11/2/21

Tom Brennan - Tom's Mets Prospects Top 30, and Near Misses, Too


Which Mets Prospects Are  What I Consider to be the Top?

Well, the Mets were not a near-miss for the playoffs.  

They were a far-miss.  Like that large meteor that the news media talks about occasionally that got so close to us it sailed past Saturn before leaving the solar system.  Saturn is only close in a parking lot.

So, what is left to do after their latest painful annual collapse?  

Door # 1) Talk trades and free agency; 

Door # 2) Talk leadership team changes; or 

Door # 3) Talk prospects.

I will choose Door # 3 and do a series on the latter.  

Tom's Top 30 Prospects.

Besides that Top 30, there are also ones below the Tom Top 30 that I see as the near misses, whom I will also list.  

On Halloween, Dr. Evil asked me, why only list 30 when you can list...40?  

So I'm doing 30 PLUS 10.

I am biased towards those who put up good stats. 

Everyone, it seems, had Dismal Desmond Lindsay on their list last year. He, however, stayed dismal until his dismissal.  Why? You may be a 2nd rounder, but second round hitters need to...hit.  He didn't.

Me? When a hitter hits well, and a pitcher pitches well, results-wise, he has my attention.  Deservedly so, since baseball is mostly about pitching and hitting well.  When a hitter hits crappy and a pitcher pitches crappy, I lose interest fast.  Anyway...

Let's go:

1) Francisco Alvarez - BEAST.  That's not a bat in his hands, that's a rocket launcher.  When I see him jack HRs, the ball disappears as if Mike Piazza hit them.  THWACK!! 

I think his career ceiling is...Mike Piazza.  Anyone disagree? 24 HRs and 70 RBIs in a little over 300 at bats in 2021, when your home park is the pitchers’ paradise (and hitters' torture chamber) in Brooklyn?  Sky is the limit for Francisco.  THWACK!

2) Brett Baty - fine BB season for "BB" in 2021. He hit .292 in A and AA, but that included him hitting just .239 in blustery Brooklyn, so outside of that offense-retarding park, he hit well over .300.  He should be big league ready once he puts another season under his belt. Striking out a lot in Arizona, showing he is most likely not ready yet.  Some day, this BB he may become the BB King of the Mets.  And an All Star.  I'm betting on it.

3) Mark Vientos - one could make a case for Mark being a co - number one slot with Alvarez, based on Vientos' 2021 torrid slugfest.  Started 2021 cold when he jumped High A and started out in AA, but then the dude hit better than a HR every 10 at bats the rest of the season.  Which is amazing at any level.  Who does that?   

He ended up with 310 at bats and 25 homers.  At that rate, if he had 620 at bats, would he have had 50 HRs?  Worth asking yourself that before you moan, "oh, he's just too slow".

4) Ronny Mauricio - average and BBs were not as good as I’d hoped, but his power bat emerged with 20 HRs.  I am guessing he lost perhaps 5 HRs and 20+ points in Brooklyn.  Factor that in  - and he suddenly looks more formidable.  

2022 should be VERY interesting for him to see if he can hit 30 HRs in the high minors as he continues to fill out. My guess? Piece of cake.  

Could he be a 30 HR guy in the majors in a few years?  Why not?

5) Alex Ramirez - 18 year old who was aggressively assigned to low A St Lucie and, after a real struggle his first few games, hit about .270 the rest of the season.  Very impressive to me to hit so well at such a high level at such a young age. Very toolsy, a true high ceiling OF.  

High, high up on my list due to what? Demonstrated potential.  Theory is nice, accomplishments are better.

6) JT Ginn - had a phenomenal recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2021.  Chance are he could be a future ace in the Mets rotation, perhaps by 2023.  If (heaven forbid) injuries stoke the Mets' starting rotation in 2022 anything like they did in 2021, you could see Ginn in the second half of 2022.

Sir Paul McCartney is singing, “Uncle Ernie, JT Ginn, open the door, let him in.”

