Well, sir, well, ma'am...
When the Mets led the Braves by 10.5 games this year, it felt like the Mets had it locked up, don't you agree? But then the Braves went all Bucky Dent and Whatnot on the Mets.
78-34 in the Brats' last 112 games? Sick stuff.
So - if the Mets fell short of the division title despite 101 wins in 2022, is there a chance to sit atop the division in 2023?
Yes.
But....but....how?
Increase the net runs scored differential.
How?
Score more, and allow fewer runs.
The "score more" part may be the easier of the two. If there is any reduction in output from the excellent 2022 seasons of Alonso, Lindor, and McNeil, I think it will be a mild reduction. Meanwhile, Francisco Alvarez may generate 40 more runs produced from the catcher's spot. Tomas Nido began to hit better in 2022, finally, and that ought to carry over to 2023 as well and bridge the Mets to the 2024 arrival of Wunderkind Catcher II, Kevin Parada.
Senor Escobar got over his NY pressure hump, and although aging, ought to be as good or better in 2023. Brett Baty should provide better supplemental offense at 3B/DH, and Mark Vientos ditto.
Then, instead of a Darin Ruf veteran bum-at-the-trade-deadline scenario, call up a young, eager Ronny Mauricio in August. Wyatt Young will of course be ready to be a Joe McEwing/Luis Guillorme versatile sub type if needed by mid-2023.
Nimmo has to stay, or Judge has to come here. Or both.
Nothing else will do in that OF.
(C’mon…How About Both? You could twist my arm. I like 10-9 wins much more than 2-0 losses).
I think Marte has at least another season of excellence in him. And Canha another year of "solid", as well.
So, I am confident of the 2023 offense.
The pitching will be another story…
Why? Multiple starter free agents and an aging Max. Trevor Williams the 6th man will be a free agent, too.
In short, there will be potentially tremendous flux in the starting rotation, with little help on the minors horizon. It is likely (in my opinion) that the Mets get a strong rebound from Tylor Megill from his injury-plagued 2022. Jose Butto is a possible decent fill-in starter.
I think Max will be joined by David Peterson and (as noted) Megill in the rotation, and that trio could turn out very well, but with fingers crossed. Then the free agency market becomes the re-filling station. Perhaps one or two of the Mets' four starter free agents - Jake, Walker, Carrasco, and Bassitt - stay.
If it turns out to be Jake, the possibility of getting a lot more starts out of him in 2023 (perhaps 30 starts) as opposed to the 26 in total that he provided in 2022 and 2023, combined, would be a huge rotation upgrade.
My gut tells me just one or two, mayebe 3, of the 5 free agent starters stay.
One reason for that few is: ya gotta change the product on the grocery shelves to freshen it up to shake off the foul taste resulting from a case of MCS (Mets Collapse Syndrome).
This rotation restocking project is going to be mighty tricky it the Mets are to come out of the winter smiling when thinking about their revamped rotation.
After all, 100 wins is the new floor for this team. 99 and a half won't do.
Complicating starter matters is the likelihood that Dom Hamel, Blade Tidwell, Matt Allan, and a few others are all mid-2024 possible-to-expected rotation arrivals, so they will have to plan free agent acquisitions around the newbies. They may want free agent pitchers who are good for 2 seasons, so when 2025 arrives, these kids can step in. (If you use him in both the bullpen and as a starter, should we call him Switchblade Tidwell? Just wondering).
Bullpen? They got great work out of Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino and very solid work out of Seth Lugo. All are free agents for 2023. Trevor May is a FA, too. Mychal Givens? Free agent, too.
Richard Nixon wanted to make one thing perfectly clear:
Edwin stays or the Mets don't win 90 in 2023.
So this pen is going to get some degree of a makeover, and that leaves the door open to strikeout/walk machine Bryce Montes de Oca to discover a lot more control this off-season and become a pen mainstay that doesn't have fans reaching for the Excedrin.
