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1/18/22

Player Profile: Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez - 2021 Bowman Chrome

Francisco Alvarez

Background, Stats, Videos.

Background:

Catcher, Bats Right, Throws Right, DOB 11/19/2001, 5'10", 233, Guatire, Venezuela. Signed by the New York Mets as an International free agent for $2.9 million on July 2, 2018.  Eligible for the December 2022 Rule 5 draft.

Last year, everyone either had Francisco as there #1 or #2 prospect.  This year, I think everyone has him as their #1.

Mets.com has Francisco as the #1 Mets prospect and the #10 Prospect in all of MLB.  Baseball America has him as the #13 overall prospect.

Last year, Tom had him at #2.  Now, Tom has him at #1: That's not a bat in his hands, that's a rocket launcher...I think his career ceiling is...Mike Piazza.  Anyone disagree? 24 HRs and 70 RBIs in a little over 300 at bats in 2021, when your home park is the pitchers’ paradise (and hitters' torture chamber) in Brooklyn?  Sky is the limit for Francisco."  

Sam Dykstra MiLB.com: "Pipeline Hitter of the Year - One thing that stood out to me about Álvarez last year, he had 22 homers at High-A in only 84 games. But he slugged significantly better away from High-A Brooklyn, which is an extreme pitchers' park. He slugged .607 there compared to .463 at home, an OPS above 1.000 there, his OPS at home was .763. Get him to Binghamton, get him to Syracuse, some of these fairer parks for hitters. I think Álvarez, on top of just another year of maturity, could really explode. I could easily see him hitting 25, 30 homers and having an OPS in that .900-1.000 range."

SNY.TV: had him at #1 saying: "He still needs work on his receiving and blocking skills, but the expectation is he will stick behind the plate long term with a strong throwing arm. He has legit All-Star potential".

Last year I got the chance to talk to two people who saw Francisco play the most - Cyclones Manager Ed Blankmeyer and Cyclones Announcer Keith Raad -

Ed Blankmeyer: The Baby Bull? He’s a young guy that obviously has not yet played a played a full season.  He’s passionate - high energy guy.  He is wired differently in a good way – he’s 100 Miles per hour – all the time – I use the word pacing with him – not in a negative way – sometimes he has to back down a little bit – he’s a fire cracker- he’s ready to explode all the time – typical of a young guy – catching is a prime position – he no doubt has the skills – it’s learning his trade behind the plate – learning how to call a game which he is becoming a better game caller – his receiving has improved – his blocking has improved – his throwing – he has a good arm – but again he has to work at it.  Now his bat – like Ronnie [Mauricio] – the ball comes off his bat special...when people make mistakes and it’s in the zone – he can do damage..."

JFA: Who’s the most fun to be around? Keith Raad: "Francisco definitely…he’s a jokester.  He’s 19 but he’s such a great, fast learner with the language so he can talk to everybody.  He wants to speak everything in English.  I practice my Spanish just to talk to him.  He doesn’t want it.  He wants to talk in English.  He wants to learn how to relate to everybody.  He wants to handle all the pitchers in English.  Because he wants to soak everything up.  He wants to do everything in English...Francisco’s raw power.  I’ve never seen anything like that...He’s just an absolute man up there. He’s hitting balls 105 miles per hour up to 110, 112 off the bat and every single time he takes a swing – he swings with all his might, which is certainly going to go far no matter what and probably hit for his entire life. "

Last year, Mack had Francisco Alvarez as his #1 prospect. About Francisco Mack said: "In my opinion, no one will have the impact of this guy when he gets his shot around three seasons from now.  Will be our starting catcher for many years to come."

Amazing Avenue recently had Francisco as their #1 Mets Prospect saying: "Behind the plate, the Venezuelan is an impressive catcher...Alvarez moves incredibly well behind the plate, especially for someone as stocky as him- though he will likely need to maintain his weight in the future to continue to be. The Mets were working with him in 2021 to frame pitches better by having him receive the ball on one knee, and while it did not lead to more passed balls, it did influence his ability to control the running game. Alvarez has an above-average arm in terms of strength and accuracy and has posted above-average pop and release times in the past, but needs to further refine those attributes with his framing abilities."

