Aidan Cooke - What the Mets May See in Newly-Acquired Pitcher Trevor Williams

(Photo Credit - Syracuse Mets, James Farrance).

    With just over an hour to go before Friday's trade deadline, the Mets swung a deal with the Chicago Cubs, picking up SS Javier Baez and RHP Trevor Williams.

    Williams, currently 29 years old, was DFA'd by the Pirates after a rough 2020 season which saw him put up a 6.18 ERA and -0.4 fWAR over 55.1 innings. The Cubs picked him up on a 1 year/$2.5 million deal, and Williams secured his spot in the starting rotation with an impressive spring. So far in 2021, he owns a poor 5.06 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 58.2 innings. So why would the Mets want Williams?

    The Mets prioritized an analytic way of thinking in the offseason, and it's apparent that they were buying into Williams' peripherals more than his actual performance. While his 4.52 FIP is nothing to be excited about, Trevor's 4.01 xFIP is considered to be about average to slightly above average. His xFIP- sits at 95, with 100 being average and a lower number being better (for example, Marcus Stroman's xFIP- sits at a solid 85). In terms of xFIP, Williams is actually having the best year of his career. 

    Looking at his arsenal, Williams possesses some interesting pitches but some serious issues. His changeup, which he uses about 10% of the time, has practically been batting practice this year, with opposing hitters batting .375 and slugging .792 on it. 

    

    His sinker has been hit hard as well, with a .457 wOBA against. 

    Batters have beaten up on Williams' curveball, hitting .320 with a .560 SLG and .383 wOBA, but there may be more to that pitch than it seems. The wOBA may be high, but the xwOBA is a very low .243. This would fall in line with the team's analytical approach, and perhaps pitching coach Jeremy Hefner can find a way to stabilize the absurd difference in outcomes vs expected outcomes. 

    Williams' slider, which averages at around 82.7 MPH, has easily been his best pitch. This year, opposing hitters are batting just .174 against it with a measly .261 SLG and 20 strikeouts. Better yet, batters have a very low .213 wOBA and a very high 41.3% swing and miss rate when facing Williams' slider. Only about 20% of Williams' pitches thrown are sliders, so increasing its usage should be beneficial. If he overuses it, however, that could prove to be detrimental, especially since he only throws it in the strike zone 23% of the time. He needs hitters to be fooled enough to chase the slider out of the zone, and if more and more of his pitches are sliders, then hitters will surely pick up on it and take their walks. 

    Additionally, the fact that Williams has minor league options remaining is a huge help to this team. With all of the past and present injuries to this team, having someone who is capable of making a quality spot start raises the floor of the entire ball club, especially with Jordan Yamamoto and Robert Stock on the 60-day IL and Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson done for the year. 

    All in all, Williams isn't a game-changer right now, but he has the tools to succeed as a member of the starting 5 (maybe not with the Mets, though). It will be interesting to see how the Mets deploy him; Williams' two plus pitches (slider and curveball) and experience in the bullpen could make him a candidate for long relief. Even if he can provide a middling start or two, Trevor Williams will have had a positive impact on a team hoping to embark on a championship run.