Tom Brennan - Mets' Pluses and Minuses

 

We all know the Mets went 77-85 in 2021...

although many of us would prefer to forget that.

The Mets scored 32 fewer runs than they allowed, so 77 or so wins was very appropriate in that regard.

How did the teams that did well do, by comparison?  "Did Well" means the 11 teams that won 90 or more games, plus Atlanta which, while it only won 88 games, won its division (not to mention the World Series).

There was considerable variety in these wins vs. "net runs scored" (defined as a team's runs scored over its runs allowed). 

For instance, the Yankees snuck into the playoffs, winning one game more than Toronto, despite the fact that the Jays had 141 more net runs scored than the Bronxites.    

Also, Seattle somehow won 90 games despite being -51 in net runs scored!  Smoke and mirrors!

The top 12 teams on average won 95 games and were +132 net runs scored.

The Dodgers led the list at +269, good enough for 106 wins and only a Wild Card entry into the playoffs.

The 4 teams that had at least +200 in net runs scored averaged 103 wins.  The fact that only 4 teams managed to compile a +200 or higher shows that is a difficult level to reach.

Atlanta, despite "just" 88 wins, had a +134 in net runs scored, which is most pertinent to the Mets, since the Mets trailed the Braves by 166 net runs scored, a hefty gap to make up.

All of the above said, given the clear but not extreme correlation between wins and net runs scored, It seems to me the Mets' target should be a minimum of +150 next year.

To round the net increase from 2021 to 2022 needed to likely win the division, the Mets ought to hope to add +200 in 2022 over 2021, ending up with a +168 - so their minimum target for 2022 should be to add at least 200 more net runs scored in 2022.

Another way to look at it is to only consider the 8 teams that won between 90 and 95 games, but dropping out the ones with most variability - the outliers (Houston at +205 and Seattle at -51).  The remaining six 90 to 95 win teams averaged 92 wins and +106 runs.   The Mets should want to win at least 95 games and should likely then have at least a +150.

Looking at the Mets' NL peers that succeeded, LAD, SFG, Milwaukee, STL, and Atlanta, the 5 teams averaged 97 wins and a +153 in net runs scored, or 185 more than the Mets.  Of that, the Mets' pitching trailed those 5 by 47 runs, but the offense trailed by 138 runs.

If Scherzer and Jake can be Scherzer and Jake throughout 2022, it is not unreasonable, with some additional pitching adds after the lockout that the 47 run pitching gap can be closed. The offense, with bounce back years from Lindor and a few others, ought to score at least an extra half run per game, and thus pare at least 80 runs off of the 138 run gap to their peers.  The Mets have made offense moves, but will still have to find extra hitting to truly compete. 

At least that's how I see it.

Oddly, the Mets won 77 games in 2021 with -32 in net runs scored, and in 2018, the Mets also won 77 games with a -31 net runs scored.

Over the last 5 non-playoff seasons, the Mets only went positive once (+54) in the year that Alonso and McNeil exploded in 2019.

Otherwise, the Mets were -22 in the 60 game season, and -128 in 2017.

Not a good 5 year history in net runs scored.  If you annualize the shortened 2020 season, you'd have a -60, so for the last 5 adjusted seasons, the average was a -40.  That's got to change upwards by 200 runs this year for true playoff viability.

That's enough mind-bending math for one morning.  Have a great day.