Paul Articulates – It’s not over

There are a lot of New York Mets fans that are upset now, having seen the front office wave the white flag on a season that began with such promise.  When you send away an ace and a closer and there are more on the horizon before the deadline, it’s like knocking over your King in chess.

But it is not over.  Maybe 2023 is over, because realistically the Mets not only have to make up the 6.5 games to the last wild card spot, but they also have to leap over four other teams that are above them and trying to overtake that last spot.  Some of those teams will fail and drop down; but probably not all of them.

The reason I say it is not over is because there were two tactics in play in the Steve Cohen regime.  One tactic was to build the player development organization into a world class machine that could pump out talented, well trained players to sustain a dominant MLB team.  The other was to buy some short term A-list players to try to win in the short term.  The second tactic failed, not because of design, but because of the players involved.  Some got hurt, some underperformed, and the inconsistency ruined the winning attitude that teams need to go on a roll.

Tactic number one is still in play and is actually being bolstered by the movement of some of the short term A-listers.  We have very strong prospects in the system as you have read on this site; and now we are adding to that list with acquisitions from the “sell-off” of the A-List assets.  Sure, there are no sure things and some of these prospects won’t reach their lofty potential.  But some will, and the Mets will be all the better for it.  They will have team-controlled, talented and enthusiastic young baseball players competing for a shot at being an every-day performer on an exciting team.  Guys like Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos are just the first wave and they are learning the ropes this year.  Others are a year or two away but when they move up you will see speed, power, and pitching that will bring you back from the emotional lows you are feeling today.

We have to respect the attempt at a short term push to win.  It cost the owner a lot of money that is now benefiting players wearing different uniforms.  But is shows the outright commitment to winning baseball in Flushing.  When the team gets there, it will be worth the wait.  So keep your Mets hats – you will wear them proudly in a season in the not-too-distant future.  In fact, keep your Lindor or Alonso or Nimmo jerseys.  They are not going anywhere and will lead the parade of underclassmen into battle.

Mets fans are strong and handle adversity well.  Stick with it.

Tom Brennan - Baby Steps

 

Mark The Small Sample Man

Mark Vientos in his last 7 games, since being recalled:

.333/.391/.571.

Small sample.

Nice, small sample, huh?

Alvarez started very slowly in 2023 with the Mets. 

Small sample. 

Followed by a large post-early-sample population of at bats filled with thunder.

Mets, let small samples turn into large, post-sample successes.

Play the kids.

Reese Kaplan -- As Queen Would Sing It, "Another One Bites the Dust"

There are good days, there are bad days and then there are days you didn't honestly see coming.  For the New York Mets this end of the trading season came as a bit of a surprise though it was clear to everyone watching the team that they were not destined for the postseason and beginning anew made more sense than it would be to watch stars walk away without any compensation whatsoever at year's end.

It all started with Eduardo Escobar and the return for him was more about losing a player whose role had been worn out in New York than it did about the actual talent coming back to the Mets.  With the team agreeing to pay down his salary, it was more about buying a higher level prospect from the minors than it was about an equitable return.  The money spent on Escobar was mostly a lost cause anyway, so getting anything instead of nothing made sense.

Then came the David Robertson move.  The reaction to the deal was more of, "Woe is me!" than any understanding about the rationale for the transaction taking place at all.  If you look long and hard about what has gone right for the Mets this year, David Robertson would be at the top of the list.  He was shoved into closer duty when Edwin Diaz took a health-related pass on the 2023 season and was only signed to a single year deal.  

At age 38 this season he was pitching well better than expected but you don't build a five year plan around baseball senior citizens who likely would be gone at year's end with nothing in return.  You surely weren't going to make him a qualified offer to jump his pay nearly double what he's making now so it was a matter of getting the best you could while you had the option.  The two hitters the Mets picked up from the lower level Marlins minor leagues both were hitting well and seemed a fairly equitable exchange of assets.

So while the Escobar and Roberston deals made sense (at least to me), the surprising one was yet to come.  

It was well reported that Max Scherzer was demanding to speak to the front office about the Robertson deal as he is a fiercely competitive ballplayer and getting rid of the closer everyone coveted certainly seemed like the club was simply throwing in the towel.  It had also been rumored that Scherzer would waive his no-trade clause for the right deal, yet with the inconsistent (for Scherzer, anyway) level at which he'd been pitching in 2023 everyone assumed it would be the older and much more productive Justin Verlander who would be the next big chip to fall.