7) Khalil Lee - walks a lot, gets hit by pitches a real lot (24 times in 388 PAs), and his hitting in 2021 was much improved.  Was only retired in 55% of his AAA plate appearances, which explains why he had an OBP of .450.  Opposing pitchers had to HATE him. 

The best-ever OBP while in the Mets AAA minors for on base machine Brandon Nimmo was .423, nearly 30 points lower, and that was accomplished in the PCL hitters’ wonderland, not in the normal hitter environment Syracuse where Lee played.  

Lee ought to be a frequently used Mets outfielder in 2021, either as a starter or reserve.  His AAA .450 ought to translate to a 2022 Mets' .300 OBP at a minimum, I would speculate.

8) Carlos Cortes - 42 XBHs in just over 300 AA at bats? Little guy, with a big XBH bat.  His playing only 34 regular season games after June stifled his stats for 2021; thru June he had a crazy-good 27 XBHs in his first 45 games of 2021.  Some say he is a sub-par 2B, and he spent a lot of time in the outfield in 2021.  Ambidextrous, but I am not sure if he is also amphibious.

I think if he drops hitting righty, his powerful, hit-filled lefty bat (.282/.368/.577) will get him to the big leagues at some point in 2022.  And, yippy, it appears that he has done exactly that - watch the 3 hits he got in the AFL season debut - all were lefty at bats against lefty pitching.  Fall League prospect roundup for October 13 (mlb.com)

He belongs in the Brennan Top 10.  Even if not at the Tippy Tip Top.

9) Adam Oller - from obscure scrap heap signing to Mets' 2021 Minor League Pitcher of the Year.  His walk-in music should be not heavy metal, but heavy Scrap Metal.  He had a meteoric last 10 starts in 2021, and has to seriously be considered for a Mets' starter/reliever role in 2022. What, do you want, fragile Tom Szapucki here at # 8?  Not on my list.  23 starts, 120 innings, 138 Ks in 2021 for Oller.  I'm ready to Holler for Oller.

10) Eric Orze - 5th rounder in 2020, he has a dandy splitter and had a mighty fine A - AA - AAA progression in this debut season.   12 Ks per 9 IP, too.  Based on that, I see no reason he won't be in the Mets' pen in 2022.  Maybe a future Seth Lugo or Roger McDowell equivalent?

11) Matt Allan - I moved him down the list a bit, since he is unlikely to pitch until late in 2022 due to requiring TJ surgery in May 2021.  If not for that, he may have been ready to join the Mets' rotation at some point in 2022. Most guys return 100% from this surgery these days, but Syndergaard is an example of recovery from this surgery not being a walk in the park.  Let’s see if Matt returns 100% first before I push him back higher on my list.

12) Calvin Ziegler - he reportedly has excellent stuff, and the 2021 2nd rounder out of high school did not debut in 2021, but will make his pro debut in 2022.   I'll take a flier on him at # 12.

13) Dominic Hamel 3rd rounder in 2021, and while his pro pitching in 2021 was only a short peek, it was very, very sweet.  He threw 3 perfect innings in the rookie ball Florida Complex League (FCL), fanning 7.  What's not to like?  I am already soliciting the Hall of Fame voters for early consideration.

14) Carlos Rincon - big power, 22 HRs and 77 RBIs in 2021.  Potential to be a decent big league power bat.  Needs to keep progressing.  Acquired from LAD in the Billy McKinney trade.

15) Jake Mangum - superb hitting in AA down the stretch, while adding some pop in 2021, giving me hope that he will carry that over to a decent big league career. Good speed, good D.  I could see him becoming a major league sub OF in 2022 at some point.  AAA bound.

16) Mike Vasil 8th rounder, 6'5" lefty Pitcher -  FCL league debut dazzler: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 Ks.  Gotta love that.  Perhaps too aggressively ranked, but it's my list and I love guys who are as effective as Vasil briefly was in 2021.

