Tom Brennan - METS PROSPECTS FOR AN RBI-STARVED TEAM

I pointed out in an article the other day that after Alonso and Smith, who have collectively been solid, but not great, in RBIs, the next 10 offensive guys, per 500 plate appearances, were averaging a sparse 54 RBIs.

You don't score, you don't win.  Not enough to be a real winner, anyway.  You hit like that, you understand why the team is next to last in runs scored.

So, who are the sluggers to watch in the minors?  I am thinking RBIs and HRs.  And the speedsters? Who will produce RUNS?

(Stats thru Friday)

JOSE PEROZA - I thought I would start with the forgotten  (by everyone seemingly but me) prospect, Mr. Under-the-Radar.  Why?  It's my article, that's why.  But he also deserves it.

Jose is 6 months younger than Bret Baty, a good glove at 3rd and 2nd, but the bat?  We're talking producing runs here, so what about the bat?  OK, 47 RBIs in 62 games for St Lucie. Over 150 games, that is about a 115 RBIs.  He has a Nimmo-like .414 OBP due to 40 walks, too, or guess what?  He'd probably have even more RBIs.  And he briefly slumped to .243, but a torrid July has him up in the mid .280s.  

Ask for the Radar System Upgrade so you can track this guy.

(Peroza, by the way, had a short stint in Brooklyn rookie ball in 2019, and hit poorly in that unforgiving park, but well everywhere else).

MARK VIENTOS - on an absolute HR tear, with 17 in a stretch of 34 games, the kind of thing you used to hear a guy like Sammy Sosa did, but his performance was "enhanced."

20 HRs, 13 doubles, 51 RBIs in 59 games, and a .596 slugging %, despite a slow first 5 weeks?  Wow. 

He has fanned 72 times, which is a lot, but he also jumped a league to AA this year.  Basically, a K per game since the start of June.  Still just 21 and 7 months old.  

At that age, Pete Alonso was just making his Syracuse debut.  Think about that, don't rush past.  Vientos, same age, demolishing AA.  And Vientos is listed at 6'4", 185, but that is an old weight - he is no doubt 200 + now.

Me?   I'm strongly thinking where he might fit in the Mets line up in 2022.

CARLOS CORTES - Vientos' teammate has had a quiescent July (.181), so maybe his earlier performance was an over-achievement - or maybe he just slumped in July.  The 83rd overall pick in the 2018 draft, despite being just 5'7", has 36 extra base hits in 64 games and 47 RBIs (51 RBIs thru Sunday, and 13 bombs) and .257, but the RBI number particularly impressive since he has often played lead off.  

Doing only the outfield this year (previously 2B) - the good news? 53 OF games, 1 error.  The switch hitter has not hit well vs. lefties, but has tattooed righties.  Worth keeping a close eye on.  A hot last two months, and maybe he can replace Conforto in 2022.  

(Conforto to his credit broke out yesterday…he walked. .167 since early May.  Boras is off his Kumar if he thinks the Mets will sign Mr. .167.)

BRET BATY - he was terrific in Brooklyn, but struggling so far in AA.  Needs more time, seemingly well behind Vientos.  The two, if you are interested, were born just a month apart.  8 HRs, 41 RBIs in 64 games with 71 Ks.  Eight HRs, no doubt suppressed by playing in Brooklyn for most of the season.  Yep, I looked - well over 100 points lower at home in Brooklyn and 180 points lower in slug %, oh, that dastardly park.

He is 6 months older than that kid Peroza, who needs to be promoted ASAP to Brooklyn.  Or skip Peroza right to AA next year.  Avoid the Brooklyn torture chamber altogether.

Baty looks more and more like a 2023 guy.  A very good one.  He has gotten 9 games in the OF, which I like - 3B being his primary, but adding versatility is smart.