Apparently we were wrong.  It turned out to be Max Scherzer along with $22 million bucks ensuring his 2024 option was exercised.  The Mets will now be without the services of the multi-award winning Scherzer and can only hope that the highly regarded albeit diminutive baby-brother Acuna turns into the next second baseman for the Mets as Jeff McNeil's future is more likely in the outfield with Tommy Pham and Mark Canha likely next heading to the airport.  Starling Marte might have been in the same situation if his health allowed, though the return for him would be greatly undervalued comparing the 2022 version with the 2023 diminished output.  

So that leads great speculation about what is the next shoe to drop?  Will it be Verlander?  Will it be Pham?  Will it be Canha?  Is there a taker (other than BIlly Eppler) for Vogelbach?  What about Carrasco?  What about Jose Quintana?  Right now the already questionable pitching staff is readying for more of David Peterson or Tylor Megill or Jose Butto or Joey Lucchesi.  

None of them are as good as Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander but perhaps could hold a candle to the 2023 rendition of Carlos Carrasco.  Jose Quintana to me is a modestly priced player off to a late start with the club.  Given the likely vacancies in the 2024 rotation it would not be as smart to peddle him away when competent southpaws are not exactly a dime a dozen.

The big selloff I'd advocated to happen has indeed started...they are about halfway there.  How much more is yet to come is anyone's guess but better to take full measures rather than half efforts towards the desired reinforcement of the minor league ranks.  If a few outfielders leave and Jeff McNeil realizes he's out there to stay might just mean a glimpse in August and September of Ronny Mauricio.  Mark Vientos is still here and playing a bit more regularly than the last misspent lineup construction.  Yes, things are new and might be a bit uglier before they get prettier, but ugly and new beats tired and old every day of the week.   

Mack - A Fond Farewell

 

Good morning.

I have retired from Mack's Mets. 

Everybody has to some day. The alternative is to pass like my old friend and nemesis, Joe D from Metsmerized.

I hope the site goes on. Hell, Ford survived without Henry, Perdue Chickens without Frank, and Carvel Ice Cream without Tom.

Who knows. Maybe I will stop by and guest post once something happens positive enough to write about. I already am thinking of writing my thoughts on what the Mets accomplished during the trading period that ends August 1st.

I want to thank all the writers I have worked with here. From David Rubin to David Jacks and all the non-Davids in between. 

I also want to thank the two that have stuck with me... or been stuck with me... the longest... Reese Kaplan and Tom Brennan. 

I additionally want to thank John From Albany and Paul Articulates who have helped me administrate this site.

A big thanks also goes out to the Mets affiliate people I have worked with for almost two decades. The daily press releases they send me have made my writing life much easy.

Lastly, I send love out to all the readers... Gary, Eddie, Gus, Zozo, and so many more. Even that anonymous guy. I love ya all.

Pushing 80 and writing an occasional post is one thing.

Pushing 80 and having to administrate and write a daily post at the same time me and my family have gone though six cancer operations... well...

It's time.

It's been an honor to serve you all.

Mack

Mike's Mets - Turn the Page

 

By Mike Steffanos

The Mets turning their focus to the future was the only logical move left. But the future depends on getting better at developing some kids into major league ballplayers.

As someone who has endured his share of ups and downs over the years, I've had experience with what comes next after a big disappointment. The hardest part is understanding that you've put a lot of effort into something that won't reward that hard work. Trying harder won't repair what has proven to be unfixable. It's time to coldly assess what went wrong and then decide what's next. It's all too easy, if ultimately completely useless, to fall into the "what if" trap, or simply wallow in self-pity until you get disgusted enough with yourself to get back out into the world and chart a new direction. It can be a bit liberating to finally admit that something that has been going south for a while is finally a lost cause, but it's also quite a blow to be around at the death of an enterprise into which you placed your hard work and greatest hopes. Therefore, I can't help but feel some empathy for Billy Eppler and his front office as midnight has fallen on the 2023 season that began with great hopes and massive outlays of the owner's cash.

It's been clear for a while that the New York Mets aren't good enough to fight their way back into a Wild Card slot. Every tease where the club showed signs that they just might be able to get back on track has been followed immediately by conclusive evidence that they can't. In May, they won the last two games of the series against a Rays team that was still playing really well, then swept the Cleveland Guardians with their offense finally seeming to click into high gear. But this was followed immediately by a road trip that saw the Mets lose 2 of 3 to both the Cubs and the Rockies. Since then, this brief boom followed by deflating bust scenario has played out repeatedly. With 60 games left in the season and still 6 games south of .500, it was time for Steve Cohen, Billy Eppler, and everyone else in a decision-making role to make the only logical decision left to be made.