17) Brian Metoyer - former 40th rounder was almost unhittable in relief with tons of Ks. Throws HARD, control improving. Pitching in the offense-stacked Arizona Fall League, a few bad outings, and a few good outings so far.  Is the Mets' pen too hard to imagine for Brian later in 2022?  Needs to conquer AA and AAA first.  He needs to show me he is better than a former Mets pitcher with similarities, Akeel Morris.

18) Bryce Montes de Oca - 100+ fireballer needs to hone his control. High bullpen ceiling for the big guy once he nails his control down.  Hard throwers like him who can harness their command?  They soar like a helium balloon.

19) Jose Peroza - no, not older Jose Peraza - I had this Jose higher-ranked until he slumped late in the season. Still, he had a very solid 2021, and I have high hopes for him in 2022, so he is in my Top 20.  Should be laboring in AA.

20) Keyshawn Askew10th rounder, lefty Askew - great FCL debut, 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 14 Ks, 2-0.  Keyshawn rocks!

21) J.T. Schwartz - did not hit great in his St Lucie debut, but Low A is a challenging first assignment.  The 2021 draft 4th round 1B makes good contact. Power, not so much -  so far.  

I'll let him earn his way up my list.  Three pieces of advice: Hit, hit, hit.  And, the ticket to the big leagues gets punched quicker with muscular power, so live in the gym.

22) Kevin Kendallthe lefty batting SS and 7th rounder excelled in his tough debut assignment for the St Lucie Mets. In 113 at bats, .327/.421/.451, 8 of 10 in steals.  Some fans do feel that the Mets need a SS.  Realistically, the Lindor Wall, which has a 10 year warranty, stands in his way.  But a career start like that? Kendall is in my top 30…why?  I like guys who get it done.

23) Nate Lavender 14th rounder -  the 6'2" lefty in 4 FCL games, 6.2 IP, 1 run, 12 Ks.  Excellent!  My new favorite color?  You guessed it.  Again, a small sample, but why not # 23 ranking for a guy who debuts like that?

24) Hayden Senger - hit well for a catcher and caught well.  So, I am adding him to my list and frankly, he probably belongs higher. He also is getting added valuable experience and ABs playing fall ball.  Which is good, as he only had 252 PAs in 60 games in the regular season, going a solid.263/.341/.429.  Career 35% on "caught stealing" too.

25) Nick Meyer - I agonized for days over who should go first in my list, Meyer or fellow catcher Senger. I decided on reverse alphabetical order rather than flipping a coin. .251/.337/.324.  Hayden's got him on power. Career 35% on "caught stealing" too, just like Senger.

26) Wyatt Young15th round IF - an FCL darling, hitting a scintillating .370/.426/.478.  A lot better than a fellow former Hawaiian, Mets draft bust Branden Kaupe, who had an unimaginably low 4 doubles and no HRs in 600 career plate appearances before "retiring" in 2015.

27) Christian Scott - why not...for the sake of workplace diversity, if nothing else, I added a Christian to the list. If Jose Pagan was a Mets prospect, I’d add him too, just to be diverse. 

Kidding aside, Scott was a 5th rounder in 2021, so that and 3 good innings in 2021, too?  That's enough, I am on board.  He had us at Hello.  Tom Szapucki admired Scott's workload, I hear.

28) Nick Zwack 17th rounder, lefty - FCL dazzler: 7.1 IP, 13 Ks, 0.00 ERA.  Sweet!  Forget McDonalds, give me a Big Zwack Attack!  Also, "Zwack" is the sound of a fly swatter nailing a mosquito, so I have an affinity to Zwack.

29) Travis Blankenhorn - probably belongs higher. I dunno. Seems like AAAA to me, though, after his .246/.354/.456 hitting in AAA and his 4 for 23 as a Met. I like his TB initials, though.  And if he ends up someday in Seattle, he can become the next Justin Turner.

