Much has been written about the pitching woes facing the New York Mets. We all know that the staff was devastated by injuries, losing starter Jose Quintana, then Justin Verlander, then Max Scherzer (twice), and Carlos Carrasco. In the pen, Diaz was lost for the season and a handful of pitchers have needed time off. We know that and we accept that today’s game is riddled with pitching injuries. That is why the Mets spent as much as they did in the off season to try to build a deep staff.
But lurking below the surface, there is more wrong with the pitching staff this year than just injuries and suspensions. Despite positives like Kodai Senga, the April performance of the bullpen and the positive showing by Tylor Megill, this staff is wallowing in the bottom of the league in almost every relevant pitching statistic. Let me show you what I mean:
ERA: the Mets 4.78 is 2nd worst in the NL and 6th worst in MLB.
WHIP: the Mets 1.38 is 5th worst in the NL and tied for 8th worst in MLB.
HRs against: the Mets have given up 60 HRs in 44 games, good for worst in the NL and 4th worst in MLB.
Walks: 168 free passes are worst in the NL and tied for 4th worst in MLB
Hit Batsmen: 28 plunks by Mets pitchers is worst in the NL and tied for 3rd worst in MLB.
Stolen bases allowed: The Mets’ 0.84 per game is 3rd worst in the NL and 7th worst in MLB.
These are not statistics to be proud of. They all lead to pressure on the offense and with a team batting average of .240, the offense is not delivering. When the staff is giving up almost 5 runs per game and the offense is not producing, it is very frustrating. Justin Verlander said it well the other night, “We’re all frustrated”. Unfortunately, frustrated baseball players tend to press and that impacts their results even more. This is an awful spiral.
So what happened to the pitching? They still have Jeremy Hefner as pitching coach and I thought he did an admirable job with the staff last year. Yes, they have missed starts by their aces, which doesn’t help the stats, but one could counter by saying that when they have pitched their numbers have not looked like historical averages.
Theory 1: Mets pitchers have been affected by the new rules. This is mostly false, because the entire league is facing the same rule changes and a staff that is traditionally amongst the best is now amongst the worst. One piece holds true though. The Mets staff has never been that good holding runners on first, and with the new rules governing throw-overs and the slightly shorter base path due to larger bags it becomes a large disadvantage.
Theory 2: Last year’s strong bullpen had career years and they are really not that good. This is also mostly false, as Ottavino has been strong again this year (except the last few games), Robertson is pitching better than ever, and Steven Nogosek has come into his own. Drew Smith is better than last year and Brooks Raley has been a nice addition.
Theory 3: With the initial injuries, there was too much pressure on the replacements. I don’t accept this one either. Yes, David Peterson has lost his way and probably feels like he is destroying a golden opportunity. But generally, athletes that get their shot are more than happy to take it and the ones that make it this far typically want the ball in tough situations. Tylor Megill doesn’t look ruffled. Jose Butto had a great start on his first call-up. Senga hasn’t out-performed expectations until last night, but his issue seems to be learning to throw familiar pitches with a new ball.
Theory 4: The curse of Seth Lugo. For years he wanted to be a starting pitcher, but the Mets just said, “We have enough starters – you’re great in the pen.” Seth got his chance in San Diego and he is doing well. He could have started for the Mets this season given the conditions. Maybe this is his Karma lashing out at the team.
So I’m out of plausible theories. Last night was another befuddling example – Senga finally threw like the guy from Nippon Professional Baseball that everyone coveted. After his six innings, every reliever that followed watched runs cross the plate. Six runs on 7 hits, six walks, seven stolen bases, and a hit by pitch is not the kind of relief outing that will help this team win.
Jeremy Hefner is going to have to do a lot of work in a short time to maintain employment. The staff needs to get right very quickly.
I have faith in Verlander, Max, Senger, Carrasco, and Megill as the rotation going forward.
ReplyDeleteKnowing Wodrow won't agree, I will stick with the biggest problem is middle relief.
Walker had nice first outing
Hopefully we will see Lavender soon
Hitting! Let’s hope Alvparez and Baty develop and Vientos and Mauricio get their shots and make it.
ReplyDeleteY/day's game was an all time classic but it can be ruined quickly with a loss today. The kids gave us a spark we desperately needed now lets complete the call ups with Mauricio pls.
ReplyDeletePressure was building, dangerously, and two kids administered high blood pressure medicine last night.
ReplyDeleteOne can hope the starters get back to normal - there are no fall backs.
Mack, Dedniel Nunez could be a possible, if he gets his sudden wildness under control.
Cool Mack Aid
ReplyDeleteI concur with you totally as most will, that if Verlander, Scherzer, Senga, Carrasco, and Megill all stay healthy the remainder of this season, then these NY Mets have a very good shot at the 2023 Playoffs.
However, what happens if say two go down long term again? Then what?
We need some ideas circulating and tossed out there on this.
Let me begin...
1. I think if everything went terrific, that the Mets could see maybe Nathan Lavender and Mike Vasil (both are 23) second half of this season sometime. It's possible because these two MiLB starters really do impress me.
2. Perhaps Josh Walker could be stretched out into a starter. It's a bit of a leap here, I do realize though since he may excel as a reliever here.
3. Trades anyone?
Maybe get someone like a Sonny Gray (RSP) in here. His stat sheet so far this season is very solid, and he hasn't had an injury in two seasons, which is good. He's a young 33 years old. His career number overall are good as well. He might be attainable via a trade here.
The Mets could probably do well making a couple of trades anyway, to unclog their OF a bit more. Plus, there could be interest in someone like catcher Omar Narvaez (now walking some) or infielder Luis Guillorme (who would benefit by having a chance to start elsewhere), to name two. There are other player possibilities as well.
But maybe one more solid starter from a trade might be wise because we have now seen what things get like here with three of the Mets starters out hurt at the same one time.
It ain't pretty. Bodies everywhere. Night of The Living Dead-ish one could almost say.
NYM winning
ReplyDeleteGame in the bottom of the eighth with the Mets up 3-2.
This would be a solid win because this Taj Bradley Tampa Bay top rook starter is very, very good. Megill pitched well. Alonso (sweet 16) blast. Three straight games. Pham multiple hit game. He's alive! Vogelback lifted from game, Cahna in for him. Daniel off to Jenny Craig for dinner before it closes.
Maybe One Other Pickup Pitcher Idea
ReplyDeleteI mentioned the idea of possibly attaining Sonny Grey as an insurance starter here. This isn't like the Yankees here, and he might adjust fine to these Mets.
My other idea is ex-Met Chris Bassitt on the Toronto Blue Jays. He's having a really good 2023 there with a 5-2 record, 3.05 ERA, and a 1.01 WHIP. Looks like he could have himself as good or better a season than he had here in 2022.
I think that I underestimated Chris heading into the off season.
It's a thought though.