossoming. At all levels, he has stolen 262 of 365 bags so far, so speed is an asset for him. He hit .276 in 29 spring training at bats in 2020, with 6 of 7 steals. Maybe he leapt his game forward in 2020, without the game stats to prove it.
Looking outside those 4, our friend of Macks Mets, David Rubin, however, is high on the Mets going after Kike Hernandez.
The 29 year old Dodger free agent is a career .240 hitter with some pop, and reputed to be a good, high energy teammate. .230 in 2020 with just a .270 OBP.
Do you folks think we'll find our 5th outfielder out of these several gents?
Or will the free agent market be filled with other, better talent that the Mets could nab? It sure seems MLB outfield free agency has some abundance. Our new GM and assistant GM will certainly have a lot to say here. A lot will, of course, depend if the Mets spring for George Springer.
I'd like to mention Quinn Brodey and Tim Tebow here, but their chances of starting 2021 with the big club are somewhere between nil and sub-nil, so I won't mention them, even though I just did.
Who would you tab to be your 5th outfielder?
Considering you have infielders who can play the OF in McNeil and Dom you are not necessarily locked in to a 5th OFer. That being the case I think youd want a specialist like a base stealer or premier defender. I can see Marisnik coming back, he does a lot of things and can play multiple games if needed.
ReplyDeleteAlbert Almora is my choice. He is a stud defensively and I think a change of scenery will do him well. He hasn’t been the same hitter since he hurt a fan with a foul ball a couple of years ago. I think he can be a great get once he figures out how to hit again. Also was once a top prospect coming up. Sign him up Jarrod
ReplyDeleteMy second choice would be Jurickson Profar. Can play both infield and outfield positions and IMO he would be a great 4th or 5th OF
I'm still not sure who the 2nd and 3rd outfielders are after Michael Conforto. I don't want guys who play out there just because they have a uniform assigned to them. I want them to contribute positively. That leaves out a lot of who is currently on the roster.
ReplyDeleteI like the Zozo's picks. I am not sure why Heredia is still around. Alomra is a risk, but also could be a huge reward. This is not the first time I have promoted Profar. He would be a very fine utility pickup.
ReplyDeleteI also like Reese's comments - spot on.
Barring trades, I don't see room for a #5 who isn't also one of pur surplus IFers.
ReplyDeleteWhen (not if) we acquire a full-time CFer, Nimmo will likely shift to LF. Who knows what that spells for Dom, but he'll have to play somewhere. Depending on what we do at 2B or 3B, McNeil and JDD need spots to play.
Heredia is a decent backup for CF, but I don't see the Mets signing any other OFers until the FA situation clears. If we trade Nimmo to make room for Dom, then I can see looking for someone.
But right now, an acquisition for #5 seems premature.
Unless we trade either Smith or Pete, if there is no DH, Dom has got to play, bad OF defense or not. .316/.377/.616 despite being jerked around the field, and 42 RBIs in just 177 ABs. Which projects to 126 RBIs in 530 ABs.
ReplyDeleteAnd, who knows, he may hit even better in 2021.
Almora could be an answer. I think, for a championship contender, only Mallex Smith is worth considering from the current guys, and he has to show that they have not figured him out.
If San Diego can make big deals, it is our turn now. Open checkbook, please.
Almora, just to be clear, is 4 for 8 in steals lifetime. Mallex Smith has been up slightly more and stolen 120 of 154. That is a major plus for him over Almora, wouldn't you say? Almora is clearly a better fielder, though.
ReplyDeleteThe question is whether the major leagues have figured both these guys out, as neither hit well in 2019 or 2020. Lagares had his best hitting year at 25 but never got there again.
Before you sign up For Dom in the outfield, you may want to look at this:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/hr_mlb/status/1310001499787988992
However, according to baseball reference, Dom had a 0 Defense Runs Saved score which is better than Brandon Nimmo and his -5 Defensive Runs saved in CF.
I saw way too much of Nimmo in CF and Smith in LF last year and hope I don't see it again.
That is why I think Springer should be the priority.
If Springer is signed, he and Conforto would play almost every day. No DH? Who sits? You'd have Dom, Pete, and Nimmo for 2 positions. Which I am still OK with. 4 lineup spots = 648 games. Springer 150, Conforto, 150, that leaves 348 starts for the other 3 guys. And 10 road games with a DH helps a little more. For a year, until universal DH, if that is what it turns out to be, the Mets could make that work, and obviously, if anyone got hurt, it immediately works.
ReplyDeleteUnless a trade overwhelms me, I keep all those guys and Springer, knowing the logjam eases in 2022 with a DH.
Tom I agree with your assessment but I am getting the feeling that Sandy does not have the stomach for the big free agent... I can see him saying that we need to rebuild the farms system so we dont get any free agents with draft picks attached to them...