30) Luke Ritter - Ritter was quite the hitter when not playing in Brooklyn, with a gaudy .561 road slugging %. Brooklyn was worse than purgatory for him, as his .279 slug % there attests. He can show us what he's really got in AA next year, when hopefully he plays in a lot more games than the mere 73 he got into due to his injury-impacted 2021 - and gets out of Brooklyn Hell.  Tough hitting into the teeth of a cyclone.


Past my top 30: 

31) Eric Gordon - the 32nd round righty had a sensational stretch in AA in 2021. But his last outing was late August. Probably fine health-wise, maybe they wanted to limit his innings.  He'll be 26 next season. If he picks up in 2022 where he left off in 2021, he tears up the Brennan Top Prospect list in a Flash (Gordon).

32) Jose Butto - probably belongs higher, as he pitched well in 2021, but Jose B gave up homers at a very high rate (17 in 99 innings) in 2021, which concerns me enough to push him slightly out of my Top 30.  Hopefully, it was nothing more than fierce gale force winds blowing out every time he pitched.

33) Tom Szapucki - he needs to show me more than injuries and potential.  Just 190 pro innings from 2015 through 2021, a span of 7 years.  In contrast, in 1974, Nolan Ryan had thrown 191 innings - by that season's All Star Break!  He had a lousy, injury-filled 2021.  He has yet to leave a durable impression on me.

34) Wilmer Reyes - misses almost the whole season, returns…and hits!  Thankfully he headed to the Fall League to get more 2021 ABs.  Doing OK there so far.  Only dropped from the Brennan Top 30 due to severe lack of playing time in 2021. Get him to AA in 2022 to start.  John From Albany will heavily scout him there.

35) Allan Winans - 26 year old had heck of a year in AA in relief. 26 outings, 1.72 ERA, 0.81 WHIP.  Good for him.   Now, he needs to continue that excellence at AAA and the majors.  I'd have him higher but I don't always trust strong reliever stats until they can be replicated at AAA. 

36) Jaylen Palmer - many, many good physical attributes, but when promoted to High A, the highly athletic JP fanned a jaw-dropping 65 times in 39 games. Fix the K problem, move towards the head of the class.  For many hitters, though, Ks are their Achilles heel.

His ultra-high 254 Ks in 167 pro games in 2019 and 2021 make me push him much further down the list than others might place him.  Somehow, that many Ks...and yet a still-solid career .356 OBP.  Head scratcher.

37) Jack Wold 12th round outfielder - for St Lucie Mets, in his debut, 86 ABs, 8 XBHs, .279/.315/.442, just 17 Ks in 25 G.  Very nice career kick off at a level as high as low A, so I added Wold to the fold.  No reason he shouldn't climb fast.

38) Matt Rudick 13th round infielder - for the FCL squad, the 5'9" OF generated .303/.404/.447 in 76 at bats, 6 for 6 in steals.  Nice!   Might he be a Carlos Cortes with speed?  We'll find out in 2022.

39) Josh Walker - nice, nice season - we'll see if this non-fireballer lefty is being way under-ranked by me in 2022.   He might very well be.  After all, he really PERFORMED - he was 9-4, 3.73 in AA and AAA, but turns 27 in December.  

40) Justin Lasko - a 30th rounder in 2019, his second season as a pro in 2021 was a fine one indeed.  7-9, 3.67 ERA in A and AA.  The 24 year old righty did get hurt and didn't pitch much after a strong July.  His 8.14 ERA in AA showed he had a case of the Binghamton Blues, and AA Abuse Syndrome.  But let's see if Lasko can survive and thrive in AA in 2022.

KEEP IN MIND...LOTS OF GUYS NOT IN MY TOP 40, SO GIVE THESE GUYS A HAND.  

Not on the list, which could be my mistake: 

Michel Otanez was suggested to me for this spot as he throws up around 100 at his peak...but his 40 innings of 58 K ball in 2021 also came with a crazy 41 walks.  Considering 2016 was his first pro year, a walk an inning in A ball 5 years later appears to be a lethal fault to have.  Walks need to be cut in half in 2022, at a minimum, period.

