Aidan Cooke - New York Mets at Chicago Cubs Series Preview

   

 The New York Mets will head to the north side of Chicago to play the Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Mets are atop the NL East with a 7-4 record and just took 2 of 3 from the Rockies at Coors Field. 

The Cubs, on the other hand, are sitting in the basement of the NL Central, coming off of a series loss to the Braves that dropped them to 6-9 on the year.

    The Mets were able to take the series in Colorado despite scoring just 8 runs across 3 games. The Cubs know a thing or two about offensive struggles, too. They entered their series against the Braves scoring fewer than 3 runs per game. They scored just 2 runs in game 1 and 4 runs in game 3 but exploded for 13 runs in game 2, mashing 6 homers in the process. 

Even with that game, they still rank last in batting average, 27th in OBP, 16th in SLG, 23rd in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+. Last season, the Cubs were 27th in batting average, 18th in OBP, 24th in SLG, 19th in wOBA, and 20th in wRC+. 

    The Cubs' lineup features some well-known names such as first baseman Anthony Rizzo, third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Javy Báez, catcher Willson Contreras, and right fielder Jason Heyward. Other than Heyward, all of them had disappointing seasons in 2020. Contreras and Rizzo were still above-average players, but both of them had consistently played at an All-Star level before last season. 

Rizzo has looked good at the dish, but it is Contreras who has been this team's best bat, leading all hitters on the team with at least 10 PAs in average, OBP, HRs, wOBA, and wRC+ while having the second-highest WAR, ISO, and SLG.

    Bryant struggled at the dish and in the field, having only a .644 OPS and 0.5 WAR in 34 games. He's bounced back nicely so far in 2021, already accumulating almost twice as much WAR (0.9) in just 14 games. Báez had the worst season of the bunch in 2020, hitting a paltry .203/.238/.360 with a 31.9 K% and a 3.0 BB% and a 57 wRC+. His poor strikeout and walk rates have continued into this season, as he has a 45 K% compared to just a 1.7 BB%. 

On the occasion that Báez does connect, he can send balls over the wall with ease. Jason Heyward had a bounce-back year, OPS'ing above .800 for the first time since 2012 and having just 0.2 fewer WAR than he did in 2019 despite playing about 1/3 as many games. Heyward's done little to silence the doubters, hitting below the Mendoza Line and producing a -0.2 WAR.

    Other than Heyward, the outfield is comprised of Joc Pederson in left and Ian Happ in center. Pederson was the biggest addition to the team this offseason, signing a 1 year/$4.5 million deal with a $2.5 million buyout or $10 million club option. Pederson had always had platoon issues, sporting a career .187/.263/.302 line and 56 wRC+ against southpaws. After a scorching-hot spring, he has cooled down considerably during the regular season and has a single and 5 strikeouts in 13 ABs against lefties. 

    Happ is only now entering his physical prime, turning 27 in August. He came up to the bigs in 2017 and put together two solid seasons before taking his play to the next level in 2019 and 2020. He only played 115 games in that span but hit .260/.350/.530 with a 130 wRC+ and 3.4 WAR. Happ even finished 18th in NL MVP voting in 2020. Both Pederson and Happ have gotten off to slow starts, but either one of them is capable of putting up a big night.

    One factor that could play to the favor or detriment of the lineups is the weather. Chicago isn't known as "the Windy City" for nothing, and Wrigley Field can act as a wind turbine at times, with the gusts of wind either smothering balls in the outfield or carrying them over the walls. Another thing to note about the weather: it is predicted to snow for the series opener, inviting the possibility of yet another double header for the Mets.

    On the pitching side of things, Taijuan Walker and Jake Arrieta will face off in game 1. Walker has given the Mets plenty to dream on so far, starting a pair of games and allowing 3 runs through 10.1 innings to give him a 2.61 ERA, 10.45 K/9, and 1.16 WHIP. Walker has allowed 5 walks in 10.1 innings, but he's offset that with 12 strikeouts. Taijuan had never struck out more than a batter an inning (outside of 2019, when he only threw one inning) but his increase in punchouts could be sustainable thanks to his uptick in velocity. He's added at least 2 MPH to his fastball, slider, and curveball and more than a MPH to both of his other pitches.