David Robertson was clearly the most valuable piece the Mets had to sell: a proven late-inning reliever enjoying a good season who was on an expiring contract. Last year, Robertson was dealt from the Cubs to the Phillies for Ben Brown, a minor-league starting pitcher in High-A at the time of the deal. The Cubs promoted Brown to Double-A immediately. After dominating at that level early this year, Brown was promoted to Triple-A, where he has been a bit up and down, while still considered a top prospect for Chicago. There has been a perception that the Mets might see a similar return for Robertson: an attractive prospect relatively close to the majors.

Then late Thursday night, while the Mets were in the midst of a lengthy rain delay with the Nationals, the word came out that the Mets had traded Robinson for two rookie-level position prospects. One of the two, an 18-year-old infielder named Marco Vargas, is considered an exciting prospect with some real potential. The other, 19-year-old catcher Ronald Hernandez, has some promise but will likely slot in a bit lower on Mets prospects lists. Still, any young player in the complex league is miles away from seeing a big league field, with the potential that plenty can go wrong and he might never make it.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Tom Brennan - Temper Your Expectations

Ronny Mauricio 

Vet Luke Voit crushing it in Syracuse: 119 at bats, 13 HR, 33 RBI.   Vet Abraham Almonte 11 HR, 26 RBI in 77 Syracuse ABs.  Add together: 196 at bats, 24 HR, 59 RBIs.

Meanwhile, Ronny Mauricio 9 HR, 23 RBI in 161 June and July Syracuse at bats. Not nearly as good.

It seems the INTL League has turned into the PCL, a hitter’s delight with inflated hitting stats.

So, I think people lusting to see Mauricio need to temper their expectations. 

And does no team want either of the slugging duo of Voit or Almonte at the deadline?

METS 13-8 IN LAST 21 GAMES

Not bad.

We’re 36-46, now 49-54.

With the next 5 games against the lowly Nats and KC, that 13-8 could possibly turn into 18-8. Which could have folks wondering if the Mets should have been selling at all.

Reese Kaplan -- First There Was Nuttin' Then Came Sumthin'

Do you ever look over a neighbor and notice the new shiny car, swimming pool, paint job or other conspicuous thing they have done to beautify and improve what they control?  That's how Mets fans must feel today seeing the ongoing changes throughout the other 29 baseball teams but NOTHING happening in Queens.  There's an old saying attributed to someone who is a little smarter than the majority of us:

So what exactly are the Mets planning to do differently to try to elicit different results either for the remainder of 2023 or for baseball next season and beyond?  The last time any of us looked the majority of the starting rotation is haphazard at best.  The bullpen seems to confuse fireman with firestarter.  The hitters are all being held at bay by both good pitchers and bad.  The injuries are taking their toll. Surely team management MUST have a plan to do...something, right?

Thus far the answer is wrong.  

Now to be as fair as possible, Billy Eppler is not operating under the fiscal constraints Sandy Alderson and others faced during the Wilpon era.  Steve Cohen is not averse to spending money, although one might question the value of the folks he entrusts to evaluate and recommend how that money should be spent.  So cash flow is not the issue.

Billy Eppler speaking for the front office has said that the club is looking to build its future internally and as such the dispatching of highly regarded prospects to bring in new talent is not in the cards.  If what he said is actually true, then the team has already confessed they are not going to be buyers of talent as they have not a whole lot to offer up as sellers to bring back current help.  

So that would make you wonder about what they can do as sellers?  It would seem that the way to reinforce the quality of prospects in the minor leagues is to go get some.  The way to do that is to trade away folks on expiring contracts or whose presence isn't pushing you into the promised land of pennant contention.  You all know the names already -- Pham, Vogelbach, Narvaez, Robertson, Carrasco and others.  Even Starling Marte and Adam Ottavino could be in play, though putting Brooks Raley on the trading block would only underscore that issue with poor judgment from Eppler.  Ditto Jose Quintana.

Imagine everyone's shock to hear that the Mets flew the surrender flag up the pole Thursday evening and announced that David Robertson was on his way to Miami for a pair of highly regarded but very low level minor leaguers.  Almost no one believed the Mets would take any constructive steps prior to the August 1st deadline, so when the story first emerged people thought it was Internet gobbledy gook.  