Prospects Live also has him at #1: "STRENGTHS  Alvarez offers huge potential at the plate with a compact swing that shows plus bat speed and an innate feel for finding barrels...Gets out of the crouch extremely well behind the plate, with consistent on-target throws. Has made big strides in overall blocking ability in the past 18 months as well...WEAKNESSES  Will expand at the top of the zone on occasion leading to some swing and miss...Will need to improve lateral movements and framing to potentially stick behind the plate long"

At the time of the signing, this is what SNY.TV had: “Alvarez is ‘one of the strongest players in the class,’ according to Baseball America. ‘He has a stout, blocky frame, although he moves surprising well underway for his size. Alvarez's swing starts with a small toe tap and he generates big raw power with an aggressive hack.’"

Baseball America recently wrote: Francisco Alvarez Has The Right Hitting Approach. "“For a young kid, he’s always displayed a good command of the strike zone,” [Mets assistant general manager at the time Allard] Baird said. “He’s got a very good approach in terms of it’s, ‘Yes, yes, yes, no, take.’ "He goes in there to hit. He’s not going in there to walk. He’s going in there with a very good, aggressive approach, but has the ability to make early recognition and if he doesn’t get his pitch will accept the walk.”

Francisco has an elite bat and an elite work effort.  He will spend 2022 as a 20 year old - not turning 21 until November.  I think he starts in Binghamton and possibly moves to Syracuse during the year.  His bat is MLB ready.  He just needs more time behind the plate.  Estimated MLB debut - 2023.

FanGraphs:

HitGame PowerRaw PowerSpeedFieldFV
25 / 5525 / 6070 / 7045 / 4045 / 5560

Francisco Alvarez’s Baseball Savant page.    

Stats:

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8 comments:

  1. Tom BrennanJanuary 18, 2022 at 3:30 PM

    Francisco Alvarez is an amazing, driven kid. What I like to think is he could turn out to be the best offensive player ever to come through the Mets' farm system.

    He's driven - I think if there is an injury around mid-year and beyond, he gets called up. I think the bat will be BIG, BIG, BIG in 2022.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Remember1969January 18, 2022 at 5:34 PM

    I love the homers and the power the guy has, but is anybody else bothered by the slow trots out of the box and around the bases? maybe it's me, but walking for the first 15 or 20 feet in Class A just isn't a good look .. .

    ReplyDelete
  3. TexasGusCCJanuary 19, 2022 at 2:08 AM

    Two things: The lack of taking pitches bothers me a little because I don’t want the kid to chase and be set up for trash.
    And, when he comes up, I’d like to do a “Wander Franco contract” with him.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Tom BrennanJanuary 19, 2022 at 9:36 AM

    Gus, agreed - lock Alvarez up.

    Bill, Alvarez is listed currently at 45 speed, and for a catcher, that's pretty fast. He no doubt will slow up over time, but that is the least of my worries when it comes to him.

    ReplyDelete
  5. John From AlbanyJanuary 19, 2022 at 10:50 AM

    He stole 8 bases last year.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Remember1969January 19, 2022 at 4:41 PM

    Tom ..it is not his speed that bothers me..it's the walk/showboating out of the box and again approaching the plate..see the jun 12 video..again, not a good look in class A ball

    ReplyDelete
  7. John From AlbanyJanuary 19, 2022 at 6:20 PM

    I respect your opinion Bill but I think we should let the kids play. The game is King in Latin American countries. Maybe if more of that game was embraced here it would be more popular here.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Tom BrennanJanuary 19, 2022 at 8:24 PM

    Bill, I think they talked to him afterwards. But I'd rather have an irrepressibly excited kid than a dowdy Duda type. Duda and excitement were antonyms. If Alvarez pulls that stuff as a Met, I won't be happy. I am sure he learned. Moxie is invaluable. Much better than timidity.

    ReplyDelete