Hopefully, the “John Curtiss return-from-injury 2 year signing gambit of 2022” pays off for the team in 2023. Eric Orze could break through in a back-end-of-bullpen role - he had an up and down season in 2022, but much more up than down after a miserable season start in April 2022, and induces beaucoups whiffs.
All in all, building a 2023 pen that is even as good as the one in 2022 represents another major and possibly daunting challenge.
Maybe it is too much to ask for this Mets franchise to win more than 90 games in 2023, but shrewd player retention and pursuit and plenty of Cohen Cash could make the Mets worthy (and hopefully more successful) adversaries next year.
Do I hear 102-60?
P.S. Luxury Tax Blues:
Frontofficesports.com recently noted the following:
"Six MLB teams are on pace to get hit with the league’s luxury tax, for only the second time in history. MLB’s top spender, as has often been the case, is a New York team — but not the Yankees. The Mets boast the league’s top payroll ($273.9M) as of Aug. 31, according to data reported by The AP, and are projected to owe a league-high luxury tax of $29.9 million."
So, the Mets have a big lux bill, that only gets bigger next year, as percentages increase.
Spend wisely, but spend muchly, too. Disburse Bigly.
UH-UH-UH SECTION:
Uh..uh..uh..YANKEES LOSE! A Sterling outcome for any Mets fan.
In a Mets MLB Trade Rumors site article, it said this: “ Unsurprisingly, those plans may well include more spending, as owner Steve Cohen isn’t planning to cut payroll after the Mets set a new luxury tax high of approximately $298.8MM in 2022.
ReplyDeleteEppler said that Cohen has already provided a “pretty close” idea of what the 2023 budget will be, with the idea that extra spending will act as a “bridge” to keep the Mets competitive until their farm system develops the depth to start consistently generating talent from within the organization.”
Waiting on degrom and Diaz. After that I'm down to talk Mets title contention!
ReplyDeleteErnest, it is all a matter about buying enough WAR and eliminating weaknesses. 102 wins? Unlikely, but we do have Cohen Cash.
ReplyDeleteI am not all on board for Jacob deGrom usurping a $40 million plus number each year for 11 starts any more than I am for Aaron Judge and his injury woes. I'd rather see more .300 hitters than more all-or-nothing types.
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteAre the Mets required to wait until the end of the World Series to sign their own free agents or can they do that now? Let's get Diaz signed as soon as possible.
I agree that Diaz is a must - we need a dominating closer and he has done the job. That said, he is not invincible, so if and when he pitches for the Mets next year, he will blow a save or two - don't get down on him.
ReplyDeleteA new and fresh rotation may help. The current pitching staff is very old in baseball terms, so infusing young blood like Butto and letting MeGill and Peterson have a place in the regular rotation will be a long term success. Also getting some MLB legs under Baty and Alvarez will pay dividends later in the season. However, don't expect those 102 wins when you are building up your youth.
D J, I am not sure, but if Edwin wants to stay here (why not?) Cohen will pay him. He was the teams most indispensable player. If they lose him, I may not watch the Mets.
ReplyDeletePaul, the bottom 16 guys average-wise had 1269 at bats in 2022 and hit .204. I think that was 23% of their ABs. A lot of those ABs will likely go to Alvy, Baty, Vientos and Mauricio. I think they will do much better than .204. My guess is .225 -.235. So that alone will help.
ReplyDeleteWithout Diaz we are not a competitive team.
ReplyDeleteRay, we might of won 20 fewer. He was that Horacio at the Bridge in so many nail items. Losing some of those would have taken away their swagger and replaced it with stagger.
ReplyDeleteRanking the (3) Causes for the NYM 2022 Collapse.
ReplyDelete1. Slightly older and shop-worn starters who were too injured and consequently ineffective the last most crucial part of the 2022 season and first round of the playoffs.
