Word filters out of the Mets front office that during the voluntary “no comment” phase of Steve Cohen’s ownership of the ball club that they are trying desperately not just to trade away Jeurys Familia but also to find a taker for the former star, Dellin Betances. That move would free up another $17 million plus the $5 million from Steven Matz.
Together that $22 million would pay for some new assets without raising payroll, one huge asset without raising payroll or partially pay for one huge starting pitcher salary demand.
Well, you’ve got to hand it to them for trying. Obviously Jeurys Familia is not part of the future plans. Dellin Betances is possibly an easier trade than Familia as he’s only had one poor season in the majors and it was the short one of 2020 while trying to come back too quickly from injury. Both have had their highlights and their days at the All Star Game. There have to be interested parties out there who will do what the Red Sox, Rays and others did in 2017 when the salary dump brigade took place.
The debate among Mets fans is now how would you spend that $22 million if indeed you could acquire it?
Kris Bryant Approach
No one can dispute the gaudy numbers Bryant has posted in his major league career. He’s hit as many as 39 HRs and driven in as many as 102 runs during his surge to win the National League MVP as a second year player in 2016. That effort was a great follow up to his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2015. His batting average crept up after his rookie year, too, and his strikeout totals mostly went down. He’s a career .280 hitter and plays a very reputable third base.
Last season, unfortunately, was pretty much a lost cause for Bryant coming back from injury and likely not standing or swinging properly. His batting average dropped to the Mendoza territory while he managed to produce just 4 HRs and 11 RBIs over a 34 game span. Just as folks go overboard for a strong 60-game season as if it was a full season, there are others who get just as panicked over a brief interlude of injury-plagued ineffectiveness.
The big issue for many folks is the Francisco Lindor syndrome in that you would have to give up assets to acquire a $19.5 million salary player who is eligible for free agency at age 29 when the 2021 season ends.
The Jackie Bradley Approach
While everyone was all hot and heavy to land George Springer to patrol center field for the next few years before his defensive skills eroded, the Mets simply weren’t willing to go for the term required at the average annual rate demanded. Lots of folks applauded the Mets for being Wilpon-like in not overpaying for the big name free agent while others were harshly critical of the off-season progressing without an improvement made over the statistically worst center fielder in the National League returning to butcher fly balls for however many games the 2021 season includes.
So, with Springer off the table, who is next on the radar? To many folks that answer is Jackie Bradley, Jr. who is a better fielder than Springer who possesses 20 HR power and actually had a very nice 2020 season with a career best .283 batting average. Looking to cash in on this short term success, he doesn’t appear to be the third tier bargain many felt he would be and he’s likely seeking a salary for many years at about half of what Springer is getting. While $12.5 million per year or so is probably not unreasonable or unrealistic for JBJ to earn, is it the right answer?
If the real reason the Mets would approach him is for his defense, there are other fine glove men out there who might be significantly cheaper. If defense is all they’re seeking, that is a viable option, too. Other strong defenders like the Rays’ Kevin Kiermaier earns in that same range, and he has warranted nearly double the WAR rating over his similar length career. JBJ hits a little better and Kiermaier has been backsliding with his offense. However, Kiermaier is worth about $26 million for two years plus a buyout whereas JBJ would warrant about the same annual return but likely for four or more years.
The one inexpensive name that keeps coming up again and again is former Chicago Cub outfielder Albert Almora. He’s younger, he’s way cheaper and he’s a rock solid outfielder. At under $1.6 million last year before becoming a free agent, he’s not likely to get much of an increase. Of course, the Mets could turn to two-time Met Juan Lagares and accomplish the same. Neither are going to generate much with the bat but they will provide the left fielder and right fielder with ample coverage in the gaps.
The Trevor Bauer Approach
Saving $22 million by dispatching three unwanted pitchers goes a long way towards paying the apparently record setting salary demands of the current AL Cy Young Award winner. The difference between he and, for example, R.A. Dickey who the Mets once dispatched north of the border to bring back Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and now released Wuilmer Becerra in a 2012 trade.
