But first - monumental win for the Mets.
Mighty Mark Vientos breaks the Mets suffocating scorelessness syndrome with an electric 2 run shot that the announcers thought was just a deep fly ball. Those of us who really follow Vientos knew it GONE IMMEDIATELY.
Then, down by 3 in the 9th, fellow youth Franky Alvarez launches a 3 run shot, a cannon shot off the facing of the second deck. How do you spell EXIT VELOCITY?
Then, in the 10th down 2 runs again, Pete (not to be outdone by Da Yoots) launches a 3 massive, majestic run shot. 8-7 win, in a game where Kodai Senga threw 6 brilliant innings and fanned 12.
WOW WOW WOW. (Did I say WOW enough? Not really.)
I have long advocated for the kids to play, not the washed-up vets - and two of them made stunning statements Wednesday night.
The season seemed to rapidly be FLUSHING down the drain, but the kids had the sink stoppers, and by the end, FLUSHING was alive for the Mets once more in 2023. Pivotal moment.
The Magic Was Back - and the kids?
They Brung It, as we used to say in Queens.
A big tip of my cap especially to Mark and to his proud Papa.
Now on to my regularly scheduled article.
You can never have enough good pitching.
This (Diaz debacle) is how a season gets torpedoed in March.
We'll have Edwin back, hopefully 100% and with trumpet, to anchor the bullpen again in 2024.
But Max may or may not be gone - but they still owe him $43 million for 2024! Yikes!
Justin will be...even older. But, if he pitches 140 innings in 2024, while making $43MM, he is vested in 2025 for $35 million at age 42. Yikes!
Quintana is under contract (for $13 million) for 2024, then gone. Yikes!
Carrasco? Adios after 2023. What a relief that will be. Carlos Fiasco.
It all sounds like a real mess in 2024, huh, not to mention 2023.
So who the heck is down in the Mets minors to help in 2024?
After all, Tom Szapucki is not in the organization anymore to anchor a sagging rotation - but, of course, I jest. Not sure that Szapucki could anchor a rowboat without hurting himself, frankly.
So, who aren't realistic starter candidates for OD 2024?
Matt Allan, for one. He needs to stop shopping at Surgeries R Us, Tom Szapucki told me. I agree. Figure Matt for mid-2025 at the earliest, if all goes right.
Blade Tidwell - too green, ran into a truly bad outing recently, so his blade will need more sharpening. Mid-2024? 2025?
Calvin Ziegler - his injury this year pushed his arrival to perhaps 2025. Starter or reliever, who knows?
Junior Santos - just too hittable to be a Mets starter, I fear. Allowed 303 hits allowed in 272 innings since 2019. May end up as a pen arm?
Christian Scott - too hittable so far, too. Injury issues had him at 5 total innings in mid-May. Time will tell.
Tony Dibrell - getting clocked in AAA after his return from TJS. Unlikely? We'll see.
Humberto Mejia - 6 AAA starts already, but 11 HRs in 35 innings? NAH!
Others might sprout and be viable for 2025, but no one is jumping off anyone’s radar screen at the moment.
So, who IS A 2024 CANDIDATE (besides Trump and Biden, both of whom are a little older than Max and Justin)?
I can think of two hurlers for the Mets rotation in April 2024:
MIKE VASIL:
(As I wrote this:) 30 AA innings, 4 walks, 41 Ks? 2.70 ERA, 0.70;WHIP? Oh, yeah. Maybe this season. Definitely 2024 for the 2021 8th rounder.
DOMINIC HAMEL:
31 innings, 4.65 ERA, 36 Ks, with 13 walks in April in AA, but just 1 in 15 innings in May for the 2021 3rd rounder.
He is scuffling in May, though, to a 7.04 ERA. 4 HRs allowed. You pitch in the zone, better hitters in the high minors can make you pay.
Still, give Dom a full season of 2023 innings. and he is very possibly in my Mets opening day rotation. More likely mid 2024, it seems, but time will tell.
That's it. Two starters.
Stay healthy, you two. We're REALLY gonna need ya.
A possible third?
Tyler Stuart (a 6’9” righty) is pitching very well in Brooklyn, but let's see in a month or so. So far, 26 innings, 34 Ks, 1.40 ERA for the 2022 6th rounder.
Not super-encouraging overall, in terms of near term starter pipeline quantity.