    Arrieta has had a history with the Mets, pitching for the Phillies from 2017-19 and getting into some controversy by hitting batters. Arrieta faced the Mets 9 times with Philadelphia, pitching to a 3.76 ERA. He re-upped with the Cubs on a 1-year deal and has made 3 starts, going 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA, 7.41 K/9, and 1.29 WHIP. 

His peripherals have not been pretty and he's faced the offensively inept Pirates (twice) and Brewers. Even facing those poor offenses, Arrieta has allowed a lot of hard-hit balls. Seven Mets on the current MLB roster have faced Arrieta (McNeil, Pillar, Villar, Conforto, Smith, Alonso, and Nimmo) and all but Alonso have an OPS of at least .885. Hopefully, these guys can continue to hit off of Arrieta and scrape up enough runs to beat out the Cubs' struggling offense.

    Game 2 will feature David Peterson and Zach Davies. Peterson has delivered a Jekyll and Hyde season so far, struggling against the Phillies in his first start but then dominating the same Phillies in his second start, going 6 innings and allowing 3 hits, a run, and no walks while punching out 10. 

Like Arrieta, Peterson has given up a lot of hard-hit balls, but he's been able to dodge around them thanks to a combination of high strikeout numbers (13.5 K/9), low walk rates (1.8 BB/9), and a bit of luck. If he continues to allow a lot of hard contact, though, Wrigley's windy ballpark may not be as forgiving as Citi Field. 

    Zach Davies came over to the Cubs in the Yu Darvish deal and has struggled thus far, pitching to a 10.32 ERA in 11.1 innings. Davies was known mainly as a groundball pitcher when he first came up but has allowed a lot more flyballs recently. Last season, hitters slugged .450 on fly balls against Davies but had an expected SLG% of .722. 

This could be especially problematic in Chicago. He saw an uncharacteristic uptick in strikeouts in 2020 despite low velocity and middling movement on his pitches. With all of this in mind, Davies should be due for regression after a 2.73 ERA in 2020, and the Mets could break out offensively.

    Jacob deGrom and Trevor Williams will be facing off in the final game. There's not much to be said about deGrom's season that hasn't been said already. He's continued to baffle hitters at the dish, with an 0.45 ERA, 35 Ks, 0.70 WHIP, and .159 opponent average in 20 innings. 

As he gets into his 30s, deGrom's fastball velocity has only gone up, which isn't completely surprising considering he started pitching after he was drafted. In his most recent start, all Jake did was punch out 14 batters (9 of them in a row) in 6 innings scoreless innings, earning a win for his team. The only concern heading into this matchup would be his middling barrel rate and exit velocities, which might not play well against a Cubs lineup that is tied for third in baseball in home runs.

    Trevor Williams will have the unenviable task of opposing deGrom. Williams has pitched to a 5.02 ERA so far but had a blowup start against the Pirates, allowing 5 earned runs in 3.1 frames. Outside of that game, he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Williams has had good results in his career but struggled in 2019 and 2020. The Cubs looked to fix his issues by making him raise his sinker usage, and so far it has paid off for him. Hitters have a .223 wOBA against his sinker on the young season. 

Williams has also altered the location of his four-seamer, now primarily throwing it up in the zone, and it too has had much better results. He has had tough luck this year, with middling exit velocity and above-average hard hit and barrel rates, but hitters currently sport a .364 BABIP against him. Williams could put together a solid start against the Mets. Not to mention, Jacob deGrom is starting and the Mets never seem to be able to find him some run support.

    It should be an interesting series in Chicago, but ultimately the Mets are the favorites here on paper. The Cubs' offense has been struggling for some time, but some of their names definitely scare me. Their core position players are bouncing back from a rough 2020 and so has closer Craig Kimbrel. 

Kris Bryant is definitely someone to keep an eye on since he might be playing against a potential trade deadline suitor. The Mets certainly aren't facing any aces in this series, so hopefully the offense can get it going with more consistent playing time. Ultimately, I'll predict the Mets take 2/3 in another series win.