WHO'S OUR CENTERFIELDER GONNA BE???
Any baseball analyst probably has reams of data on how players decline after age 30.
The coveted (but potentially hugely expensive) George Springer is 31 yr/113 days old.
A name bandied about as an alternate to Springer for the Mets is Jackie Bradley. He is 30 yr/265 days old.
A benefit of Springer to the Mets would be a righty bat in a crowded lefty outfield, assuming no DH.
(BTW, why the heck is it mid-January and the NL has not decided on this, yea or nay?)
Bradley would just add another lefty bat to an outfield with lefty bats Nimmo, Conforto, and Smith.
I know Brandon Nimmo’s CF defense was bad...but his on base % is great. (Nimmo age 27 yr/289 days old).
Is there another viable alternative to Springer and J Bradley? Jake Marisnick (29 yr/286 days old) perhaps?
Before that, how about each player’ career WAR per plate appearance, and their RTOT?
RTOT being defined as the number of runs above or below average the player is based on total plays made.
So, let's break it down, including projected splits from Baseball Reference:
SPRINGER: 28 WAR, 3,587 PA, 0.78 WAR per 100 PAs. 27 career RTOT. Projected .264/.353/.495
BRADLEY: 18 WAR, 3,281 PA, 0.54 WAR per 100 PAs. -3 career RTOT. Projected .237/.324/.413
NIMMO: 8 WAR, 1,389 PA, 0.58 WAR per 100 PAs. -2 career RTOT. Projected .252/.381/.452
MARISNICK: 11 WAR, 1,884 PA, 0.58 WAR per 100 PAs. 38 career RTOT! Projected .235/.298/.412
Nimmo unfortunately, based on RTOT, is a solid LF and quite sub-par CF. something to be considered when comparing these 4 players. And I am a little puzzled as to Bradley's low RTOT.
If Steve Cohen decides money is no object, they could get Springer, who right now is clearly the best of the 4 as a CF, but he wants a huge contract.
Considering Marisnick's righty bat vs. Bradley adding yet another lefty bat. his tremendous RTOT. and his nearly comparable to Bradley splits, and being a year younger, perhaps Marisnick is a worthy consideration, using the substantial money saved for MORE PITCHING.
And Marisnick is nearly 2 years younger than Springer, which should at least be considered.
Especially if there is another excellent CF free agent coming available next off-season.
But perhaps the best of all would be Kevin Pillar - a solid righty hitter and a strong CF. You can look his stats up on Baseball Reference for yourself. He hits lefties in his career at a fine .286/.320/.464 pace and could be used mostly against just lefties, As a full time player, Baseball Reference projects him at .253/.296/.422, which is solid. He just turned 32 last week, but if the price is low enough, he could free up $$ that would allow for aggressive pitching upgrades as well.
THOUGHTS, FOLKS?
I think the only full time CF that makes sense without the DH is Springer. Otherwise you need a defensive replacement or platoon player that maximizes getting all 4 of Conforto/Nimmo/Alonso/Smith into the lineup pretty much every day. Having a DH would allow the Mets to get all 4 of those guys everyday and open the door to more options in CF. Springer is so good that sitting one of those 4 on a rotating basis for 1-year is probably ok if there is no DH with the ability to maximize your returns in 2022. Nimmo/Smith playing out of position is not ideal but I think their offense more than makes up for the defense if you have to go that way. I really hope the Mets spring for Springer to finish out the offseason.
ReplyDeleteWhile everyone is focusing on free agents, maybe it's time to officially make Lugo a reliever again, then try to trade Jeurys Familia's salary for someone else's CF salary. That opens up the Kiermaiers and others who have multiple years left on their deals.
ReplyDeleteHi Tom....couldn't agree with you more. As a new poster on this site I have been spouting the very same scenario, unfortunately I couldn't get any one to listen.