RONNY MAURICIO - despite the lost 2020, he is still just 20 and won't turn 21 until next season's opening day.  Still in Brooklyn, he has started to hit in the bad-hitting Mecca in Brooklyn.  We heard he would add power - he has - 14 HRs and 27 total XBH in 67 games, with 42 RBIs.  

He has filled out a lot, and if you've missed clips of him hitting homers, they ain't cheap.  Hitting .251, but .300 on the friendly road, vs. .197 at the unfriendly home.  A .621 slug % on the hostile road vs. a .297 slug % in his home-confinement park.   My guess is he will be a big hitting star for the Mets by 2023.

JAYLEN PALMER - a raw speedster 18 year old pre-pandemic, he has stepped up his game in St Lucie a lot this July, and has 51 runs scored and 23 steals in 65 games. Strikeout rate is being reduced.   Just turned 21 this past Saturday.  Candles for you, Jaylen.  Being he is 6'4", 210, power will no doubt ramp up.  He has played 2nd, 3rd, and CF this year, the latter with no errors in 16 games.  I am hoping he is a future...I dunno…Tommie Agee.  Arriving in 2023 also.

FRANCISCO ALVAREZ - the young wunderkind catcher was thankfully not traded. Now at Brooklyn,  he has 41 runs and 41 RBIs, plus .275/.402/.587 this year.   His stats are also severely impacted by dumb-ass Brooklyn - sorry, I had to say it.  

He was a lusty 8 for 17 at home in St Lucie before his promotion to Brooklyn,  At hell - err, Mean home - in Brooklyn, he is 14 for 76 (sub .200).   I sense Babe Ruth would have struggled in Brooklyn.  So I say, peel away the at-home-in-Brooklyn numbers, and Franky has done sensationally in 2021.  

Why not a Mets catcher in 2023?  I see no reason why not, even though he only turns 20 by around Thanksgiving.  It would likely have been 2022, were it not for COVID cancelling 2020.  But 2022 at some point? Maybe.

I have to add this to see if Mack is still reading this: 

Danny Muno debuted in Brooklyn in 2011, and somehow, in 32 games there, he hit .351 in the penultimate pitchers’ park.  Go figure.  On the other hand, Ike Davis, who once hit 32 HRs for the Mets, not surprisingly had no HRs and 5 RBIs in his Brooklyn debut season at home.

(Oddly there was another BB guy named Ike Davis who played in the majors between 1919 and 1925 and compiled 732 plate appearances.  To my knowledge, he never played in Brooklyn, although he may have gone on the rides there at some point.)  To my knowledge, the two have never met.

Special Mentions:

Khalil Lee has a .443 OBP in AAA this year, Eye-catching.  Oddly, he is just 3 of 10 in steals, after 53 of 65 in 2019.  Take off the cement shoes, Khalil.  He feels a lot like Matt den Dekker to me - I hope he has a higher ceiling.

Alex Ramirez - ARez is 18 and fanned a lot in Low A, but it is impressive he is at that level at all.  .249, with a .323 OBP - and hit a bomb over the weekend. I think we will see a truly dynamic prospect in him within 2 years, and possibly their top prospect by then.

Luke Ritter - currently injured - man, do I hate it when guys miss time due to injuries.  The 24 year old IF was hitting just .241 for Brooklyn, but how did he hit on the hostile road with friendlier-than=Brooklyn fences? 

Great.  How about 10 HRs in 101 ABs, 31 RBIs in 27 games, and a .624 slug %.  I want to see more of Ritter, In AA.  Get well soon.

To close, let me (as Jen Psaki suggested) circle back to Brooklyn.

Cyclones hitters on the usually hostile road in 2021?

.240/.321/.430

Cyclones hitters at Grand Canyon home in 2021?

.218/.297/.336

The Brooklyn slash gap has narrowed over the past month or so - but it is real.  Four of the above guys above have played in Brooklyn this year, and found their stats to be mightily suppressed there.  Adjust their numbers in your minds accordingly.