Paul Articulates – A tall mound to climb

After making more significant investments in the team during the off-season, Mets owner Steve Cohen must be wondering, “What does it take?”  The starting rotation for the Mets was devastated by injury and suspension this April, first losing Jose Quintana for the season before it started, then losing Justin Verlander before his first start.  Carlos Carrasco did not last long, pitching in only three games before he hit the IL.  Then it was Max Scherzer’s turn, going short, skipping a turn, coming back, then getting suspended for 10 games in a bizarre exchange with notorious umpire Phil Cuzzi.

The heralded depth of the starting rotation has not lived up to its billing.  Tylor Megill has been good, and posted 3 early wins but David Peterson has not found the expected success in his chances in the rotation. Jose Butto was called up for an interim start and pitched very well, but his second time up was not quite as good.  Joey Lucchesi looked great on his first turn back but has not been able to repeat that gem.

According to Gary Cohen in last night’s broadcast the Mets’ starting pitchers this year have given up more home runs in April than any Mets team since the 1960’s. Their entire staff is sporting a 4.64 ERA and has given up a NL-leading 46 home runs so far.  This is not what we expected before the season started, and Mets fans are desperate to see that familiar strong pitching return.  

Hope was on the horizon, as it stopped raining long enough to get the 10 games in to end Scherzer’s suspension, and with Verlander performing successfully in a rehab start at AA we looked forward to seeing the two aces back to back in a series against a very beatable Detroit Tigers team.

With a dull thud, Max Scherzer returned to give up six runs in four innings on an array of very ineffective pitches.  Rumor has it that Carrasco is close to coming back but he has not been effective in any single outing in 2023.  We’re not counting on him to stop the avalanche.  Kodai Senga has had some capable outings, but has not dominated hitters.  He may still be adjusting to the baseball used in this league, but while he is the opponents are pushing his ERA up to 4.15.

So where do we go from here?  The bullpen has been remarkable so far, and has weathered the short starts by almost every starting pitcher (6 or less innings in 30 of 31 games).  The hitting has not been too bad, with the team scoring 141 runs which is good for 6th best in the National League.  However it has been sporadic.  As a team, the Mets’ .241 batting average is the worst in the NL East.  

The runs have been scoring with timely hits, which is not something a team can count on sustaining for the season.  Francisco Lindor, for example is struggling most of the time at the plate with a .217 batting average, but he has hit when it really counts.  His 24 RBI are second to Pete Alonso on the team, and 6th best in the NL.

A solution does not come immediately to mind.  Starting pitching does not grow fast.  There are some talented folks moving up through the minor leagues, but they are not refined enough to dominate major league lineups.  Their contribution will likely be to prop up a tired relief core that has been overworked during the first full month of the regular season.  

The hitting should come around, as there are many accomplished players on the team.  The infusion of youngsters Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez will pay off later in the year as they get comfortable with the pitching – Baty seems to already be there.  

This is not meant to be a doomsday post, as there is plenty of season left to right this ship.  Mets fans were spoiled last year by a team that found a way to keep winning from April through August, so there was not too much to be disappointed about.  This year’s team is giving us a very different look, so it is tough to watch games like this Detroit series or the recent Washington series.  There may be plenty of wins left in the 2023 tank, but the pitching needs to turn around for that to happen.