ReplyDeleteI believe they have to forget JBJ at all costs. Yes he is the best defensive CF available BUT, his age, cost, and the fact that he another lefty bat in an already predominately left handed line up. My biggest concern with him though is he really is not a good hitter (lifetime 234 avg, 150+ strikeouts).
My first choice for CF in this scenario would be Kevin Pillar. Great platoon partner for Nimmo, defensive replacement. Also, he would not embarrass himself if he has to play extended time due to injuries.
My fall back option would be Marasnick, although he gets exposed with extensive playing time. He would be a platoon partner/defensive replacement only.
If they go this route they still have money to enhance the pitching staff with a reliever and an addition al starter.
Dallas, I saw in a Dec article where Buster Olney says his contacts tell him there will be a DH in 2021. That would really help sort things out.
ReplyDeleteI hope if we get Springer he holds up. The Jason Bays and Ken Griffey Jr and David Wright shows that age is often a tough taskmaster
Reese, I cannot imagine that they are not looking for ways to move Familia. The metrics guys can't love high walks.
ReplyDeleteSo maybe they are really thinking about what you are saying.
Joe P - glad to have you posting here.
ReplyDeleteI am so puzzled why the JBJ that everyone touts defensively so much had such a low RTOT. When I saw that, it made me super skittish to go after him. Pillar seems a fine choice if they have a plan after his time is up - let's say he gets two years. Could Pete Crow Armstrong be ready by OD 2023? Very young, but he is a first rounder.
If they want to stay under the cap, they will need to be creative. Matz has to rebound strong or he will be traded or cut to help keep them under the cap.
Hi Tom, Thank You
ReplyDeleteSorry to say I'm not sure what RTOT is ( I must be showing my age ) My biggest problem with JBJ is that besides 1 or 2 good seasons his overall stats are awful. He strikes out way too much and doesn't make consistent contact.
Again, my choice would be Pillar but I agree with Reese about maybe finding a CF by swapping overpriced contracts. How about Lorenzo Cain for Familia???
He has 2 years left @16 per. I know he is declining but he is professional hitter with a gold glove 2 years ago. Still as good as Pillar or Springer in the field....just a thought
I have asked this question in several places and never gotten an answer and maybe someone here know.
ReplyDeleteIf we ship off a guy to another team and take on his entire salary does the player come off our tax line item completely? Fake example...we ship off Familia (or a Matz or any underperforming player) + pay the entirely of his salary to the A's for a random prospect does that clear the space for us? Is this a way around the tax, to ship guys off but eat most of their salaries? I assume this is a valid way to do things and makes it a lot more possible to get under the threshold if we need to.
Tom: I wonder if in this market we would be lucky enough to get him for just 5 years which would really limit the risk. You could slide him into Nimmos spot in 2023 and really hope PCA is ready. Our lineup with a DH & Springer would have to be the best in baseball or at least close to the Dodgers...
What about Albert Almora as a late-inning replacement for Nimmo (who would
ReplyDeleteslide over to LF to replace Dom)? Almora could also play CF against difficult LHPs. He would cost a lot less than JBJ and provide better BA with less HRs (and he is a RH hitter).
Pilar would be a good FA pickup except he has lost a step.
ReplyDeleteI agree with The Natural Roy Hobbs.
ReplyDeleteAlbert Almora should be considered for a low cost, defensive replacement, might catch lightning in a bottle type of pick up we should go after.
Also does it make a difference now if we need a another righty bat? The way I see the lineup is
Nimmo- (L)
Lindor- Switch hitter
McNiel- L
Alonso- R
Conforto- L
Davis- R
Smith- L
McCann- R
I think that’s pretty balanced to me
To follow Zozo’s concept of the balanced lineup, while it has its benefits, there is no way to put Dominic Smith in the 7th spot. Rather, I’d put Nimmo and Conforto at the top together because both are very comfortable against lefties and having a lefty in wouldn’t be as big an advantage for the other team. That can allow a juggling of the lineup to bring the better hitters to the top and drop a lower average hitter without much speed like Alonso lower.
