HOLD THE PRESSES!
WHO'S ON THE FRONT PAGE?
As spring training winds down, stats for Mets' pitchers keep building as the games roll on. The picture continues to be painted.
Thirty seven (37) guys, in fact, have pitched for the Mets so far through Saturday.
On the MLB pitchers' stats site, it lists 25 guys to a page.
Since you realize the Mets are likely to go north with just 13 pitchers, you truly hope (if you are one of the 37 pitchers) that you're on the front page (top 25 ERA guys) and not the 12 on the back page (high ERA guys).
The 25 guys on the front page?
Well, through Saturday, 13 of the 25 have an ERA of 0.00, and the 14th guy is a former two time Cy Young winner with a 0.66 ERA (would also be 0.00 if Endy Chavez had been in left field). So far, so great.
The 11 remaining guys on the front page have ERAs ranging from 1.08 (Jordan Yamamoto) to 4.50 (Jacob Barnes).
Of course, the 4.50 guy is much more likely to make the Mets' opening day roster than the 1.08 guy, and probably 8 of the guys with a 0.00 ERA won't make the team, either.
Those 8 were largely all long shots coming in, but let's acknowledge who several of them are right here: Harol Gonzalez, Trevor Hildenberger, Tylor Megill, Sam McWilliams, Sean Reid-Foley, Drew Smith, and Tom Szapucki.
Many compiled their 0.00 ERA in just a single outing. However, Trevor Hildenberger (already sent down) was exceptional, recording ALL SEVEN OF HIS OUTS by strikeout. I thought they'd be selling Hildenbergers and Fries at Mets' concession stands. Guess not.
On the second page, there are 12 struggling guys, who have, combined, allowed 48 runs on 61 hits in 43 innings. Ugh.
Two names of note on the back page include Rob Gsellman (5.63 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 8 IP, 4 K - I did not see him making this team, given all the solid competition), but some of the competition wilted Sunday, and word is he is safe and going on to the next round. It might be because he wisely didn't sing "Please Release Me" before the American Idol judges.
And the other name being Dellin Betances (9.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
Of the two, Betances has done better, aside from a terrible first outing, with just one not-good outing in his next 5 games. He also has to big contract and, unless he regresses in the final spring games, he'd seem to have a lock on a bullpen spot.
He said he will be ramping it up - let's see what that turns out to be. He has had solid breaking stuff, so a little more of the old FB would really help him. (And, on Sunday, another scoreless inning, so there, you Betances haters).
Of course, ERA is not a true deciding factor on who goes north and who doesn't.
But right now, here are the thirteen who I think are most likely heading north, in my humble opinion, and their ERAs thru Saturday:
Miguel Castro - 0.00 (gave up a HR Sunday, in an otherwise strong inning).
Edwin "Sugar" Diaz - 0.00 (but, perhaps a tad rusty, gave up 3 runs while (what else?) fanning 3 in an inning on Sunday).
Mike Montgomery - 0.00
- Interestingly, those 3 have fanned 21 in 14.1 IP.
- But Montgomery got hammered Sunday, winner of the Terrible Timing Award, so he's GONE. Just like that.
Jacob deGrom - 0.66 (can he go sub 1.00 in 2021?)
Jeurys Familia - 1.50 (plus 7 BB in 6 IP. Some folks talk a lot, others walk a lot. He walks the talk.)
Joey Lucchesi - 2.77 The Churve is cooking.
Aaron Loup - 3.00 - looking good.
Taijuan Walker - 3.00 - looking good.
Marcus Stroman - 3.44 - looking very competitive. Like it.
David Peterson - 3.50 - came to win a rotation spot. Did.
Trevor May - 3.86 - looking good.
Jacob Barnes - 4.50 - looked great Saturday.
Dellin Betances - 9.00 (but 3.60 excluding his first outing).
Barnes and Betances are not absolute locks, IMO, but I am voting both through. Each will most likely end up on the 26 man roster.
Alternates are Daniel Zamora - 0.00; Jerry Blevins - 3.18 (headed out to alternate site in Brooklyn - feeling great, though); and Stephen Tarpley - 5.68 (just re-assigned to work in AAA). The fact that all 3 are lefties is to their advantage during 2021.
A dark horse in this group WAS Arodys Viscaino, who had been dealing with arm soreness, but came back well on Sunday, and looked effective, hitting 98 MPH, but pitching briefly (just two outings, two innings) this spring. He could be headed to one of many teams desperately needing MLB caliber pitching if he can - ahem - elbow his way in.
What a ton of competition here. The remaining pitchers are still tough as a group. Much happier with how 2021's staff is shaping up than 2020's.
Last note:
For the guys likely heading north, those are (mostly) terrific ERAs.