ReplyDeletebest way to rebuild the farm is to pay for it... we should Have signed Cespedes's little brother, and the Japanese Infielder... these are young guys that are not top of the market players... makes JD, Rosario expendable for that roster flexibility... (more important as trade assets)
I thought there is a fixed date for signing IFAs, sometime in January. Why are some yeams doing it already?
DeleteEddie, I saw where Steve Cohen said that bidding for top guys has been very quiet so far - I still think that he comes away with either Bauer or Springer.
ReplyDeleteI agree with John's comments above, and wonder even more if the Mets have given any thought to the possibility of asking Alonso to try LF.
ReplyDeleteAre we really better off with mediocrity at both 1B and LF than mediocrity in LF with great D at 1B?
I certainly can't answer the question of how bad Pete would be there, but how much worse than Dom could he be if he really tried in ST (unlike matador Hundley)?
I have a feeling that Alonso would be historically bad in LF.
ReplyDeleteHe played some 3B before turning pro, that would make more (but not much) sense.
Yeah I can’t see Alonso being any good in LF. He is too burly and doesn’t look agile at all. Plus I think he would get hurt too easily running around too much. Think of Cespedes over and over again working out to be a body builder instead of a baseball player.
ReplyDeleteAgain, I have no idea if it would work, and I wouldn't force him into it, but if he's willing to try it ST would give him time to try.
ReplyDeleteJohn Kruk was built like a bull, and he did it. Darren Dalton had to give up catching with a bad knee and became a RFer. Yogi Berra moved there. Ralph Kiner played LF for much of his career.
IMO, 1B is a much more important position for D, and Pete looked helpless there at times, especially with Squirrel and JDD throwing.
A lot will be determined should MLB come to an agreement with MLBPA to continue the DH in the NL for 2021. If added, there is no reason to move Alonso to any other position except DH (Nimmo to LF and Dom to 1B).
ReplyDeleteIf the DH is suspended for 2021, I wonder if Sandy signs Springer given that draft choice compensation has to be provided to the Astros (does Uncle Steve want to do this given that building a minor league core was stated to be a priority) plus Nimmo or Dom have to sit. Moreover, the Mets will be obligated to a 5 year contract north of $25 Mil per, for Springer.
Top tier FAs will definitely be signed to lucrative contracts. But maybe not this offseason. There will be many better FA classes comprised of top-tier players available over the next few years.
Glad you mentioned Fargas. He also looked very impressive last year during the initial Spring Training. I have a feeling he's a candidate to really break out and make an impact off the bench sooner rather than later. I see Timo Perez with a higher hit skill and more gap power.
ReplyDeleteVery good point on future free agents, Roy Hobbs. I am sure the Mets leaders chart all that out and are planning multi-year to determine who is coming out in the future, the likelihood the Mets will need them and sign them. This year's spending will have to occur in that context.
ReplyDeleteSorry, they are ALL scrubs. Heredia is the defensive backup.
ReplyDeleteDrew Ferguson is a guy I overlooked - recently signed, never made the majors, 28 now, has hit well the last 2 years in the PCL, has speed and D.
ReplyDeleteSorry I missed this article yesterday. I have a clear choice for 5th OF. If you look at Drew Ferguson, Sandy's #1 pick in the minor league Rule 5 draft, you can't help but be impressed. He is a speedy CF with a very good glove, who looks major league ready. I was struck by the similarities between his career minor league stats, and those of Jeff McNeil.
ReplyDeleteMiLB Stats - AB - AVG - OBP - SLG - OPS - HR - SB
McNeil - - 1617 -.311 -.380 -.442 -.822 - 28 - 56
Ferguson - 1689 -.293 -.394 -.452 -.845 - 46 - 92
In his slightly over 3 years of college ball, he slashed .340/.456/.560 for an OPS of 1.016. Like McNeil, he played his age 26 season at AAA, although he didn't get a callup. If Furguson turns out close to McNeil, he will be an absolute steal. I think if he is invited to spring training as an NRI he has a good shot to win the 5th outfielder job.
Oh wow, Tom. Between the time I started this comment, and the time I got back to finish it and post it, you stole my thunder. lol. np, glad we seem to be in agreement.
ReplyDeleteHerb, Ferguson got blocked in the Astros system by people like...Springer.
ReplyDeleteOnly flaw is he fans more than McNeil.
He’s got a shot.
True Tom, and a K can never be a productive out, like a grounder that moves a runner over or a sac fly. But if he hits at the MLB level like he did in the minors, runs the bases, and covers the field, I'll take him.
ReplyDeleteHerb, he would have started over Colin Cowgill if he had been on that team, no doubt, so it would be nice to see Fergy make it.
ReplyDeleteAlways a pleasure, Herb - stay safe, and happy new years.