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12/9/22

Tom Brennan: Cohen Tsunami of Spending Engulfs Division Rivals

LUXURY LIVING CAN PUT YOU IN A HIGHER TAX BRACKET - BUT YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE, BABY!

"Incremental Costs and Incremental Benefits."

I wrote this article yesterday afternoon…by yesterday evening, we got our answer. Please read on.

Rod Serling might say it this way: 

"You're living in a recently built $500,000 home and see an older, palatial $1.5 million home.  For you it has incremental benefits, but at great (and to some degree open-ended) incremental cost.  Taxes can be hefty in the Luxury Tax Not Light Zone."

Likewise in the wild, whacky, wonderful world of baseball.

The Competitive Balance Tax CBT) thresholds for the 2023-26 seasons are:

2023: $233 million

2024: $237 million

2025: $241 million

2026: $244 million

A club that exceeds the CBT threshold is subject to an increasing tax rate depending on how many consecutive years it has done so.

First year: 20% tax on all overages

Second consecutive year: 30% 

(In 2023, the Mets will be in this 2nd penalty year)

Third consecutive year or more: 50% (Ouch, like to avoid that!)

If a club dips below the CBT threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. 

But wait - there's more.

There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.

$20 million to $40 million: 12% surcharge

$40 million to $60 million: 42.5% surcharge for first year; 45% for each consecutive year after that (this is the level the Mets find themselves in, but barely, as of December 8, 2022).

$60 million or more: it jumps to a 60% surcharge

Also, clubs $40MM or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next MLB Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead. 

(This is the Mets' current position i.e., their 2023 draft level gets impacted, and definitely, their 2024 draft pick will be impacted too).

I am not going to try to calculate the amount of the 2023 penalty, in case I misinterpret the rules and hence miscalculate.  However, the penalty is big bucks, and above the $293 million threshold, it gets to be very large.   It seems that every dollar above $293 million gets a 30% threshold tax and 60% added surcharge.  Hefty, hefty, hefty.  

So, if a Nimmo gets signed and his incremental salary falls entirely above the $293 million threshold, I believe the cost to the Mets for his 2023 salary would essentially double. $25 million a year becomes $50 million a year.

So, the incremental CBT costs from here on out are huge.

But the incremental benefits could be huge, too.  

If getting Nimmo back would hypothetically turn the Mets from 25% likely to win the division to 75%, and the Mets would have a 50% chance of missing the playoffs without Nimmo, but only 10% if he is signed, that is a huge inducement to incur the incremental cost to attain the likely immense incremental benefit (knowing, however, that all investments are risky and past performance is no guarantee of future results).

And team revenues go up the more successful you as a team are.

It should therefore be interesting to see how Messrs. Cohen and Eppler address this conundrum.  

Most fans are far more interested in incremental benefits than incremental costs, while it is the owners who incur and pay the incremental costs.  Heck, most voters vote for the pols who give away the most stuff, except in the government's case, the funds for ALL such giveaways are funded through incremental borrowing.  Then taxes eventually go up incrementally.

Living at the top end of the luxury CBT threshold tax mountain is hellaciously expensive.  But, given competitive balances in the NL East and NL overall, sometimes pain is unavoidable.  The Mets are feeling the incremental pain of luxury spending.


But …. That was all written yesterday afternoon, shortly before we saw it: 

Steve Cohen is proving he is simply TOO RICH AND COMMITTED TO LOSE!

By signing Nimmo, one of my favorites, to a huge 8 years, $160 million deal, he is recognizing all the positive attributes Brandon brings to the table and the team. David Robertson for one year, $10 million keeps the Mets further away from having an ineffective bullpen.

And…if he busted the cap with these deals, why should he be done? There are other players to acquire, to make this team invincible.

All it took was his determination and Cohen Cash.

I wonder who’s next? 

I wonder what our departed rodeo boy is thinking? 

How about you?

 

9 comments:

  1. This is the epitome of "ain't my money"

    Sent a private message to Steve this morning;

    "Thanks for the VISION last night."

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am very pleased that we were able to sign Nimmo.
    One thing I dislike about the big free agent bucks is that often teams are paying for a player's past performance. Not so here - Nimmo has improved every year he has played, and I fully expect him to be a better version next year and the 7 after that. Good move, Mets!

    And good analysis, Tom!

    And good purchase, Steve!

    And great site, Mack!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Steve wrote back:

    to: Steven Cohen from Mack

    You had vision last night.

    9:22 AM from Steve Cohen to Mack:

    1 new message
    Hope I was seeing straight

    ReplyDelete
  4. This is Moneyball of a whole different kind. I like it.

    My brother addresses the big contract player failure possibility....write it off and keep spending!

    I want Ohtani - and why wouldn't he want the Mets?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Rodeo Boy must be having at least a few seconds of second thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I changed the article's title to give it more of a NY Post feel. Maybe a touch of National Enquirer

    ReplyDelete
  7. As crazy as the expenditures seem, I am sure that Steve and Co have already game planned this out and have an idea of where we are headed in the next few years. A LOT of money will drop off the books as we move forward (Cano, Max, etc), so if the kids can come up and start to fill in holes, the penalties may not be a huge issue in a few years?

    I like the Nimmo deal......keep a homegrown player who is a hard worker, keeps getting better and WANTS to be here (right Jake?).

    Plus, in a couple seasons, he can move to one of the corners when our CF of the future is ready........it could line up well with the end of Marte's contract. Almost like they team has a succession plan in place for the first time in forever.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Nimmo is a really good player no doubt and I agree. But eight years when he is what 29 years old now, is a lot of years. Seems like too much. Would have better liked 3-4 years. Does he career numbers warrant the eight years. I would have tried to sign Andrew Benintendi instead for $14.0 per over three years, like had been rumored. I think both players are very comparable and very good though.

    But the absolute key signing this off season here, after the Justin Verlander signing, is absolutely the signing of SP Kodai Senga. Chris Bassit and Kodai Senga are both looking for very similar length and contract amounts. But Senga is more optional to me because of his age, 30 come next Opening Day. Whereas Chris Bassitt will be 34 on Opening Day 2023. Bassitt also had the 2018 TJ surgery thing which cost him considerable time.

    I just like the one, two, and three of Scherzer, Verlander, and Senga better.

    ReplyDelete