I think it bodes very well for 2021, especially considering that 3 superior names with zero innings this spring that will be showing up in the next two months are Messrs. Lugo, Carrasco, and Syndergaard. Thor was last seen throwing 97. But we need to stay patient. So he doesn't become a patient again.
Wow, actually.
This staff could truly be FRONT PAGE STUFF.
Sunday evening, after drafting this, Messrs. Blevins, Eickhoff. and Vizcaino were dropped and Tarpley was sent to AAA.
Several more cuts, of course, are still to come, to get to the magic number of 26. All Roster-farians know 26 is THE numba, mon.
Of course, the now 14-5 Marlins beat the Mets up on Sunday, by an ugly score of 10-2, and they have the best spring ERA in all of baseball.
Maybe I have been taking the Marlins too lightly, and maybe you have, too.
I may have to reassess their ability to actually contend in the NL East. What do you think?
Gsellman has apparently has 9 lives...I'll be honest I don't think I've ever seen a Mets player get more rope for poor performance over this long a period of time without some sort of big financial incentive. He is closing in on 5 years of being ineffective now including this spring. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the FO to understand their reasoning of keeping him over other players.
ReplyDeleteDoes Vizcaino have an opt out of his minor league deal? It appears not, or he would have been jettisoned like Montgomery. These moves all buy the Mets time. The Viz can build up arm strength in Brooklyn and when the Mets need to make the first yo-yo of the bullpen, Gsellman has an option. Anyone of those other players would have to be added to the 40 man roster. Too, I think they want to be absolutely sure on Betances and not end up seeing him be useful on another team.
ReplyDeleteThe Montgomery release really surprised me, but then as you said ERA (or in his case, strikeout totals) are not the be all and end all of Spring Training.
ReplyDeleteThe Mets have plenty of pitching volume. The question is how effective it will be when the games start to count.
Montgomery's favorite old time actor is definitely not Montgomery Cliff, after he just went over one. Actually, his name was Clift, but that ruins the pun. When you are on the fringe, unless you are Gsellman, you gotta be good.
ReplyDeleteBetances after the first game has been effective. It's not all velocity - he has always had nasty breaking stuff. If he does get back towards 95...
I hope Vizcaino is kept around. His arm may not have as many innings left in it as Gsellman's, but they may be superior innings.
For Gsellman, it is all about options. When Carrasco, Lugo, and Thor are activated, someone will need to be sent down. Gsellman with options available, will be able to be sent to Syracuse with out losing a player. If Montgomery was the choice, he'd have to be placed on waivers.
ReplyDeleteJohn, good point. Gsellman has to know the days of poor performance have to end. If not, he can join Matt Harvey in Baltimore.
ReplyDeleteVizcaino, if healthy, is a very good pitcher.
ReplyDeleteHopefully he quickly establishes his health (believe he pitched a similuted inning yesterday, hitting 98 mph) and the Mets bring him into the fold. He's too talented to linger on the side fields for long. And if he is healthy, you want to seize the moment and maximize the benefit, because it likely won't last.
The only plan that makes sense to me is that they see Lucchesi as the #2 lefty out of the pen, long man, spot starter, and that he'll solve that problem once Carrasco returns.
HOWEVER . . . these April, May games count, too. I get that Sandy is loathe to non-tender players or release them; it goes against his grain. My hope is that the leash is reasonably short with Betances, Familia, Gsellman.
Trevor May has been underwhelming this Spring.
All in all, not a real impressive bullpen -- but I like a few of our options.
Jimmy
Jimmy, the leash on bullpen failing pitchers this year BETTER be short. It is what killed this team the past 3 years, more than anything else.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the BP was so bad in 2020. What killed the season was losing their #2 and #3 starters and getting a 9.00+ ERA from #4. Combined with ownership that had no money and a 60-game season, the shit was shot. No team could have survived it.
ReplyDeleteThis year there are options available. Instead of signing (relatively) proven relievers, Sandy opted to go with so-called depth. That's fine, I suppose, so long as he uses it. If Gsellman pitches the way he has pitched for the last 5 years, I'd hate to see it cost us ballgames.
In general, Sandy is patient, prudent, slow. Whereas fans are hasty, emotional, reactionary. That's the annual tension we all experience.
I hope that Sandy GMs with a great sense of urgency than he has in the past, when often it seems like he's sleepwalking through the season.
NOTE: It would be nice to see a post on Opening Day (or right before) where we can all post our Win-Loss Predictions for the season. I think I've settled on my number.
Jimmmy
Jimmy, that's true on the three-headed monster that was the Mets' staff in 2020, that combined to go 2-16.
ReplyDeleteI thin the Win Loss predictions post is a great idea. *;00 Thursday it is