Tommy Wilson might have made it, too, but is just returning from TJS.  In his return, he was 1-0, 2.35 in 15 innings in AA, and like Josh Walker, could prove me totally wrong by vaulting not just up my list, but also to the majors in 2022.  Career? 10-7, 3.28 ERA in 151 IP, 1.09 WHIP.

Two more points:

A few (here unnamed) guys in the Mets' Top 30 (on their website) did not make my Top 40 due to extended stretches of poor performance.

I also stayed away from the young DSL Latin players, who so often falter as they move up the food chain. For instance, former bonus baby Adrian Hernandez, who started out in the DSL in 2018, hit .133 in 98 at bats in Brooklyn in 2021.  With just 3 runs scored.  And just 3 RBIs.  Maybe you had Adrian on your list back in 2018.  Maybe you should have waited.

After all blast from the past, Vicente Lupo, tore up the DSL one season about 10 years ago, but found performing above that level, state-side, to be much more failure-inducing. 

I'm from Missouri, so they'll have to Show-Me. They’ll have plenty of time to earn their way onto my list in 2022 with fine hitting and pitching performances.

At this point, I always think: 

I know I’ve completely overlooked somebody. 

If that happened, my apologies for that.

You, the most incisive readers on the planet, can let me know whom that might be.

Thanks for reading this far.  Long article.

28 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

The question is whether the as-yet-to-be-named new GM peddles them away or keeps them for a future in Queens...

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, that has happened a lot.

For instance, after a truly rough rookie year, I think Kelenic will prove he is real in 2022. They need to avoid trading away guys who become elite elsewhere, if at all possible.

TexasGusCC said...

Well… interesting….

I’m hoping more Danbrowski and Bloom than Van Wagenen, meaning a GM that will first get to see the players before they unload them. bTW, I’m reading in several places that the Alderson and Alderson dynamics of the front office is keeping people away… I mean, ever firing an Alderson would be a no-no in the industry, so are you stuck with him? What ever happened to nepotism?

As for the list, I need to digest it first. I don’t think the many guys that had some FCL success are worthy of higher rating for that, but I’m partial to those that have moved up the ladder. I guess you’re tired of Newton…

I think Kelenic will struggle again. Needs to learn to hit the deuce.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, Newton’s 2019 and 2021 were way too high in Ks, and too low in hits. I cant help thinking of Champ Stuart as a comp, and that may be unfair to Champ. Newton needs to cut the Ks in half.

Hopefully, the Anderson Barrier is breached in the coming months. I agree that someone who has seen the prospects can best decide on hold-or-trade.

I hear Kelenic is so focused, he’s gone out and bought himself a little deuce coupe.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, I’m going to make a prediction and say Kelenic will Ben traded this winter. They have Lewis, and Rodriguez coming up. Even after Kelenic went to AAA and “righted himself” to the tune of .320/.392/.624/1.016, he came back up on July 16th and until the end of the year he gave a .209/.291/.402/.693 result with a .252 BABIP. So, you can hold him and see if he can adjust, or you move him for a comparable offer and let the next guy take his chances. What would you do if say a team says Megill for Kelenic? What about Peterson for Kelenic? I think DiPoto cuts his losses and flips him. One more bad year and he won’t have much value.

nickel7168 said...

Tom, Thanks so much for doing this early and for going 40 deep and beyond. I agree with you that production counts for something when ranking these prospects...a fine list

Tom Brennan said...

For Kelenic, Megill no, Peterson yes IF I think Josh Walker can more or less replicate Peterson. Neither are flamethrowers, but Peterson may have the higher velo.

Megill fanned a lot of guys. I think that means he will fix his faults from 2021 and be really solid in 2022. He stays.

John From Albany said...

Great list Tom and great info on recent draft pics.

Josh Walker is great - until someone gets on base. That is his Achilles heel as runs against him tend to come in bunches.

I probably would have put Cole Gordon higher. He knows how to pitch.

Mike Freire said...

