Mack - Draft Preview (part one) - Friday, July 15th

 

We’re going to do this over the next three days, leading up to Sunday’s Draft Day when the first round is called out. 

First, my observations on this draft plus a mock at 1.11 and some tweets. 

Tomorrow, the same, and Sunday morning, my top 50 picks in this draft. 

My thoughts going in: 

- This is a talented draft. In my opinion, the most talented in 10 years. 

- Let’s rate them like the college football sites do. 

- Batting wise, there are 10 5* bats in this draft and another 15-25 4* hitters. The real cream here will go early, so, if you want them, you need to call out their name with your first pick. 

My 5* hitters would be catchers Kevin Parada and Daniel Susac, 2B/3B Jace Jung, shortstops Brooks Lee, Termarr Johnson, Zach Neto and Jackson Holliday, 3B Cam Collier, and outfielders Druw Jones, and Elijah Green. 

Darkhorse bat would be a tie between 1B Ivan Melendez and 3B Max Wagner. 

- Pitching wise, this was going to be a very talented first couple of rounds. Then Connor Preilipp, Reggie Crawford, Peyton Pallette, Henry Williams, Hunter Barco, and Landon Sims all went under the TJS knife. 

Projected first rounder Blade Tidwell also lost a big chunk of his season to arm problems. 

This leaves less than a handful of projected healthy first rounders, like Brock Porter, Jackson Ferris, and Brandon Berriera. 

And then there is the Kumar Rocker question. 

Darkhorse would be Cade Horton, who has sick stuff, had a horrible season for Oklahoma, but was basically lights out in the College World Series. 

- Every draft has HS/Prep players to pull out before Day and announce they will attend their college of choice. Their have been a handful, but those of us that do this expected a lot more by now. Will there be a few at the last minute? 

One more, OF Paxton Kling announced on Twitter that he will definitely attend LSU. If there are any more, I will include them in this 3-part series. 

 

Mock Drafts - 

Wyatt Kleinberg's 2022 MLB Draft Mock 40 here - 

1.11  -  Dylan Lesko - RHP, Buford (GA) 

Pick Overview: 

With the eleventh pick in the 2022 draft, the New York Mets will select Dylan Lesko out of Buford, GA. Despite having suffered a UCL tear in his senior season (resulting in Tommy John Surgery), Lesko remains one of the top pitching prospects in this draft. With a fastball riding into the upper 90s, a wipeout runner of a changeup, and a solid curveball, Lesko’s arsenal is already solid but still has room to grow. 

His frame is not yet fully filled out, and with his hip, trunk, and shoulder mobility appearing plus (no data), Lesko likely has more velo to access as he gets stronger post surgery. While this may seem like a strange selection for the Mets after the Kumar Rocker saga a year ago, they are a club with a lot of veteran talent that has no need to rush any prospects up. Lesko could be slow cooked, only getting the call when he is ready a few years from now. 

Why Lesko at 1.11: 

The Mets are in a great spot as an organization – they are extremely successful at the highest level with many of their players locked up. While they did decide against signing Kumar Rocker as a result of an injury risk last year, taking a potential ace where the injury is known (and the club can oversee his rehab), is a completely different story. 

Lesko, if he recovers well and develops as expected will be more than worth the wait. Lesko is the best player left on the board at this point, and will be a hot commodity – it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him ask for over slot money. If the Mets aren’t willing to pay that at 11, the Tigers probably will at 12. 

The Player: 

Fastball: 60 Changeup: 60 Curveball: 50 Control: 55 

 

Northside Mock draft here - 

1.11  -  NEW YORK METS (COMPENSATION) – 

JACOB MELTON, CF, OREGON STATE 

Perhaps the first surprising name in this mock. The Mets have a ton of flexibility with two first round picks. Here the Mets take a player who could sign for closer to $1.5M leaving New York the ability to float a $7M bonus down to pick 14. 

 

Draft Tweets -

 

To:  Mack Ade 

Walter Ford @Vanilla_Missile 

Thank you buddy and thank you for all you do for these draft prospects! It doesn’t go unnoticed 

 

Michael Baron @michaelgbaron 

Kevin Mitchell will be represent the #Mets at the 2022 amateur draft this Sunday. 

 

Carlos Collazo @CarlosACollazo 

Players taken in the 11-20 round range can sign for up to $125,000 before that money counts towards a bonus pool. 

Same thing for NDFAs. 

 

Pitcher DIGS @DigsPitcher 

D1 Hitters (Top Draft Prospects)

-Contact rate over 85%.

-Iso Pwr&BB over .350. 

Zach Neto

Jacob Berry

Tyler Locklear

Brooks Lee

Kevin Parada

Matt Wood

Trey Lipscomb 

Make loud contact; do damage on contact; take lots of walks. That's a strong combination! 

 

Mason McRae @mason_mcrae 

Highest wOBA’s this spring against power five schools only (minimum 75 PA): 

1. Ivan Melendez (.527)

2. Sonny DiChiara (.515)

3. Max Wagner (.513)

4. Ryan Lesko (.504)

5. Zach Neto (.502) 

  It doesn’t matter who he’s facing, all Neto does is produce. I’d take him in top-10.