New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Series Preview

    The New York Mets continue their homestand with what was supposed to be a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves, but Friday's contest has already been rained out. The game will be made up at a later date, hopefully when more players are back from the IL. The Mets lost the opening game of their last series against the Rockies but scraped across three consecutive wins against them to win the four-game set 3-1, lifting their record to 24-20 and strengthening their division lead. The Braves are well-rested after an off-day last night. Since dropping their series to the Mets, Atlanta has gone 4-2, taking 3 of 4 against the Pirates and splitting a pair at Fenway Park. They currently sit at 24-25, tied with the Phillies in the division standings and 2.5 back of the Mets.

    The Braves' recent uptick in play is partially due to playing the Pirates, who were deemed MLB's worst team entering 2021. Their offense has also been red-hot, averaging 7.5 runs/game since scoring only 9 in 3 games against the Mets. They had a 20-run outburst against the Pirates but even disregarding that game they have averaged 5 runs/game. Their lineup did take a big hit on Tuesday night, though, when outfielder Marcell Ozuna dislocated two fingers sliding into a base. He'll be out for six weeks, according to Ozuna himself. He was having a poor season but he finished 6th in NL MVP voting in 2020, and the fact that he was primarily a DH makes the feat even more impressive. The Braves have also been without fellow outfielder Cristian Pache, and pitchers Mike Soroka and Huascar Ynoa will be down for some time.

    Filling in for them will be Guillermo Heredia and Ender Inciarte. Heredia came up to the majors in 2016 and has never been a real threat at the plate, with a wRC+ of 84 from 2016-20. Last year, he had a cup of coffee with the Mets, hitting .235/.278/.588 in 7 games and 18 ABs. This season, Heredia's hitting .288/.373/.507 with a 136 wRC+ in 22 games. Inciarte has continued to be a poor player for Atlanta, as he owns a measly .579 OPS this year. Since 2019, Inciarte has played 130 games and hit .227/.313/.336 and has a very poor 73 wRC+. 

    At least star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. has continued to be an elite player. At just 23 years old, Acuña has solidified his spot as one of the game's premier talents, leading all Braves players in WAR (2.3), wRC+ (164), wOBA (.413), SLG (.612), and OPS (.993). In fact, he could get even better this year, with an expected wOBA of .441, which is second in MLB. 

    The only player that can challenge Acuña for the title of "hottest Braves hitter" is 3B Austin Riley. Riley was hitting well entering the last Mets-Braves series but has kicked it into second gear as of late. In 6 games against the Pirates and Red Sox, Riley hit .391/.400/1.130 (yes, that last number is his SLG, and no, it isn't a typo) with 5 HR, tied for tops in baseball, and 10 RBI, tied for third. Overall this season, he has hit .311/.407/.550, ranking first on the Braves in OBP and second in WAR, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+, and third in HR and RBI.

    Shortstop Dansby Swanson also had himself a week when he hit .435/.458/1.000. He and Riley joined Reds OF Jessie Winker and Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr as the only players to slug at least 1.000 over the last 7 days. Swanson has still disappointed this year and over his entire career after being named one of the game's best prospects. In 2021 he has hit .238/.293/.442 with a 97 wRC+. It's still early on in the season, and his recent play may be a precursor to a turnaround for Swanson. 

    Fellow middle infielder Ozzie Albies has been a much more solid presence this year and throughout his whole career, owning a career .802 OPS and 12 WAR in 703 career games. In 2021, his average and OBP have both been low but Albies has kept his SLG at a good .489 number to remain a productive hitter. 

    First baseman Freddie Freeman has established himself as one of, if not the, best first basemen of the last half-decade, owning a career .890 OPS and 138 wRC+ with solid defense at first base. Freeman is coming off of an MVP year in 2020 when he had a 1.102 OPS and .187 wRC+. Obviously, nobody expected him to repeat those numbers over a full season, but Freeman hasn't played up to his normal standards. Freddie looks like he is underperforming, with a wOBA of .358 but an xwOBA of .413, 12th out of 308 qualified hitters. 

    Behind the plate, young catcher William Contreras has gotten the majority of the starts after Travis d'Arnaud's early-season injury that could keep him out for the rest of the year.  Contreras is only 23 years old but is one of the top prospects in an impressive system. Additionally, he's impressed at the major-league level despite his young age, with a .886 OPS (in only 80 PAs). In 2021, he has hit .237/.343/.542, good for a 138 wRC+. Contreras has had a high 31.4 K% but has balanced it out with an 11.4 BB%. His framing hasn't graded out to be anything special, but Contreras's bat makes him a valuable part of the everyday lineup. He has less than a month's worth of playing time, but if Contreras can sustain anything close to his offensive output, he should be one of the Braves' better players for some time.

    This is the first series in a while that both teams had clear-cut probable starters for all three games, but now with the opener being postponed, the Mets' game 2 starter is not yet confirmed. The Braves are pushing back their starters by a game. Today's game is set to feature Taijuan Walker and Ian Anderson. Walker will be making his first start in over two weeks, last pitching against the Braves on 5/17. In that start, he threw 3 innings, allowing only one hit and no walks (a good sign since he has 3.68 BB/9 this season). He has pitched to a 2.05 ERA through 44 innings, continuing to defy the peripherals that don't like his high walk rate, low strikeouts, and hard contact. 

    His opponent will be rookie Ian Anderson. Anderson came up in late August last year and made 6 starts, tossing 26.1 innings with a 2.05 ERA (6 earned runs) with 12 walks and 35 strikeouts. His worst start came against the Mets when he permitted 3 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in 4.2 innings. He also had 4 starts in the playoffs, including a pair against the feared Dodgers in which he allowed a combined  7 walks and 6 hits but only 2 earned runs. In 2021, Anderson owns a sparkling 2.85 ERA but he has been striking out fewer batters and allowing harder contact, all while his walks remain high. 

    Max Fried will take the mound on Sunday instead of Charlie Morton, who has had two great starts in a row after an uneven start to the season.