Crazy that Mauricio has slipped down most lists.......I think he is a stud and will be the best player from this lot (except for maybe Alvarez). Picture a better version of the Yankees Alfonso Soriano and I think you will be close to what he will likely become for the Mets (fingers crossed they don't trade him away.....that would be worse then the Kelenic deal, IMO).

Mauricio is the main reason why I am on the fence about re-signing Baez. With Lindor in town for the next decade, Mauricio will probably shift to 2B and a long term Baez deal will block him from that opportunity (unless he ends up playing in the OF, but I prefer him as our long term 2B man).

Good list, Tom.

Tom Brennan said...

Nickel, thanks. This is a game where, if you don’t produce, patience thins quickly.

Tom Brennan said...

John, good point on Josh. That was Matz’s problem while here. Josh should watch John Franco tapes. He bent like a pretzel, but usually escaped.

Tom Brennan said...

Mike, I wonder if people who rank don’t watch closely enough. Mauricio video clips show he has legit POWER, and likely he’ll add some more. He honestly looks a lot like Darryl in some of those clips. Fine fielder, too. If I did not see the clips, and factor in Brookly’s 10th man, the wind, I’d probably have him lower. But he deserves # 4.

Tom Brennan said...

Thanks you to those who responded. You are in my Top 30!

John From Albany said...

Tom - besides getting on base, Khalil Lee can also steal making him very valuable. He also has a great arm. Put him in RF next year.

nickel7168 said...

I don't think you omitted anyone but BB Amer. might disagree.
They ranked Joel Diaz 9th in their top 10. I know you omitted
the DSL and I agree with your reasoning (esp. for hitters), but
it's possible he didn't belong in the DSL to begin with.
Here is what BB Amer. said "Diaz, 17, impressed in his first season of pro ball and the right-hander turned some heads in the DSL. In 15 starts Diaz struck out 63 batters in 50.1 innings while walking only nine. He exhibited solid control considering his age and remarkably, did not allow any home runs. His 0.54 ERA, 0.755 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 made him an easy choice for the No. 9 spot"

Upon further research..."Joel Diaz has been having his way with opposing batters all summer long. After avoiding an earned run like the plague over his first nine starts, Diaz finally cracked to allow one to score on Sept. 7.
That doesn’t mean batters have figured him out. Diaz is still running a .388 opponent’s OPS and striking out exactly a third of the hitters he’s faced. The only starting pitcher in the organization with as many innings pitched and a better strikeout rate than Diaz is Tylor Megill, who fanned 36 percent of his counterparts before earning a major league promotion. He sits 91-94-t95 mph with a nice curve and change. Keeping tabs on him going into '22."

Tom Brennan said...

John, I am on board with Khalil as a 4th OF, or platoon with Pillar, with expectations he’d become a full timer by mid year. Good skills overall.

Tom Brennan said...

Nickel, great point, and I hear you. Junior Santos was a real achiever super young, too, and has been simply OK to good since. The DSL just strikes me as very good high school ball. I hope Diaz is in my top 10 next year. I wonder what round Diaz would have been drafted this year if he had to go that route instead.

Anonymous said...

Zwack Attack?

TB, I like your coverage of all these MiLB NY Mets players, a lot actually. Of all the top players you listed, which ones do you honestly think will get a true ST shot for starting at Citi Field right out of the gate in 2022?

I have three and have mentioned them here prior.

The problem is this.

Does the NY Mets management (and ownership) see this possibility too or are they going to spend millions and go with FA's and other teams trade acquisitions for here?

Personally speaking, I think the Mets should take very serious looks at at least the three I have outlined. There really does need to be changes made and a youth movement for 2022, and when you have a few guys who can really play this game consistently at a high level in MiLB I just simply believe that they deserve a fair look for a starting position.

Anonymous said...

Kelenic

isn't going anywhere. He had sensational MiLB second half and won over his new team in so doing.