But if both Vasil and Hamel are ready for OPENING DAY 2024, with Stuart on their heels, THAT WILL BE SIMPLY AMAZING. (Vasil might just be ready sooner).
P.S.
Saw that Kumar Rocker needs Tommy John surgery and is done until probably 2025. Good call to skip him.
SOMETIMES, BASEBALL IS TRULY A NON-CONTACT SPORT:
Another 6'9" Brooklyn Cyclones pitcher, Jace Beck, has thrown 11 innings through Tuesday. That's 33 recorded outs.
23 of those 33 by strikeout. Must be THROWIN' NASTY.
Plus 12 walks. So, he has 35 combined walks and Ks in 11 innings. A very elevated rate of combined Ks and BBs per 9 innings. Never a dull moment.
Bryce Montes de Oca said, "Hey, when I'm healthy, I can do that, too. Nah, on second thought, even I can't do that. I ain't that tall, either."
Anyway, get well soon, Bryce. And Matt. And Calvin. And all you other injured hurlers. We need you all.
Funny, though, that Beck in 62 career innings has walked 51 but hit just one batter. Maybe batters are standing outside the batter's box to not get hit.
But...it sure does make one wonder what they've been thinking, tying up such huge money in free agent pitchers, and trading several minors pitchers over the past few Cohen years. This 2024 draft, pitching, pitching, pitching - and more pitching.
In case you were wondering: 23 year old Kumar Rocker in High A ball?
17 innings, 3.58, 4 walks, 29 Ks. Seems healthy. Could have been a 2024 pitcher for the Mets.
HEY, TAKE A WALK, PAL
Lastly, despite Mike Vasil's extremely low walk exploits in AA, Binghamton hurlers walked a high 100 batters in their first 21 games.
Brooklyn? A higher 102 walks allowed in 19 games.
St Lucie? An even higher 133 walks in 23 games, nearly 6 per game, which might be why they are 5-18.
Syracuse is averaging 4 walks per contest, so they are the best of a very wild bunch. But subsequently, on Friday night, both Syracuse and their opponent walked 11 times. So maybe they aren’t the best after all.
Perhaps this is a factor:
(Source: Dodger Blue article)
The electronic strike zone will be used in all 30 Class AAA parks in 2023, sources told ESPN, seemingly another significant step toward the implementation of the technology at the big league level in the near future.
The Automatic Balls and Strikes system, commonly referred to as ABS, will be deployed in two different ways. Half of the Class AAA games will be played with all of the calls determined by an electronic strike zone, and the other half will be played with an ABS challenge system similar to that used in professional tennis.
EVERYONE LOVES A GOOD ERA
Thru Friday:
Syracuse: 5.12
Binghamton: 4.50
Brooklyn: 4.48
St Lucie: 5.21
Rather inflated, which is rather deflating.
FAN CLUB MEMBER:
20th rounder in 2021 and part time Brooklyn SS Justin Guerrera is 5 for 36 with 24 Ks. Now, 24 Ks in 36 ABs is A LOT. I just saw that he was released.
A career .206 minors hitter with a nice 19 HRs in 464 career at bats, the impressive HR rate from the 2021 20th rounder didn’t help since the K rate was so high.
In case you were wondering, a guy with a similar last name, Vlad’s cousin Greg Guerrero, who was signed several years ago to a sizable international bonus, is a free agent this year. He was often injured. Vlad had all the talent. Think of Hank Aaron and Tommy Aaron - kind of like that level of disparity. How much of that injury history led to his failure in the lower minors is unclear to me.
SEASON IS IN GRAVE JEOPARDY
Why? The team has a ghastly 4.82 ERA through 36 contests and Scherzer is not healthy. Maybe Carrasco, who in AA on Tuesday threw 3 innings of one run ball, will soon help. Or not. Otherwise, the minors’ best Mets available pitching is close encounters of the Yacabonis kind (I.e., marginal). You don’t make the playoffs with marginal.
Alvarez has clearly ARRIVED. 2 homers nailed Nido to a dugout seat.
Bring up Vientos and Mauricio. Now. Roll the dice.
PEROZA POWER
I was disappointed that 3B Jose Peroza, the Mets minors hottest hitter after July 4 in 2022, started this year on the IL for an unspecified reason.
He started out slow when he finally returned at 3 for 21. Then he got hot.
