This one-time Mets batting champ hit just .189 at age 35 and promptly retired.
The Mets have had a formula over the years - fill in with aging vets, hope for quality, generally get a lack thereof, and then find the old guys they used retire shortly thereafter. This is a quick-hit article, so further research and (perhaps) refutation is on your nickel.
Picking 2010 as an arbitrary starting year to test out the aging-players-ain't-great-in-most-cases hypothesis, let's see how it holds up.
2010 - 34 year old Rod Barajas hit .225, 34 year old Luis Castillo hit .235 with 6 extra base hits in 299 plate appearances, 34 year old Alex Cora hit .207, 38 year old Henry Blanco hit .215, 25 year old Fernando Tatis Sr. hit .185, 35 year old Gary Matthews hit .190, and 36 year old Frank Catalanotto hit .160. Old before his time, 32 year old Mike Hessman hit .127.
- man, those old guys did great, huh? No, pretty awful, actually. These bums had a lot to do with Jerry Manuel losing his job.
2011 - amazingly, the oldest guy was Carlos Beltran at 34, and being a superstar, he hit .289. Willie Harris was 33 and hit .246.
- hardly any 2011 old guy usage; 2011 was favorable in that regard.
2012 - 33 year old Jason Bay hit .165, while 34 year old Andres Torres hit .230 with a mere .337 slug %. 32 year old Vinny Rottino hit .182 in limited ABs.
- tried to avoid old guys, but Bay's noggin aged him early, and Torres had to therefore play a larger role. Can't blame the Mets here for 2012.
2013 - 35 year old Marlin Byrd shocked us, hitting .285 with power, while the team stayed mostly young. 33 year old Rick Ankiel hit just .182 in fewer at bats, and provided quite a breeze with his very high Ks.
2014 - 33 year old Curtis Granderson hit a disappointing .227, while 40 year old Bobby Abreu still retained some of his hitting acumen, hitting .248. Not terrible, and Curtis actually hit far better on the road than his .195 with 7 HRs in stingy Citifield, a stinginess point often raised by yours truly.
2015 - 34 year old Granderson and 36 year Michael Cuddyer both hit a modest .259, with 36 HRs in 959 at bats, so that was decent enough. 36 year old Juan Uribe hit .219 but gave them a huge, early post-trade jolt. The rest of the hitting contingent was young. Age was good in fantasy year 2015.
2016 - 35 year old Grandy slipped to .237, while 33-going-on-43 David Wright hit .226. 34 year old Kelly Johnson was still strong at .268.
2017 - 34 year old Jose Reyes slipped somewhat to .246, while 35 year old Nori Aoki hit well - .284 in 102 at bats. 33 year old Rene Rivera was decent for a catcher at .230. 36 year old Grandy hit .228 before heading to LAD, where he hit .165 for them in the stretch drive.
2018 - 37 year old Jose Bautista slipped to .204. Jose Reyes at 35? .189, so the two old Jose's hit under .200 in 473 at bats - which is a lot of subterranean at bats. 36 year old former start Adrian Gonzalez hit a soft .237, and 33 year old Jose Lobaton hit .143.
- not a surprise, therefore, that the Mets finished 77-85 (lots of lousy younger part time hitters were also a key factor in 77 wins, to be fair).
2019 - 36 year old Robbie Cano hit a soft .256, while 33 year old Carlos Gomez was hitting the career wall, as he hit .198 but had one exciting, game-winning HR.
2020 - short season. 32 year old Wilson (Buffalo) Ramos slipped 50 points to .239. Age was about to slaughter the Buffalo's career. 34 year old damaged goods Yo Cespedes hit a strikeout-strewn .235 in limited ABs. Cano surged to .316 at age 37 for perhaps troubling reasons. 34 year old Todd Frazier sagged to .226 in limited ABs, and 36 year old Robbie Chirinos hit .219 in limited at bats. Heck, everyone's at bats were limited in tragic 2020.
2021 - 34 year old Cam Maybin was a scintillating 1 for 28. 32 year old Kevin Pillar hit .231 but with a meager .277 OBP. His recovery from his beaning, however, was remarkable and not forgotten.
2022 - two prominent 33 year olds - Eduardo Escobar's late surge bumped him to a still-disappointing .240, while Mark Canha's hot start faded a bit to a still solid .266, with a fine .367 OBP. 31 year old Tyler Naquin hit .203 as a Met and is now in AAA. Cano briefly hit .195 after his return from his substance suspension. 35 year old Darin Ruf hit .152 as a Met. 32 year old James McCann hit .195.
- Despite Canha, not a good year for the oldies. One could say oldie blahs (and injury outages from aging Jake) stifled a terrific season.
2023 - it is early, but three 34 year olds (Canha, Marte, and Escobar) are hitting pretty darned poorly. Elder statesman Tommy Pham had one big offensive game, but is otherwise hitting poorly too. One who is objective ought to be feeling unease with those 4. Older by the day.
Nido? He isn't old yet at age 29, but his mid-game average last night was a miserable .115 (5 for 43) with a lonely little RBI and 2 little walks. If you wish to write in support of Tomas Nido, please remind me not to read it, because his offense (.251 career OBP) is horrendous - and some guys lose it at age 29. Those 3 laggards are hitting below .160 in 144 at bats. Nido stays because they need a second catcher - for now. The other two? Call up Vientos and Mauricio ASAP, and have Pham and Escobar leave.
The current question seems to be how soon the kiddie corps starts absorbing more of the old-timers' at bats.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The Mets pretty infrequently have used guys 34 and over, but largely to poor results. Catchers under 34 aged more quickly - 32 for catchers was 34 for other hitters.
My quicky recommendation? Stay young, if at all possible, when building a team.