The 2022 Mets outfield to me is a no brainer. LF JD Davis (hits for average and when his hand is 100% really solid power) CF Brandon Nimmo or Khalil Lee (whichever). Both can bat top of the order and get on base at a very high rate. They would make perfect table setters for 2022. The Mets have the 3-6 power batters behind them.

The stolen base situation here in 2021 was dismal with Villar with like 14 leading the short list. I guess "Mr. Analytics" did not compute this into the equation as a key factor. This needs to improve and these are the two guys you want batting one and two in order to attain attain this.

The Mets would have JD Davis (LF), Francisco Lindor (SS), Pete Alonso (1B), maybe Robbie Cano (2B) (not sure yet), Mark Vientos (3B), and God willing too here Francisco Alvarez (C) to swat them in for runs.

Many will fear this idea. Many will not feel secure with this. It's NY and everyone wants a proven and expensive All Star Team like 1986 was. Not me. I am fine with the above. It has balance. It has enough talent. And it is for now and the future.

Just get Carlos Rodon (LSP) and Robbie Ray (L) and it is all done.

It takes some redirection. And it takes some onions. But I totally believe that this is the way to go now for this organization. Brett Baty, Ginn, Mauricio, Oller...are close as well. The future looks bright to me.

nickel7168 said...

It's unclear whether any of those prospects are ML ready.
Better to build the best ML team you can and have those
guys playing everyday in the minors as your depth/backup.
See if Lee can win a ML job in ST.

bill metsiac said...

Great job as usual, Tom. Will there be room for all of Mauricio, Baty and Vientos, with Cano still here thru '23, McNeil still competitive, and Baez "on hold"?
I still like the idea of Mauricio learning the OF, with the speed that could make him a fine CFer. He's made a lot of IF E's so far, and that could hurt.

TexasGusCC said...

I’ve asked many times why we allow anonymous posters; still no answer.

Remember1969 said...

Nice write up, Tom. I agree with you on the results matter concept.

As far as 2022 goes, it is ludicrous to entertain thoughts of Alvarez, Baty, or Vientos challenging for an MLB roster spot. None of them are ready yet. Vientos is the only one that has had extended time (> 2 weeks) as high as AA.

With that being said, bring them to camp for the experience and education, but even if the go 17 for 20, it does not mean they are ready to face major league pitching for a full year.

Khalil Lee is the only Mets hitting prospect that could make the team out of spring training, but I'm still not sure but what he would be better off starting again in Syracuse to work on bringing the strikeouts down.

Viper said...

Great reading Tom. Is nice to know that we still have prospects in the farm and not just sheep.

The Mets should take a good look at the Braves roster and see what all that young energy has done for them.

Forget Baez who will be expensive and often disappears like Conforto for long periods during the season. Save the position for Mauricio.

In 2022 the Mets can use McNeil at 2B and play Cano/Vientos at 3B. At least until he tests positive again.

Tom Brennan said...

Nickel, I have to think Lee is ready. He surged down the stretch. Every call up has risk. Vientos? Not sure…might be. But they thought Kelenic was ready too. Always best to ease hitters in, unless they are budding superstar types. Spring training a good barometer.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, I hear the Mauricio errors part, but I think he is expected to outgrow that with solid SS D skills. But if the Mets want to keep him, outfield might be the place.

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, I sure would prefer short term contracts to tide us over to the kids. It could be short time-wise. No reason Baty and Vientos can’t conservatively be ready by mid-2022. Alvarez? He could soon be the #1 ranked prospect in baseball. I am sure he lost a number of hits to the Brooklyn gale. I could see him doing 2 months AA, 2 months AAA, and being ready to be a 50-50 catcher with McCann by August. I think of how fast Soto and Acuna shot up. Mauricio, I think OD 2023.

The real question always remains: how good are they really? Alvarez, I have no doubt. The other 3. Will they be .270+, 30 HR hitters, or .240, 20 HR hitters. Front office has to figure that out. Also, Carlos Cortes mid-2022, with same question attached.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, see my response to Viper. That’s my honest take.