This was obvious to all. It looked almost like a typical MLB choke job, but if you looked a little bit closer, it absolutely was the NY Mets injury curse back again to bite. It does need to be properly addressed this off season by the NYM's ownership, GM, and brain trust. The NYM rotation must be upgraded with new starters (2) via trades and/or free agency signings so that this same exact horrible conclusion here does not happen again in 2023. All Mets fans already know this.
2. The Mets management team simply did not recognize #1 above at all really, but instead decided to drive the bus right through this obviousness. Perhaps they felt that the starters they had on the team at this time as possible sub-ins, were also too IR banged up later season. There was no help from Syracuse forthcoming, and no truly wise last minute starter acquisition made for insurance purpose before the trade deadline.
3. Shabby batting. If you ever played this game of baseball, at any level of play, you too know that the confidence amongst the players going out into the field is often based upon their perception of being able to actually win that game with their starter on the mound. This got broken later on 2022. Momentum was not the Mets friend by the last two weeks of 2022. It had been broken at the very worst possible time just prior. It looked like a confidence thing to me. I expect 2022 to be totally much better all around.
2023 NYM Rotation
SP: Scherzer, Rodon, Walker, Carrasco or Wacha, Peterson, Drew Smith or T. Megill in the six spot to hopefully lessen some veteran starter's arm tiredness that plagued too many veterans later 2022. This gives the 2023 rotation a decent balance of veteran and younger starters, plus three righty and two lefty starters.
On deGrom, it's his call.
But to my eyes his arm issues began about the same time as he ramped up his fastball to 99-101 mph a few years ago. Issues that now seem permanently ingrained within his right arm. I just don't think we will see Jake go one more whole season ever again or anywhere. But man, he sure was once so unbelievable. But "Big Ben" is ticking now.
Other Quick Notes
ReplyDelete1. Yes, on Edwin Diaz having to be re-signed here. Do you remember when people said here, that they were not so high on him when he became aMet? But he had that amazing 100 mph fastball that he threw like it was nothing for him to do. I liked him immediately and the Mets needed a hard thrower like him from the pen.
2. Please do not forget to throw Jake Mangum's name into the outfield equation for 2023. He's only 26 years of age and hit .306 last season at Syracuse, with a .363 OBP. To me he could be next season's starting LF.
LF Mangum CF Nimmo RF Marte.
3. Power Bat Additions: Should be C Alvarez and 3B Baty to begin 2023. With Ronnie Mauricio and Mark Vientos possibly having their chance come mid-season maybe due to an injury happening to a starter ahead of them. Uniquely, both of these players can play multiple positions which is a real asset for this team.
LMAO,kid you’re great, you should be on WFAN.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, glad you enjoy the reverie during another imploded post-season. Humor helps make it fun.
ReplyDeleteI do agree with many of your observations. Old pitchers are suspect more often than not. Jake reminded me of the new Top Gun movie, when Tom Cruise pushed it beyond its limits to Mach 10, and the plane gave out.
Bring back Dillon Gee!
I still refuse to call 101 Ws a failure, or "collapse ". I give credit where it's due-- to the Braves, who refused to quit and had an awesome final 2 months.
ReplyDeleteWe (and others) have talked endlessly about our FAs-to-be, but I've heard nothing about theirs.
Their budget is more limited than ours, so they just might be losing some key players, as they shocked everyone last year by letting Freeman walk.
Does anyone here know which players they are likely to lose?
Bill, a very good question, and very Brave of you to ask it. Worth looking into.
ReplyDeleteThe Braves will only lose two key players to free agency, Dansby Swanson and Kenley Jansen, so don't get your hopes up. They'll probably do fine without the remaining guys with salaries over $2-million: Adam Duvall, Jake Odorizzi, Robbie Grossman and Luke Jackson. Not even worth naming their under $2-million crowd.
ReplyDeleteDave Schulps, excellent dose of reality, and we can only hope that our fearsome foursome of Alvarez, Baty, Vientos and Mauricio out-perform in 2023. So we can keep up with the Chipper Joneses.
ReplyDeleteBill, Dave Schulps provided your answer - likely, not what you wanted to hear.
ReplyDelete