ReplyDeleteNimmo
Conforto
Lindor
Smith
Alonso
McNeil
Davis
McCann
On the topic of another option CF, I brought up Matz for Cain with Milwaukee. Cain has been the second best defensive CF as rated by FanGraphs the last three years and it seems back-end starter is easier to fill in free agency than a qualified CF is. If Milwaukee says no, then just go into the season with what you have and keep your ear close to the phone. Certainly Marisnick, who’s always sucked, hasn’t become a quality hitter magically that there are calls for his signing.
TexasGus I agree with you on having to worry about lefty righty splits, but my lineups with this group of guys would be
ReplyDeleteNimmo
McNiel
Lindor
Conforto
Smith
Alonso
Davis
McCann
And if we get Springer and a DH I would put him 4th and push everyone down a spot
If we get Springer AND a DH, How do we fit both Smith and Pete into the lineup?
ReplyDeleteI'd look into getting both Pillar and JBJ, and IMO getting both would cost no more than Springer alone. And wouldn't tie up 5 years, either.
In 2-3 years, we might be able to add Crow to our menagerie, joining Squirrel and Polar Bear. 😂
Joe P: RTOT is defined as the number of runs above or below average the player is based on total plays made. Not a stat I grasp all that well.
ReplyDeleteCain for Familia? Could be a possibility.
Dallas, Springer has age risk for a long contract, but if Cohen is OK with that, I won’t argue.
ReplyDeleteBoy, I looked those line ps and DROOL. We do have to not discount Smith, who was on a prodigious XBH and RBI rate last year. Whether he hits there or not, he is a heckuva clean up caliber hitter.
ReplyDeleteSo has anybody looked at the stats for Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar? Brandon Nimmo outhits both of them no matter what hand the pitcher throws with. There is no sense in platooning these guys with Brandon at all.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to get better defense in centerfield, then the only available free agent that makes any sense (other than Springer) is Jackie Bradley, Jr. He is the only everyday centerfielder.
Yes, I understand he is left handed (don't care now with Lindor, Davis, Alonso, and McCann as starters and most pitchers are right handed anyway), and I understand that he may not hit for a great average. His career 162 game averages are 18 homers, 70 ribbies, and 11 sb's. I'll take that with great defense.
The defense he brings will enable Nimmo to slide to left full time, and assist the pitching staff greatly. Take a look at FanGraphs advanced fielding stats (as well as the Rdrs (defensive runs saved) column in baseball reference). I do not understand the Rtot that Tom found, but the UZR numbers are far above anyone else.
As far as right handed centerfielders, also remember that they tended a contract to Guillermo Heredia and picked up Drew Ferguson in the Rule 5 draft. Take a look at Ferguson's minor league stats - impressive prospect who they must keep on the roster or return. I see a parallel to J.D. Davis with his MiLB history as a breakout candidate. With those two, I don't think they are thinking of adding filler right handed outfielders, and frankly, it doesn't make much sense to.
Almora and Pillar have only be mentioned as part time players. They would be defensive replacements, with Nimmo getting the bulk of the playing time. They would be low cost options. As for Heridia, he is actually a below average fielder and a .239 lifetime hitter.
ReplyDeleteYou mentioned JBJ but did you realize he also is a .239 lifetime hitter who strikes out 30% of the time. He would also cost about 10mil a year....that's a hard pass on him. If you get him you can forget about any decent pitching upgrades. I do agree that Springer is everyone's first choice but unfortunately that doesn't seem like that will happen.
P.S. Tom, thanks for the info on RTOT.
Great points on JBJ and the others from Remember 1969 and Joe P. I will say this - my brother has seen JBJ more than me - and he says if we are getting someone bigger it has to be Springer and not JBJ, even though it would cost more. He feels JBJ would be a Wilpon move.
ReplyDelete