Tom Brennan wrote a good piece in praise of Tylor Megill yesterday morning which got me to thinking about one of the fundamental changes that needs to take place in the Mets organization. To set up the premise, let me bring you back to 1983.
Back then the Mets were a rather pedestrian ballclub and did not have much in the way of talent to compete for a pennant. The combined leadership of George Bamberger and Frank Howard led them to a last place 68-94 finish in the NL East.
On the hitting side of the ledger they had sputtering George Foster, a tall kid in right field named Darryl Strawberry, Mookie Wilson, Hubie Brooks and the late season addition of Keith Hernandez. The rest of the squad was highly forgettable. Still, that offense is better than their pitching was.
It was no wonder then that they took a look at an A-Ball pitcher who had finished the season at age 18 going 19-4 with a 2.50 ERA, just 121 hits allowed in 191 innings pitched and notching 14.1 Ks per every 9 IP. Yes, that man was Doc Gooden and he was propelled into the majors the very next season at age 19 from Lynchburg. He logged not a single inning in AA nor AAA.
Was he overwhelmed? It sure didn’t seem like it. His rookie season in 1984 included a 17-9 record, a 2.60 ERA and dramatically better control. He was making batters look silly and for his efforts he was awarded the National League Rookie of the Year honors, made the All Star team and finished 2nd in the Cy Young Award voting.
Now, not all early risers make that kind of spectacular debut. During the 2010 season there was a hard throwing raw rookie reliever who combined for four teams to go 2-0 with a 1.49 ERA. Unfortunately, when manager Jerry Manuel pushed for the young Jenrry Mejia to start the season in the majors, he was not nearly as effective. He was 0-4 with a 4.62 ERA, walking nearly as many as he struck out. Of course, all of this pitching (both good and bad) came before his PED abuse citations came to light.
The reason I cite these examples brings me back to Mr. Megill who will turn 26 during his rookie season. It seems the Mets are very much inclined to allow their prospects to wallow in the minors for a very long time before giving them a chance at the major league level. The only exception seems to be when injuries force their hand and propel someone up the ladder ahead of schedule. Many can remember in 2015 on their way to the World Series when an unheard of 22-year-old AA outfielder named Michael Conforto made the majors for just that reason. Of course, after a successful debut he was returned to AAA during 2016.
Other NY Mets whose debuts seemed to take forever included Jeff McNeil, Jacob deGrom and a bevy of others. When you look to the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres and other teams, it seems when they have someone performing in the minors, they don’t bury that person there in order to allow him to get seasoning. They bring him up to the majors to see if he’s as good as he seems.
With new ownership you would think this philosophy might change a bit, but Sandy Alderson is still kicking around in the front office so it’s entirely possible there won’t be a wholesale overhaul in the approach until someone else is in charge. For now I’m grateful to see what Megill and others have done this year even if their promotion was due not as much to merit but out of necessity because of injuries.
Maybe looking at the other side, the Mets really have not had anyone of Doc's promise since then.
ReplyDeleteJake had average minor league stats and never showed superstar until he got here. Would he have done that had he come up four years earlier. I say probably not.
I think Matt Allan might have been on a faster track had he not been injured. It is also unfortunate that Crow-Armstrong did not stay healthy for his first year.
And like John mentioned in another post, perhaps we'll see some movement with Baty, Alvarez, Vientos, Peroza, and possible a couple others after the all-star break(s).
The other point to make is that these prospects are getting very expensive and they need to be careful in their development.
Ah, to have a prospect like Acuna or Soto in the system that could fly thru.
Another point: Khalil Lee is a great example of a top 10 prospect that was fast tracked to the majors and exposed very quickly. There are many more of this story than the guy who jumps and succeeds.
ReplyDeleteIt has always bothered me how slow the Mets move their minor league players, especially the college juniors that they start off at the FCL (old GCL) level, already in their 20s.
ReplyDeleteI have felt over the years that the reason Alderson slow tracks his prospects is to control their peak years. See, a team has 7 years of control and if you bring a player up too quickly, like Harper or Lindor or Tatis, they can become a free agent by year 27, which is early in the peak curve. If you drag it out some, then you can keep them until about 29 or 30 years old, and the loss isn’t as great.
ReplyDeleteI’m pretty sure the years of control are going to go down in the new agreement, I’m expecting two years less with arbitration starting year after the second year.
So what you're saying is that Alderson is putting the financial interest of the ballclub ahead of winning...all the more reason for him to hit the road at the end of this season.
ReplyDeleteReese you are preaching to the choir…
ReplyDeleteI have long said that we should push these guys…. They are all athletes who were the best from where they come from… if they fail and they get demoted maybe they were never gonna make it anyway…. It’s not as if this is a contact sport…
The cream rises…
If you are special you make it by 20
You’re avg age to get your shit in my eyes are 22…
Anything older and to me you took as long as possible…
Wright should have been up a year earlier
Kalid Lee didn’t look ready
But when they are hot and full of confidence give them a. Shot
I would push baty and Vientos
And Alvarez to double Aa
Honestly our red prospect should never touch AWA in my eyes
AA and then to majors if they are dominating
Arod Griffey shoot even Soto did it at 19/20… although Soto only got his shot because Victor Robles got hurt and they needed a OF that season
Eddie, in my 10:30 article today, I give you another reason to push Baty, Mauricio and, yes, Luke Ritter, to AA right after the ASB.
