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12/9/22

Reese Kaplan -- Pre/Post Winter Meeting Mets Roster Review


So the baseball Winter Meetings are now over (as is the major league and minor league Rule 5 draft activities). A lot has indeed happened yet all anyone seems to be talking about with respect to the Mets is what didn't happen or what could have happened or what should have happened. Let's review.


Subtraction of Jacob deGrom

No matter how you slice it, there is no easy way to say goodbye to a two-time Cy Young Award winning starting pitcher who likely would have taken home another one or two if he could have managed to stay healthy. There have been other great pitchers in baseball whose careers were not as long as everyone would have liked due to injuries. Sandy Koufax immediately comes to mind.

The issue here with deGrom is two fold. First, did he want to be in New York when the sense (no reference to back it up) is that he felt slighted when the front office went out to pay Max Scherzer significantly more money when deGrom had been here helping out the Mets all along. 

If it was a hurt feelings issue, then there's probably nothing that could have been done to change the attitude and sense of being treated payroll-wise as a second class to newcomer Scherzer.

The second issue is the money and term involved to retain him taking the mound every 5th game. For the Rangers, if his final year option kicks in that $185 million deal rapidly soars well past $200 million as he nears Scherzer age. That's a lot of coin for someone who has missed as many games during his career as Jake has.

Then there's the third issue alluded to in the previous paragraph. Health. There's no simple way to put it, but Scherzer has been a healthy pitcher during his career. deGrom has not. Why would you want to pay $38 million or so for someone to spend a lot of time on the IL? 

As big a fan as Steve Cohen is and no matter how much he wants to win, the fact remains that it is not a good business investment to tie up that much capital for the latter stages of an oft-injured player's career. 

Hey, everyone should wish him well for all that he did for the Mets and hope that he finishes for the Rangers in similar fashion. The likelihood is slim, however.

Finally, there's the matter of taxation alluded to in an article this past Monday regarding what it costs to play in Texas, Seattle or Florida as opposed to New York. The Mets couldn't change the tax structure which meant they would have to kick in a lot more money just to be even with what the take-home pay would be in other venues. It hurts, but he's gone and now the Mets have to look at alternatives.


Welcome Justin Verlander

There's not much that can be added here other than to greet the Cy Young Award winning pitcher with open arms and acknowledge that for fewer years he's going to give you the kind of pitching you would have hoped to get from deGrom. Getting Verlander very quickly took the sting out of the deGrom departure and three years from now he's off the books entirely.


Jose Quintana is Now a Met

While he is not the kind of monster pitcher people were hoping the team would sign, the fact is that Quintana is a solid left handed arm and at moderate money for 2 years at $26 million.  That's less money than other pitchers would have cost and he's a pitcher who at times has been dominant.  

He's bounced around a bit in his career from the White Sox to the Cubs to the Angels to the Giants to the Pirates to the Cardinals.  He's both started and relieved, though he's viewed as a starter for the Mets.  For his career he's 89-87 with a 3.75 ERA.  By comparison, departing Taijuan Walker is 54-50 with a 3.89 ERA.  


Adios, Taijuan Walker

Maybe it was the hair. Maybe it was the tattoos. Maybe it was his consecutive year post All Star break collapses. He never seemed to ingratiate himself to Mets fans nor the front office the way other pitchers have. It hurts to see him land in Philadelphia, but cynical Mets fans will dance with Schadenfreude glee when an injury or bad starts render the Phillies' $76 million investment moot.


Nice to Meet Ya, Zach Greene

In a rarely executed draft day move, the Mets grabbed reliever Zach Greene from the crosstown rival New York Yankees. His numbers are pretty good but he's not yet made the climb to the majors. For his career in the bullpen he's got a record of 14-8, a 3.08 ERA and averages over 13 Ks per 9 IP. He does walk more than you'd like at 3.5, but he gives up very few hits and kept his WHIP just a tick over 1.000. 

He must remain on the roster all year or be offered back to the Yankees and put on waivers before the Mets could demote him to the minors. Considering how thin the bullpen is right now, that's not a huge risk to take.


