Reese Kaplan -- What a Difference a Day Makes!

As I sat here Thursday night pondering the Mets payroll and how they might fill out the rest of their roster, I was working with a figure of $40 million which I was told was actually closer to $32 million.  

Well, with Friday’s massive contract negotiation day the Mets now have approximately $185 million committed to 2021 payroll with J.D. Davis the lone holdout who did not reach an agreed upon number.  That means if they want to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $210 million then the club must somehow fill out the roster using the remaining $25 million.  As crooned in the headline, “What a difference a day makes!”

The question now for the Mets as a business organization is how best to fill those other roster spots while not pushing into the accountant’s penalty box for exceeding their payroll limit.  You would think that the poor negotiation with J.D. Davis may spell the end for his tenure in New York.  

I know it’s two different organizations, but in the past when a player forced the club to go to arbitration he was not much longer a member of the club.  At this point and after the poor 2020 short season not too many folks would shed tears if Davis left, though unless there was a DH slot open somewhere he’s not destined to be a very popular man when his left hand is covered by a baseball glove.

The other way the Mets can get some salary flexibility is to decide to try to peddle away some of their pricier players to free up cash to use for the soon-to-start 2021 season.  Right now the obvious piece to lead that list is Jeurys Familia who is set to earn $11.7 million as an annual salary for 2021.  

When you consider that Brad Hand who is rumored to be hot on the Mets prospect sheet of relievers is likely to earn less than the one year commitment of $10 million he could have received if the Mets picked him up when Cleveland kicked him out the door, one of these things is not like the other.  One is right handed.  One is left handed.  One makes over $11 million.  One likely makes under $10 million.  One has been stellar for several years in a row.  One is Jeurys Familia. 

 
The other obvious candidate to go is Dellin Betances.  It was obvious in 2020 he was still working his way back from injury recovery and his pitching was abominably bad.  This season he’s not earning a huge fortune by MLB standards -- just $6 million -- but it’s in the neighborhood of what he earned when was healthy and pitching to All Star quality.  

No one is going to take him off the Mets’ hands until he proves he can pitch like the old Dellin Betances (and if he does, then there’s not necessarily any reason to wish him away).  However, between these two pitchers you’re committing to nearly $18 million in payroll.  Add in the $2.075 due Brad Brach and that’s a cool $20 million that the club is giving for substandard performance.

Now given the fact that the stat sheets are readily available and the ugly scouting reports are similarly in the public domain, getting another club to bite at any of these three formerly top notch relievers is going to be quite a challenge.  Consequently the better ways to make them hit LaGuardia for the first flight out of town would be to take on someone else’s equally bad contracts but in a position of need, or to take on some other club’s extremely expensive financial burden long term but in doing so receiving only a modest bump in financial responsibility in 2021.
  
On the former, there are many players throughout the game of baseball who earn mucho dinero for what they once accomplished in the past, but now through age, injury or just degradation of skills are no longer worth what they’re earning.  

As an example, the St. Louis Cardinals are not getting good value for Matt Carpenter who has logged more innings at 3rd base than any other position on the field.  He is set to earn $18.5 million in 2021 with an option for 2022 that kicks in automatically if he obtains 550 ABs as he won’t hit the combined totals for 2020 and 2021 due to the shortened season.  

He’s been worth 8.9 WAR over the past four seasons.  Split evenly, that’s less than 2.3 WAR per season and it’s been going downhill.  Also throw in the fact he’s a lefty hitter which is something the club doesn’t need.  However, he’s the classic example of how you might parlay three questionable relief pitchers together for one questionable third baseman and actually come out cash-even.  

The Seattle Mariners have Corey Seager’s older brother Kyle who earns the same pay for even less production.  His past four year WAR total is 7.5.  As a point of comparison, it’s possible for a Francisco Lindor to produce close to that total in a single season.  Anyway, Seager is likely done in Seattle after this season and will receive a buyout of his contract option.  Like Carpenter, he’s left handed and not a great fit either.  

So that brings us to the second approach.  What about taking on another club’s financial burden for the next several years in exchange for them taking your salaries for one season?  The first name that obviously comes to mind is Colorado’s Nolan Arenado who earns $35 million per season for each of the next four years, then drops to $32 million and then down to $27 million.  

It’s signing on for a stellar Gold Glove third baseman who has terrible Coors Field and road trip splits who would certainly not hurt you in the least and would add another formidable right handed bat to the lineup.  However, to make a deal like this one would require a $199 million commitment for his career in ages 30 through 35.  Getting the Rockies to bite on these $20 million of pitchers plus J.D. Davis would save them almost $14 million this year alone and then the remainder of the $164 million on the contract.  Is that kind of deal worth doing?  Maybe, or maybe not. 
 
The other obvious alternative here is Kris Bryant of the Cubs who has fallen out of favor in the Windy City.  He is set to earn around $19 million for 2021, so giving a similar package to Chicago would be cash neutral.  However, he can become a free agent for the 2022 season (like Lindor) and there’s no guarantee he would stick around.  That’s both good and bad as it means no financial obligation but it also means no answer for 3rd base (unless Robinson Cano’s return means that the hot corner will be Jeff McNeil’s new home).  

Bryant is also a right handed hitter without the home/away splits that plague Arenado.  He’s a good fielder but not the best in the game like Arenado is.  

It’s time for the Mets to put their heads together and see how to lose some of their payroll that isn’t terribly well valued for 2021 and find someone who could help them more this year at another position who may or may not be around for seasons into the future.