While no one is disputing the value of veteran David Robertson, it was pretty much a given that a high quality player would generate a decent return.  The infielder obtained was regarded more as a hitter and runner than glove magician while the catcher was the opposite as a switch hitting catcher with a rocket arm but heretofore questionable offensive skills.  Both are hitting higher than anyone in the current Mets starting lineup, so the long game return could be considered fair.  Brooks Raley and/or Adam Ottavino will likely serve as Edwin Diaz's placeholders for the next few months.

We also know that the co-Aces of the starting rotation would fetch the biggest haul in return if you paid down some of the salary for the remainder of this year and part of next year.  However, between Carrasco, Scherzer and Verlander departing, you're banking on the rest of this year with the likes of David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Jose Butto and/or Joey Lucchesi as the rest of your starting rotation.  Winter of 2023 into 2024 would begin an earnest effort to bring in three quality starting pitchers as none of the above are going to replace what the departing arms could offer on a good day.  

Impatience is probably the most gnawing thing bothering Mets fans right now.  It's clear to everyone not named Eppler that the club is not contending in 2023.  A good businessman then plans ahead for 2024 instead of simply losing folks with no compensation come year's end.  Yet that thus far appears to be what the plan is and if so, it might even make people start yearning for even Sandy Alderson again. Still, give kudos to Eppler for looking past his personal long term relationship with Robertson to have taken a best-for-the-team step by initiating this phase of the great 2023 Mets dismantling.  

Tom Brennan - Search Party Out For Tylor Megill; Jeffry Rosa Rampage

“TYLOR, TYLOR!  WHERE ARE YOU?”

“Be on the alert for a missing male, Caucasian, 6’7”, 230, appears harmless, but may be dazed and confused. Hangs out on hills of dirt a lot. If you see him, immediately call 1-800-St-Cohen”.

Messrs. Scherzer and Verlander missed much time early in 2023, and their back up starter, Tylor Megill, nicely proceeded to go 5-2, 3.88 through May 18. The only disconcerting sign from the now-missing Tylor during that period was an elevated walk rate.

Then, he simply began to unravel.

In his next 6 outings, 25 innings, 28 runs allowed.

The reeling Megill was unsurprisingly demoted to AAA. Pitching against inferior hitters ought to get his head screwed on straight, again; that had to be the mindset of the FO.

Except in 21 innings in post-demotion AAA, 42 runners have been allowed, 24 runs scored…and just 8 Ks??? 

Just 8 of 102 AAA batters faced (8%) get fanned? 

This same guy fanned 59 AA and AAA batters in 40 innings just prior to his MLB debut in 2021. 59 of 164 batters faced (36%).

Clearly, that man on the mound recently is not Tylor Megill; clearly, the real one has gone missing. Clearly, someone needs to search for him.

Maybe it is not Tylor out there, but actually instead the bombarded and then released Dylan Bundy, dressed up in a Megill disguise, back on the mound as an impostor.

Let’s put up posters on utility poles, in hopes someone has seen him. 

We want the real Tylor Megill back. Not the impostor.

JEFFRY ROSA VS. ROGER MARIS

18 year old Mets outfielder in DSL is exploding. 

93 ABs, 9 doubles, THIRTEEN HRs, 32 RBIs. .323 average, rising fast.

Watch our, Roger Maris, Jeffry is gunning for ya.

Reese Kaplan -- While Baseball Does Real Business, the Mets Don't

Nearly 40 years ago Jimmy Buffett recorded a song entitled “Come Monday” which contained the chorus, “Come Monday, it will be alright...” It also contained, “Yes, it’s been quite a summer.”

This popular music entry came to mind when thinking about the soon to be finished trading season for 2023. Anyone who crosses from one team to another after August 1st will not be eligible to play in the post season (not that post season baseball has anything to do with the Mets, of course).

Now this year Billy Eppler opened the door a bit earlier than other general managers when he sent Eduardo Escobar geographically about as far away as you can banish a ballplayer short of forcing him onto one of the Asian ballclubs. That move seemed to signal the beginning of the end for the failed 2023 team as we now know it.

Then came the loud chorus, not of Jimmy Buffett, but of crickets as nothing else happened. Don’t get me wrong. It’s not as if all of baseball shut down. Other clubs actively traded other players in the hopes of improving this year or next, but Billy Eppler seems to think his minor league prospects for Escobard and his prepaid salary was quite enough, thank you.