ReplyDeleteI myself was happy Megill was called up, but I hoped he would get another 3 or 4 starts in AAA. Turns out he didn't need them.
Vientos may not get called up this year to the Mets, due to crowded conditions and the stupid years of control thing. He might be ready by Sept - and could well be ready in 2022.
There's no comparison between a very good prospect and a superstar prospect. It's a question of both evaluation of the talent (mentally as well as physically) and the needs of the ML club. Would Doc have been jumped to the majors if the big club had a rotation of Seaver, Koosman, Matlack, Gentry and Ryan? I doubt it.
ReplyDeleteSome players flourish with the challenge of better competition, others get crushed by it.
Daniel Murphy was rushed from AA and succeeded, while Evans (I forget his first name) came up at the same time and fizzled out.
Teams well out of the running move their veterans to get prospects, and promote from within to replace them. When the Mets needed a SP last year, they jumped David Peterson to Flushing, and he thrived, but struggled early this season.
I tend to look at the term "farm system" pretty literally. On a farm, crops are raised. Some are consumed by the farmer's family; some are sold to raise money for seeds, saplings, and supplies ; and some are discarded.
A skilled farmer knows when the crops are ripe and ready to eat; he picks others earlier so they will ripen at the market. And he knows the timing for those things.
The Mets over the years have had many "farmers", from Cashen to Alderson, and each brought his own attitude and judgment. To say "the Mets have always..." implies that all the GMs were the same. Not so.
I agree wholeheartedly with the narrative of your post but Gooden actually pitched 29 innings at AAA Tidewater in their postseason in 1983 to help them win an International League title as well as the AAA “Little World Series” with Davey Johnson as manager.
ReplyDeleteI only recall because I was there as a kid to see some of it (And a Fangraphs article to look up the # of IP) and it left quite an impression on me. It’s a shame that minor league baseball has gone through some downsizing because AAA baseball is a great value with an up-close look at some future stars.
Ben
Two young pitchers are why.
ReplyDeleteTaijuan Walker and Tyler Megill.
Besides Jake deGrom, these two young starters are responsible for this ball club being where they are at current from a starting pitcher standpoint. These two younger starters have a very bright and long future ahead of them here. Sky is their only limitation, and they will define it.
Moves to ponder.
Although every MLB team will be interested in him, I think Kyle Gibson would be a very well worth effort for here in a trade before the trading deadline. From a short distance, he reminds me some of Jake the way he looks and pitches, his assortment of pitches he has and even his mound presence. He's 6-0 on Texas.
Texas has almost no one else in their five man and their AAA affiliate only has starter Bowden Francis (age 25, 6'5") of any true notoriety. He's 7-3 there, with a 3.62 ERA, 65 strikeouts in 59 innings with a 1.02 WHIP. He'd ne good for here, but is Texas that foolish I do not know.
But the Mets could really use a really decent AAA starter more.
Someone who can join Syracuse and get started right away there, if for no other reason than to spare the remaining fans in Syracuse from requesting assisted suicide for having watched that mess for this long.
I'd even gamble on a Boston's Darwinzon Hernandez or Raynel Espinal type starter or a Devi Garcias or Trevor Lane from the Yankees. Something.
The Mets appear to have ample players on their MLB roster that they could conceivably use in trades for pitching depth. The Mets bench support has been really way above expectation overall. Some of their bench guys have stood out and could man starting roles here or on other MLB teams easily, in my opinion.
The Yankees have a mediocre team right now because of their starting pitching. An acquisition for say Scherzer and even one more veteran starter of some prominence, may be necessary to rejoin baseball humanity (so to speak) and the AL Eastern Race.
To my eyes, Tyler MeGill has extraordinary new MLB pitcher capabilities.
ReplyDeleteHis mechanics, smoothness, non-ruffled feather-ability, his disposition and mound presence make him scream endurance and success in MLB.
Seaver, Gooden, deGrom, we need one more.
Who am I watching right now?
I was watching Corey Oswalt and Drew Smith, but Corey went down with a knee issue of recent. he was doing well I felt. But Drew Smith is very quietly putting up good innings I have noticed as well. Drew would be my sixth man starter right now, maybe target 5 innings to start.
Just always liked Drew's mechanics and pitch arsenal. He may be coming of age like a fine wine does before our eyes. I stick with Drew and Corey once well. Let them right their story here.
Robert Stock I am not so sure on yet, and I didn't like (at all) the Thomas Szapucki promotion here of recent. I understand the trying to "Catch Lightning in a Bottle Thing" but to me it was unwise and Thomas is nowhere near back to his old self at AAA Syracuse. So why risk it with him here.
Let him get whole again there. Have success and gain confidence there first. Let him dictate when he feels ready again. I think Thomas Szapucki could still be a major good NY Mets starter, if he is handled correctly in this way.
The Mets must learn never to hand wins away to other opponents. That every win is important and just because your are riding a wave in first place this should never change. Every game, every pitch and every at bat matters.
You build a winning team in this way. Management does not play the games, players do. They want to win. Period. Remember this.
Ben, seeing Doc in the AAA playoffs reminds me of the thrill I had when I first saw young Dr J. Enjoy those great rarities immensely. They are rare.
ReplyDeleteBill, nice perspective.
ReplyDelete