Paul Articulates – Key stretch?

The New York Mets have had a rough start to the 2023 season, with the starting rotation devastated by injury and suspension, poor production from the 3B and Catcher positions, and continued underachievement from the DH spot.  Somehow they have managed to muddle through to a 14-11 start which is good enough for second place.

We take encouragement from the hot starts by Brandon Nimmo (.349 average and .950 OPS through 24 games) and Pete Alonso (10 HR, 23 RBI, .918 OPS through 24 games).  We take encouragement from Jeff McNeil’s batting recovery to the .300 neighborhood from a shaky start and continued hits when we need them from Francisco Lindor (18 RBI in 24 games).  We feel good that Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi have affirmed our suspicions about pitching depth.

We are hopeful that Starling Marte will soon find the rhythm in his swing and start pounding the ball like we expect, and we anxiously await the coming of age of our two young prospects who have been given the chance to show what they can do at the major league level.

Verlander is throwing again and the timer is counting down on the Scherzer suspension, so Mets fans are just biding their time until we become a formidable team again.  It’s just a matter of time, right?

Well, I’m here to tell you that time is not on our side.  The Mets are three games behind an Atlanta Braves team that has started the year well and is showing that they are a team to reckon with this year.  Those are the same Braves that beat the Mets in a tiebreaker for the NL East tiebreaker and thrust the Mets into a short series against the Padres that ended their season.  This is not a fate to repeat this year – the Orange and Blue has to push to win the division and eliminate that risk.  To do so, there are two very important things that must happen:

1) Beat the Braves when you play the Braves.  The MLB schedule was altered this year so division rivals no longer play 19 games against each of their rivals.  This year division rivals play 13 games against their rivals in four series – two home and two away.  That means that every Braves (and Phillies) series is more of a factor in who wins the East.

2) Beat up on lesser teams.  The other change to the MLB schedule was to allow each team to play all 29 other teams during the season.  No more “luck of the draw” – you’re going to play the same teams so now you have more control over your own destiny.  Beat the same guys more than your rival and you gain ground in your division.

If you accept those two things as necessary, then you realize that this limping Mets team is in the midst of a very important stretch.  

Over a 20 game sequence, the Mets play 16 games against teams that qualify for “lesser teams” in the premise.  The Nationals, Tigers, Rockies, and Reds are not expected to compete for much more than a high draft pick this year so a team with the Mets’ capabilities should with 75-80% of those games.  That is 12-13 wins that will go a long way in September when people are calculating magic numbers.  Having lost two already to the Nationals on a sleepy hangover from the west coast, there is very little margin for error.  There is very little time for pitching depth and young prospects to step up and help this team win.

The other four games in this 20 game stretch are against the Braves.  This is a bad time to come limping in to a Braves series without a dominant starting rotation and a healthy bullpen and a productive lineup.  Justin Verlander won’t get a start in that series and Max Scherzer will likely be available for the May 1st game.  Kodai Senga pitched on Wednesday so he is not due to start again until after the Braves have left town.  It is going to be up to the depth to pitch brilliantly against a very formidable Braves lineup.   

If the Mets split the Braves series and take 9 of the 13 games against Detroit-Colorado-Cincinnati-Washington, all will be well.  If not, there is going to be a significant hill to climb because you can expect the Braves to beat those four teams mercilessly when they get their chance.

This is a key stretch coming up, Mets.  It’s time to show your colors.