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7/15/22

Reese Kaplan -- Let's Make the Right Kind of Trade This Time


In the immortal words of Monty Hall, let's make a deal!


Well, let's at least think about the way in which deals can and should be made.  Those two approaches are often the polar opposite ends of the transactional spectrum.  Deals can always be made if you swallow a lot of money in payroll obligation, give up your most highly rated players who are not key factors in your post season run, or sacrifice the prospects people have been drooling to see. 
 


A good example of this kind of deal was last year's two-month rental of Javy Baez who cost the team Pete Crow-Armstrong, one of their most highly regarded hitting prospects.  Javy Baez was a real thumbs up for the club despite his thumbs down shenanigans.  In just 167 ABs he hit .299 with 9 HRs and 22 RBIs for his new employer.  You really can't complain about that at all.  

Of course, to obtain Baez (and Trevor Williams) you gave up Crow-Armstrong who was your 2020 first round draft choice.  He didn't play that season due to the COVID cancellation of the minor league schedule but he came back to start the 2021 season by hitting .417 in 24 ABs before a right shoulder injury pretty much shut him down for most of the rest of the year.  


He moved over to the Chicago Cubs farm system where he moved between A and A+, hitting a combined .321 with 11 HRs and 38 RBIs and went on to represent the Cubs in the 2022 Futures Game.  His future looks bright but there's a long climb from A ball to the majors for this 20 year old lefty hitting center fielder.  

What makes the whole give-away-the-farm approach even worse is that the Mets opted not to retain the services of Mr. Baez.  That means they gave up the future 10-20 years of Crow-Armstrong's development and career in the majors for two short months of ill-fated offense.  

This kind of deal made headlines because the Mets brought in an All Star level player for a "great unknown" who'd only had 24 minor league at-bats.  Think about how Nelson Cruz and other former Mets minor leaguers played elsewhere.  That same eventuality exists as a real possibility once again.

Then there are the trades you should make.  In this scenario you send off second tier and tertiary players with perhaps someone flawed in your top 30 to another club in which they hope a bundle of whatever can add up to the value of whomever they're sacrificing.  

This type of deal often doesn't work as the minor league players are poker chips at best and you never know how they will respond as the level of competition increases as they move up the chain towards The Show.


No one knew, for example, what Noah Syndergaard and Travis d'Arnaud would become when the Mets decided to parlay Cy Young Award winning pitcher R.A. Dickey into kind of the opposite of the Baez trade.  In this case they knew Dickey would be in for a monstrous pay increase so they were looking for the sun, the moon and the stars.  

For the Blue Jays it meant giving up their most highly rated pitching prospect and their top catching prospect in this deal.  While we won't prolong the many injuries of their careers, no one can deny that Syndergaard in his short major league career has already far eclipsed what was leftover from R.A. Dickey.  

d'Arnaud was one of those Cliff Floyd types who seemed to do well on the rare times he wasn't disabled and he's put together some nice post-Mets seasons for himself.  In this case the Mets got the better of the deal by taking a shot on guys who they felt would develop into solid level major leaguers.

So right now as Billy Eppler and company look over the prospective players who might be available from the mostly non-contending teams out there, they have to decide if they want to repeat the Crow-Armstrong approach or if they want to try to be on the receiving end of top AA and AAA players to help fortify them in the future.  

There is a third approach, of course. You gather up the names of whomever isn't at the top of your future roster projections and bundle them all together in a quantity over quality offer for some other club's solid but not necessarily All Star level returns.  This type of deal is what I envision happening for the Mets in 2022.  

They don't have a player on an expiring contract they really can afford to ship out of town.  They were rightfully crucified for abandoning prospects in the past.  Consequently the safest route would be to offer up many mid-level folks who may or may not progress to star caliber in the majors in exchange for mid-level major leaguers who can help right now.  

It may not make the headlines of the other types of deals but it won't cripple the club's growth potential in the next few seasons either.  

7 comments:

  1. Morning (evening) Reese

    I thought the Baez trade was a bug win at the time. Though talented, PCA was an injured minor league that easily could have not panned out.

    In retrospect, we almost got to the playoffs because of Javy and Williams is paying us pen benefits this year. PCA is sting years away.

    So far, a good deal, but I expect that trade alone put the skids on any future trades of prospects in the MLB top 100.


    Guys I would offer in a trade pool package up for grabs:

    Dom Smith
    JD Davis
    Ronny Mauricio (no longer in top 100)
    Thomas Szapucki
    Jose Butto
    P Robert Dominguez
    IF Travis Blankenhorn
    OF Travis Jankowski
    OF Daniel Palka
    OF Nick Plummer
    OF Stanley Consuegra
    RP Bryce Montas De Oca
    OF Junior Tillen

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  2. Trevor WIlliams in 89 Mets innings since trade, a 3.38 ERA - not shabby. Looks like Gsellman a bit, thankfully does not pitch like him.

    Get a bat or two - when this team gets Jake back, no pitchers will be necessary, with May and Megill (and Montes de Oca?) not too far off.

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  3. Several thins to talk about....
    I am starting to think with so many team still in it that we cannot find the bat we need that is a rental. Josh bell is it but the nationals may not play ball with us..

    and I was 100 percent against giving up crow last year for Baez flawed player. I am wondering do we really change focus and give up our top prospects for real diamond. (IE. say the blue jays fall out of it do we say we want a Springer. or if Cleveland falls out do we say we want Ramirez. and they become future players for us for the foreseeable future)

    secondly for Mack I agree with that list you presented as the group we would pawn away for needs this year...
    But regarding the draft. i have seen on many mock drafts scenarios that truly would make me nuts if they fall that way for us...
    Guys like crawford, Jett Williams, Cole Young as options...

    In my desires I want Brock Porter and Lesko 1&2.
    I don't see a bat I love in that range id Cross or Susac is selected i can at least understand it.

    but I cannot understand taking 5'11 5'7 5'8 players who dont hit for bi power at these selections when there are bi arms and we dont have arms in the pipeline..

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  4. Morning Eddie

    3 part draft preview starting this morning

    Save your prediction for OPEN THREAD on Sunday noon.

    As for first round, ALWAYS draft best player still on the board. That's why the Mets picked Rocker last year.

    Don't worry. One of the power bats we seek will be available to us at 1.11

    Unless

    We choose to underslot so we can overslot in 2nd round

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  5. Most of the big arms are already damaged goods. Get a bat and maybe the Michigan HS pitcher. If he’s gone get two bats use the next three picks to get pitchers,maybe one of the damaged ones.

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  6. Oh, and don’t trad Mauricio!

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  7. How long would it take Michael Conforto to get ready for MLB pitching? He may be the best, cheapest option out there for a DH for the last couple months.

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