Dickey was a Cy Young Award winner, too, but unlike Bauer, he was a veteran of three straight highly impressive seasons. Bauer is coming off one short stint in 2020 yet wants to be paid like that is typical of what he will provide. Oh yeah, people liked Dickey, too. The same can’t be said about Bauer.
So if you take all of your payroll savings to defray all but $10 million or so for Bauer’s 2021 salary, is that a good deal? To look at it one way, it’s not bad as the money saved is from pitchers not really in your current season plans. Then laying out $10 million extra for Bauer doesn’t seem quite as painful. If he’s the next Max Scherzer, that’s a great deal. If he’s the next Rick Porcello, then not so much.
The Right Approach
Spread the money around. Third base is still a problem. Center field is still a problem. One starting pitcher is still a problem. One more good relief pitcher is still a problem. The bench is still a problem. Tying up all your money in one player is never a good idea, particularly one who is as wildly inconsistent and potentially embarrassing as Bauer would be.
Put me down for the middle road where you spend to get several high quality people rather than overspending on just one to solve 20% of your roster problem.
"Tying up all your money in one player is never a good idea" - but it sure was in the case of Max Scherzer - and, so far, Jake deGrom.
ReplyDeleteBauer's intrigue is just how amazing his 2020 numbers actually were, which I touch on in an upcoming article. The question is whether baseball minds, having seen all the video, believe what they've seen is sustainable. Randy Johnson was a bit of a late bloomer, and then he turned into a perennial steamroller.
I want defense as much as anyone, but am leery of guys who seemed to have forgotten how to hit. Lagares is having a fine winter ball season - but how would that translate to the big leagues? .210? Actually, Baseball Reference says .234 for its projection, not bad, but he'll turn 32 and I just think he is one of those guys in irreversible age decline.
Almora would be betting on a comeback. Not much speed, but solid if he can hit. Marisnick could be a platoon against lefties and a defensive replacement, and struggle with bad defense but great hitting when righties start. Almora too. No reason that Marisnick or Almora cannot play 140-150 games but only start 50 of them.
I vote Marisnick over Almora as Almora's defense has also declined these past years.
ReplyDeleteI'd also rather keep Familia than dump his salary plus give up prospects just to get rid of him. I would think he would be motivated this year playing for a contract. If Betances is healthy, he is a keeper. If he is not healthy, no one will want him.
Agree with your bottom line but I think we have seen Sandy do this in the past - low cost guys like Chris Young and Chris Capuano that don't amount ti much.
If we can get Bauer for a Wheeler type deal than I am all in, if he wants $30 mill a year then I would pass. He has had 1 good year and shouldn’t get that high of a contract.
ReplyDeleteI would rather go Odorizzi for $15
Rosenthal for 6-7 mil
Almora for 1.5
And our old friend Asdrubal Cabrera for backup infield reserve.
And leave the rest of the money for the trade deadline.
Zozo, interesting alternate plan. I do discuss Bauer at 9:30.
ReplyDeleteJohn, if we sign players who don't amount to much, our playoff hopes in this wickedly tough division won't amount to much either.
Reese, I think I'll join you in the middle road. I still think they need more than one big piece
ReplyDeleteYea, I'm a middle of the road guy too, but the core issue is that the premise of the article is unrealistic. I cannot see any way to move Familia's contract without taking back a bigger one. There are no teams out there who are interested in a wild $11M relief pitcher. Brad Hand would not have cleared waivers nor taken so long to sign. Alex Colome is still unsigned. There is no market for Familia at all. There are really only a couple players that he might be traded for - Lorenzo Cain and possibly Kris Bryant. Both would take on more money than they get rid of. To me, there is no such thing as a new-found $17 or $20M to spend.
ReplyDelete