Jeremy Mand: 2021 Mets Fantasy Baseball Guide

The Baseball season is just around the corner and many fans are probably also participating in their annual baseball fantasy draft this week. 

For super fans, like myself, who enjoy playing fantasy baseball, and rooting for our favorite team and players to succeed, we have to be careful of letting our team biases from entering our fantasy baseball draft. 

There are a lot of different iterations of fantasy baseball, but for those unfamiliar, the gist of it is, is that the competitor acts like a virtual GM, with the opportunity to select any player in Major League Baseball to join their roster. Each competitor's team will select a finite number of real major league players and compete against one of their fellow league members, using the performance of the major leaguers as their basis for earning weekly wins or losses. 

The wins are based on real major league stats, which vary from league to league, but usually include common statistics such as Batting Average, Home Runs, RBIs, Runs Scored, and Stolen Bases for hitters; and Innings Pitched, Wins, Saves, ERA, and Strikeouts for Pitchers. 

You can also make trades with your competitors, sign free agent, make waiver claims, and bench players, just like a major league general manager or a manager would. 

But the kicker here is constraining of the active roster, and the constraining of players you can select. Generally a team will have 10-14 hitting slots open each game for players to contribute stats; this of course is predicated on players selected to fit into every positional category. 

You can't for example, select all offensive positions like 1st Base, Right Field, or DH to complete your roster; and you also need a certain number of Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers. So the nature of the game forces you to consider all different sorts of players to draft, and strategize how to use them. 

When it comes to drafting, it's not as if you are playing in a 30-team league where talent is spread equally, the league will have 10-12 competitors, and thus the pool of players will be smaller. There are 780 active players at any given time in the real world; in fantasy there may be only a 3rd of that. 

So, when you are drafting, you have ton consider where you are drafting, what position they play, how much playing time they will get, how injury prone they are, and their pure offensive profile or pure pitching profile.  Defense DOES NOT  matter in most leagues. You are not thinking about the total player,  and you're bias should be towards the stats that matter in your league.

So in this example, lets imagine where and when you should pick your favorite New York Met. In our fantasy scenario, lets imagine there are 12 competitors and 20 rounds, each competitor will need to fill the 9 hitting positions, 4 starting pitchers, 3 relievers, and 5 reserve players. So what rounds should you pick you favorite Mets in? Let's stick to the top 10 rounds and i'll guide you on where its appropriate to pick. 

Round 1 (Players Ranked 1-12): 

There are two Mets players worthy of choosing in the first round, Francisco Lindor and Jacob deGrom. 

If you're drafting earlier in the Round, deGrom has to be considered. He's fabulous as we know with consistent performance in categories such as WHIP, ERA and K's. The only issue with him has been Wins over the years. This year he will be on a very good offensive team, so in theory the Wins should be there and you should consider him.

As for Lindor, if you're considering him, you have to think bottom of round 1, and his value is based more on his positional value rather than his actual offensive value. He's a bit of a reach in round 1, and probably better to wait until round 2 or 3. 

Likely Players drafted in this range:  Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Shane Bieber, Freddie Freeman

Round 2-3 (Players Ranked 13-36): 

Lindor, if he makes it here is the obvious option. The two other Mets you could consider in this range is Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto. If you get 2019 Pete Alonso, its a no brainer as he is probably the 2nd best fantasy first baseman in baseball. He will put up a lot of Home Runs, RBIs, and Runs; his batting average will be OK, but he won't give you steals, but what first baseman really does? 

Lindor is Lindor obviously, and he would be great value in the 20-36 range. 

Likely Players drafted in this range:  Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Walker Buehler, Xander Bogaerts

Round 4-6 (Players Ranked 37-72):

As you get deeper into the draft, these are the rounds that will indicate how you really perform as players in this range are usually established, consistent, but might be on the edge of slipping into simply above average player rather than an All-Star. Remember, there are only about 60 players who earn an all-star bid every year, and its usually the top 30 that are perennial. So now we're looking at players that could have career years, or who can fall out. 

So which Mets should we consider: Michael Conforto has to stand out as being in the upper echelon of this range, and if he were healthy you could also argue for Carlos Carrasco at the bottom of round 5 or in Round 6. Sure there have been Mets that have been all-stars recently like McNeil, McCann, Stroman, Syndergaard, but none of them are as consistent at this point of time, and their are better alternatives in this range of players.

Dominic Smith is one player to also consider here, solely because his offense is that good, and this is fantasy and not real life. I am hesitant to draft Dom this early just because he has had only one really good season, and it was only 60 games. Plus with him likely being removed from games often in the 7th inning for defensive purposes, he might not get as many at-bats as you would think for a starter. 

 Likely Players drafted in this range:  George Springer, Gleyber Torres, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg

Round 7-10 (Players Ranked 73-108):

In this round, we start getting outside of the heart of most teams' lineups into the mid-to high end players. Teams' leadoff men, catchers of value, 5th or 6th hitters.  Good teams #2 or #3 starters are also considered. You would also consider elite closers around now. 

For the Mets, this is territory for Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz or Marcus Stroman. 

 Likely Players drafted in this range:  Max Muncey, Charlie Blackmon, Zack Wheeler, Aroldis Chapman, 

Other Mets to consider

So while I wouldn't pick any other Mets in the first 10 rounds, there are some sleepers in the starting rotation to look at in the later rounds. Particularly Noah Syndergaard who obviously has ace like potential, but he's a risk coming back from Tommy John Surgery. He's, in my opinion, a consideration for the 10th or 11th round and stashing him on the DL until mid-season. 

David Peterson to me is the player on the Mets with a real chance to shine. With our lineup, he can get a lot of wins, keep his ERA down, and hold a respectable WHIP. He may not get a lot of Ks, but he could be an effective mid-level starter. Finally Taijan Walker was once a top top prospect and was finally healthy for the first time in several years. He's worth taking a flyer on in later rounds and could prove to also be a dependable mid-level starter. 

The only other player to consider is J.D. Davis, who has a stellar bat as we know, but picking him will be dependent on how much playing time you expect him to get. I would consider him as a utility player