Then, Tuesday, he drilled THREE HOMERS and added a single in 4 ABs. Six months younger than Baty, I expect him to keep hammering. A future major leaguer, on a team with little room for another infielder.
Promote Mark and Ronny to the Mets. Promote Jose to AAA. Let’s Go.
ESCOBAR RESURRECTION?
After a horrible spring training, Eduardo started out equally as bad. .120 average over the first 3 weeks.
Finished? Not necessarily.
Perhaps not at all.
Since April 20, EE is 9 for 21 with 5 RBIs.
He’s played a little outfield in his career. Get him in the line up more at 3rd, DH, of left field.
I still wonder if we completely messed up and not gone lesko and Porter instead of Jett and parada
ReplyDeleteAnd how could we not take a pitcher instead of Morabito
Has Escobar's uptick in performance have any relation to the promotion of Baty? Need to hit or sit the pine?
ReplyDeleteVientos' promotion appears to have gone well last night. Let's get Mauricio up. The bottom half of the line-up - Baty, Vientos, Mauricio and Alverez.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. That is and will be the problem going forward. Age on the MLB and lack of depth in the MILB.
Nice group of stuff here Thomas
ReplyDeleteTidwell had 5 scoreless innings last night, fanning 8 while walking 5
Better
I would have drafted pitchers instead of Jett and Morabito. Parada I am good with.
ReplyDeleteSteveM, I agree with you - a lot needs to click in Mets minors with pitching to avoid a bad situation in years to come.
ReplyDeleteMack, great to see Tidwell regroup that much. Just gotta tighten up that control.
ReplyDeleteAnd if automated balls and strikes seems pretty "out there", I read that the Chinese allowed AI to self-fly a low orbit satellite for a while - the AI (without human involvement) chose two places it would direct its flight path to, one in India and the other in Japan. (Source: Jim Geraghty) So, automated balls and strikes are neanderthal stuff compared to that Chinese action.
ReplyDeleteAI has been writing my posts for years
DeleteMack, I have had ALOI writing mine. Artificial Lack Of Intelligence.
ReplyDeleteIf you have not as yet looked up...
ReplyDeleteRSP Mike Vasil on youtube, please go do. There is a video there where you can see this young man's mechanics and natural tenacity when he pitches.
I have seen a lot of excellent NYM starters when young pitch. Mike is right there with them. He's got "it", whatever "it" is.
Going with the kids.
ReplyDeleteIt's just common sense to me really. Sure, it is a gamble the first time a team brings anyone up to the bigs. There are jitters for that young player and some doubt for us, I am certain. But once they get by all horse dribble and settle in, then their own talent and confidence can lead their way for them.
Play them "Buck From Yak". Allow them to break into this league and make it their own well deserved home. Some come up and right away boom, there is really no adjustment period for them. Others need a bit longer to feel that they really do belong here. They do. It's their lifetime dream and confronting that expectation. But a dream that we all wish we once had.
As fans, patience is king with these younger players.
My very best example here, would be when Nolan Ryan came up a wild armed righty reliever and took out two beer concession vendors in Shea Stadium's green mezzanine section, all in just one ball game.
But look at who Nolan Ryan (the first MLB player ever to make $1,000,000 in a single season) became after the Mets gave up on him mainly for fan insurance reasons alone.
The additions of Francisco, Brett, Mark, and hopefully soon Ronnie could be the very impetus that ignites the entire NY Mets team, carrying them into the 2023 Playoffs.
Ya' never know.
It's a "Rocky Balboa" type syndrome. And even the established veterans can catch it, because they remember too just what it is like to be "new" to MLB.
12 strikeouts in just 6 innings
ReplyDeleteKodai Senga.
I think that he may be getting used to the size of the MLB baseball.
Just a hunch here.
No prognostication here on my part really.
I forgot to mention...
ReplyDeleteThat Josh Walker is up here now too. A big strong lefty reliever. One which we needed badly here too. He's the real deal.
Next "Big Thing"...
Nathan Lavender, a lefty starter in the making down in Syracuse at current. 6'3"/210 age 23 from Hudson Hawke, IL.
Syracuse stats:
1.76 innings, 11 games in relief, 5 saves, 15.1 IP/26 SO/.91 WHIP
Just a wild-hair hunch that Nathan will be converted to a starter in due time.
Great to see Walker get a shot. A long time coming.
ReplyDelete