Old hitters in baseball with good careers tend to rapidly decline as they age. It goes poorly far more often than it doesn't for these aging vets. Delusion or nostalgic thinking is not an effective team construction strategy.
And there is nothing worse than watching an aging offense fail to hit. BORING, BORING, BORING.
Speaking of boring, can Luis G ever knock in runs? 2 in 50 plate appearances this year, just 41 in 751 plate appearances in his career. And just 71 runs scored lifetime.
Four straight losses to 2nd tier teams? Unacceptable.
DOM SMITH: last night, he doubled, his first XBH in 93 PAs this year. Still stuck at 4 RBIs though. Is Luis Guillorme his hitting idol?
Lastly, Daniel Vogelbach, disliked by many (“he clogs the basepaths!”), has a .418 on base %. Funny how that works, huh?
Compare to Nido’s .152 OBP. “I like Tomas - he doesn’t clog the basepaths.” To clog them, you need to actually get on base.
Happy Thursday, people.
Jeez, this post reals old
ReplyDelete4 simple moves to make this team younger, exciting, and give the bottom of the lineup the chance to be as competitive as the top and middle:
Make Brett Baty the starting third baseman
Promote Ronny Mauricio and give him second base (moving McNeil to left)
Make Francisco Alvarez the staring catcher
Promote Mark Vientos and make him the DH
That's what I suggested back to October. Nice to have you on board.
DeleteMack, I would make that my plan. Kids might struggle, but if one does, call up Danny Mendick, who’s got a .366 OBP in AAA. My guess is they wait til Verlander and Max get back and reassess.
ReplyDeleteMack, I was sure you’d applaud Vogelbach’s 418 OBP. 😁
ReplyDeleteVery few teams have two CYA pitchers on their roster, no less both out of the lineup
ReplyDeletethings will improve rotation wise when they come back
until then, hold on to the strap if you're riding the 7 like
Those four in a row really hurt. Just when we needed offense, the bats have developed holes. Pitching is not ever going to be good enough to win many games when we are scoring 2 or less runs.
ReplyDeletePlay the kids,that’s the ticket! Look at Baty and Alvarez.
ReplyDeletePaul, Escobar, Nido, Pham, and Guillorme = collectively terrible offense. They might climb to POOR from terrible if things break their way.
ReplyDeleteI worry about 33 trurned 34 Canha and Marte…is age reducing their 2022 results. My guess is 25 points lower on base. That will also hurt.
Good article "TB"
ReplyDeleteTo me, it's just a classic early on season of "if things can go wrong, then they probably will." The key starter injuries with brown chair time for Max Scherzer (bad, bad boy!) for committing his crime of basically nothing that unusual really, and it resulting in the 10-game suspension. Just call it bad boy luck. But it's a part of things going wrong early on in the season. Which translated for this team means MOTIVATION GALORE.
Then, there are a few slow start veteran batters here, who haven't yet totally heated up. Maybe the Mets management not breaking camp with any of their youngest ST hot hitting players was a slow start factor too. It did not help really because it sort of broke "ST momentum" that had been established. Just a series of EGAD that really isn't all that unusual for any MLB team to have happen earlier on.
The key here is to reaffirm footing, see what's going well in Syracuse, and make the necessary adjustments to put the team back on the "express train track." Maybe also take a look at pitchers secondary best pitch. Making sure that it is optimal. The hitting will become consistent soon I know.
Cooking now in Syracuse
Like you stated TB, Zach Muckenhirn (lefty) may be one guy to watch now. He started a game that they needed him to in Syracuse, and he did quite well actually. He is a 28 year old who used to be a starter not so long ago.
Someone to keep an eye on in AAA MetsLand this "Z-Muck."
This team is lucky to have lefty Joey Lucchesi back whole again, and doing well in the Mets rotation. But they need a SECOND consistent lefty starter to go with Joey. I am not certain where lefty Josh Walker stands now, or if he is out injured. His Syracuse stats have not changed much lately I have noticed, not certain as to why. But I find Josh a possibility perhaps by second half for either starting or relieving. I think that they said he had upped his fastball to 94 mph as well, which is good.
Not sure why Denyi Reyes was sent back down to Syracuse. Maybe a numbers crunch thing, not certain. But I like Denyi in the pen a lot.
I am delighted that BD Ronny Mauricio (now age 22) is doing really well hitting (.345 BA, with 6 HR's). I could see him maybe moving 2B Jeff McNeil back out to LF, and strengthening the Mets batting lineup in this way. Jeff's a determined winner, who has the talent to play anywhere in the field.
As for Mark Vientos, he is batting .347 with also six HR's and a .443 OBP. I'd leave Brett Baty on Mets third base for now. Let Brett get really settled in there, and then consider Mark Vientos to share Mets DH with Daniel Vogelbach, despite both being right-handed batters go with the hot hand there. Then consider Mark for utility backup at first and third bases, along with utility infielder Luis Guillorme.
Mark Vientos, starting catcher! Man, I like it! But would he? Hmm.
Vogelbach is a lefty
ReplyDeleteLMAO, Mr GM ! Vogelbach is a lefty,so much for your blabber
ReplyDeleteAbner, kind of the extra base hit, a/k/a Abner Doubleday. Blabber? May I counter with bluster, Buster?
ReplyDeleteVery witty TB
ReplyDeleteVogelbach is hitting right now. He sees Mauricio and Vientos coming I bet. No more Eskimo Pies for Daniel.
Mack Ade:
ReplyDeleteI concur on the young gun fielders and DH. It was really just common sense coming out of ST. It was right there.
Then they all go down. Oh no.
So why do you think this happened Mack?
Maybe makes team look bad to have brought in so many trade vets/FA signings who are not as promising as the three kids.
Brilliant is what brilliant does.