Another Quality Arm Added to the Pen

Last season the Mets were hotly rumored to have interest in star relief pitcher David Robertson but never pulled the trigger on a deal.  This season minus Seth Lugo, Mychal Givens, Trevor Williams, Adam Ottavino and others, they had no issue securing Robertson when all it took was money -- $10 million of it.  Robertson's record is well known.  He's 57-36 with a 2.89 ERA for his career and going into his age 38 season he's the kind of quality fireman that truly serves that 8th inning role.  Welcome aboard!


Welcome Back, Brandon Nimmo

While his market was exploding with interest (particularly after the Aaron Judge contract was signed), many felt the Mets would be moving on from their original top draft pick.  The news came out on Friday that the team not only brought him back, but for eight years and $162 million.  No one is questioning the annual salary as it is indicative of what the market is for solid if unspectacular players.  My concern is the longevity as you will be paying that annual rate for his ages 36, 37 and 38 seasons.  Let's hope he stays healthy and continues to evolve as a fielder, hitter and OBP nightmare for opponents. 

Say Hola to a Few Former Marlins

Relievers Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham came to the Mets for Franklin Sanchez and Jake Mangum. Hernandez has good control but is not a huge strikeout guy and definitely gives up too many hits. With a major league career ERA of 5.04, he's a wing and a prayer type of acquisition. 

Jeff Brigham didn't enter the major leagues until age 26 and wasn't a steady player until age 27. Now turning 31, he's pitched to a slightly better ERA than Hernandez, but nothing else on paper jumps out at you except filling the bullpen for games in Florida come February. 

 It seems that giving up Franklin Sanchez who is a big and hard throwing pitcher with no control is not a major risk, but there are folks who felt Jake Mangum has enough hitting ability that they wanted him in New York as a spare outfielder. He hit .284 as a minor leaguer, but started late due to college, then the closeout year of 2020. He has little power, decent but not spectacular speed. He could make the majors as a 4th or 5th outfielder but thinking you gave away a future star who is already turning 27 is probably not realistic.

Tampa Bay Traded Southpaw Brooks Raley to the Mets

Veteran pitcher Brooks Raley is already going to be turning 35 yet many folks are not familiar with him or look at the totals for his career and scoff. Look much more closely at his 2022 season for the Rays. He was in 60 games, struck out 10.2 per 9 IP, walked just 2.5, and had a season's ERA of just 2.68. 

It could be an outlier or maybe something finally clicked for him. Given that the Mets did not have a lefty penciled into the bullpen, the price paid for him -- lefty Keyshawn Askew -- was a little stiff given his fine two-year stint in the lower minors. However, he's several years away from the majors and the Mets need help now, so this trade looks pretty good on the surface.

Joely Rodriguez Somehow Nets $2 Million

For a long time the trade of Miguel Castro for Joely Rodriguez looked especially bad until Castro hit the IL for a long stretch. J-Rod picked things up a bit in the latter portion of the season, but finished his one-year in a Mets uniform with a 4.47 ERA (which is actually slightly better than his career norm). To say you won't be missed is an understatement.

Minor League Signings

Tommy Hunter is back, as is Sean Reid-Foley and then there are newcomers Zach Muckenhirn, Denyi Reyes, Tayler Saucedo and Jimmy Yacabonis. Hunter is interesting and if healthy, Reid-Foley has some potential. The others are probably just filler. 

They did grab William Woods from the Braves, Stephen Ridings from the Yankees and Edgar Moreta. The first two are hopeful for Mets fans as progress from them would be respective kicks in the teeth to their former employers.

The Great Unsigned

Right now there are many former Mets seeking employment, headlined by Adam Ottavino. Accompanying them in the "Will Work For Food" line are Seth Lugo, Mychal Givens, Tyler Naquin, Trevor Williams and Chris Bassitt. Thus far they are available for the high bidder assuming bidders materialize.

Other Players to Other Teams

The Trea Turner fantasies are done now that he'll be eating cheesesteak in Philadelphia. Mitch Haniger is now a Giant. Some wanted Jose Abreu as a DH but he's gone to Houston. Jameson Taillon will try to pitch in Wrigley Field. No one else who moved around was likely on most fans (nor the front office) radar.

Still Available (And Needed)

Kodai Senga is looking for a contract and it won't take a posting fee to obtain him. Carlos Rodon needs a job. There's a huge drop off the end of the table after that, so trades may have to be entertained.  

13 comments:

  1. All in all, things are shaping up very nicely. Cohen is dropping money bombs but unlike the original Money Bomber, he lacks the Steinbrenner circus atmosphere.

    When they lost Mangum, in one sense, I was sad, but in Steve World, I then expected BETTER talent - enter Stage Right, Mr. Nimmo.

    Are they done acquiring bats? I'd say if they truly believe in the quartet of Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio and Vientos, they are likely close.

    More pitching? Most likely, with more Cohen Bucks heading outwards.

    We stuck with the Mets for 60 years, hoping for the franchise to be rescued and run boldly. We've gotten it. Time to win Mack another ring.

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  2. I'm thrilled with what the Mets have done so far this off-season.

    The Verlander addition sets iff the Jake subtraction.

    We now have out top 4 outfielders set... Marte, Nimmo, Cahna, and McNeil (part time).
    Need one more here.

    Unlike many, I'm not in the power bat shopping. Our kiddies will take care of that.

    I could go to camp with this team but one more starter wouldn't hurt

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  3. Mack, I think one more starter, one more pen arm (Ottavino, please). I do NOT like Khalil Lee but strictly as a 5th OF, I could stomach that. He’d pbobly have a .280 or better OBP and adds speed, D, and a cheap salary. I sure wish Mauricio was getting OF time. Baty could, in a pinch.

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  4. Love the recent moves. The 40 man roster almost filled. Mets will need to make some decisions soon with additional signings (hopefully a #3 and one more solid relief pitcher).

    FS

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  5. Who's going to be the catcher? Who is the 5th starter? Who is the 7th inning guy? Who is spare outfielder? Who would take some of the expensive contracts of non-critical players to bring some money back to our owner?

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  6. The good part about what has gone on is the fact that none of the chips have been thrown in the pot.

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  7. I love chips, let's keep the good ones

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  8. Flash back three or so years and this type of offseason only existed in some parallel fantasy world.

    You can't question Steve Cohen's desire to win and he is certainly putting his money where his mouth is, right?

    I do find the double standard amusing........every Mets' move is accompanied by some reference to "wild spending" or check book baseball, yet other teams (Texas, Philly, San Diego, Yankees) are congratulated for their desire to "win" when they ink crazy long deals for tons of cash.

    I mean, look at the Nimmo and Judge contracts.........they are close in age and they both got long term deals (8 versus 9 years). Both of them have had injuries in the past, too. Granted, Judge is a more valuable bat (hence the doubling of his salary compared to Nimmo's), but why is Nimmo's deal a risk and the Judge deal is "smart"?

    If any of you are interested, you should research the careers of position players in MLB that are tall (over 6-6), once they hit their thirties (hint, it's not pretty). I would wager Nimmo will play more games and justify his deal, compared to Judge, but maybe I am just a homer?

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  9. Ruf justifiably gets a lot of heat for $is awful '22, but in the 2 previous ones he hit over .270, with decent power and excellent #s vs RHP.

    '23 may see a rebound or itay continue the slide, but he's not costly in $$, so we might as well wait until OD to get the answer.

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  10. Bill, Ruf was an effective reliever

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  11. How can you not like the amazing job Stevie is doing. The pivot to Verlander after Jake left was shocking but of course it was a good shock and lets face it Met fans were just not used to this but I love it. The salary cap lets face it is a joke if you have mega bucks and we finally have an owner who is a MET FAN and will simply blow the lid off the cap because we know he's not done yet and won't take a back seat to the Braves and Phils something that we all dreamed about since the beginning of our fandom and now its here! It should be one hell of a year. LGM! I guess now we can also dream about Ohtani next year too. This is awesome.

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