Wednesday word filtered out that two noteworthy former New York Mets changed ballclubs for one another. Given that there’s nothing happening in Flushing other than the sound of toilets, Mets fans immediately jumped on this deal to give both the who won, who lost and why isn’t Eppler making any effort kind of beer-infused four-letter filled speeches.

First, let’s look at the deal in question. The Cleveland Guardians sent one of the pieces who helped land Francisco Lindor in New York — Amed Rosario — in his walk year to help the Los Angeles Dodgers fight to win a National League West pennant once again. In return, the Dodgers sent the man dubbed “Thor”, Noah Syndergaard, from his not-so-comfy-home at Dodger Stadium to see what he could do with the remainder of his overpaid 2023 season to the place where they built the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. 

Like Eppler, the Dodgers made the decision to pay down Syndergaard’s contract so that the marginal difference in salary obligations renders this deal financially negligible.

To many of us, Amed Rosario was the bigger infield piece that headed to Cleveland a few years back. After all, he had great baserunning speed and enough defensive reputation that it looked like he could be the shortstop of the future. By contrast, Andres Gimenez was regarded as a good glove/no bat kind of prospect. Gimenez surprised many folks by upping his offensive game though not to the level that would make headlines. Consequently the increasingly expensive free-agent-to-be Rosario made more sense to send packing.

The other side of the equation is even harder to process. Syndergaard has had a number of health issues during his career that both curtailed his aggregate stat sheet and sometimes left him pitching like a shell of his former self. However, if you look at cumulative numbers he’s got a winning record supported by more than a strikeout per inning pitched and a respectable if not stellar 3.65 ERA.

In 2023 for the Dodgers nothing has gone right for Thor. He’s leaving Los Angeles with a 1-4 record over 12 starts with a 7.16 ERA and his strkeout/walk ratio is ugly. As bad as Carlos Carrasco has been for the Mets this year, he’s a bonafide starting gem compared to the current version of Syndergaard.

In this particular deal there don’t appear to be winners on either side as Rosario is of short term benefit while Syndergaard needs to operate on past reputation to try to justify the deal happening at all. No, neither the Dodgers nor Guardians are going to be lighting celebratory fireworks over this trade.

Mets fans, of course, won’t be lighting anything except torches to accompany their pitchforks because for better or worse at least these two teams tried to take roster action. How about the Mets? What have they done...Bueller???

OPEN THREAD - BUY OR SELL?

Baseball Decision Time Is Upon Us

After a dissatisfying split with the Yankees, and a dissatisfying 33-47 stretch of 80 games, do the Mets buy?

If so, what? 

Sell? 

If, so, what?

And get what in return?

Have at it.

Tom Brennan - Matt Reynolds or Ronny Mo? Tidwell Terrific. Retaliate, Buck, YA WOOSIE.

Matt Reynolds pictured back around 2015.

FIRST OFF:

Mets needed to make a statement before the trade deadline.  They did…potential is greater than results.

Yesterday, I noted that if the Mets beat the Yanks Wednesday night, they then had the next seven with Washington and KC, and a case could be made to go for it. 

Two problems:

1) they came up small, again, when we needed BIG, and lost 3-1.

2) The “weak” Nats have the division’s best “last 10” record of 6-4.

A gallop to the playoffs? Still plenty of time, unless you are a team where potential is almost always greater than results. When your team is 33 of its last 80, a 67-95 win pace over 162 games, you have to see it’s a pipe dream and you’re smoking something illegal in that pipe. 

So, I’ll leave a subtle hint:

SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL

Now, on to my real article:

When you see a question like that in the title of this article, it usually means the answer you wouldn’t think would be true actually is.

Matt Reynolds is a former second round Mets draft pick who hit with little power and barely made the majors with the Queensites. 

He played a little more time with the Cardinals, and now he is in the international league for the Redbirds in AAA. 

We Mets fans all pretty much never got all too excited with Matt as a prospect, when he was one several years back. 

Time flies, as Mack knows. Now, Reynolds is 32. 

And he has a total of 475 MLB at bats, .229/.301/.326. 

Meh.

Ronny Mauricio, meanwhile, is our current hot prospect in AAA and we all want him called up. When??

“Now is OK, or do it tomorrow  -  we’ll begrudgingly settle for that.”

He is, to be clear, 10 years Matt’s junior, at age 22.

Through Sunday, R-Mo had been up 392 times in AAA in 2023 and was sporting a nifty enough .297/.344/.508 slash, with 56 RBIs.

Reynolds, meanwhile?

Up 320 times, 72 fewer PAs than Ronny Mo.

Slash of .297/.400/.599, 62 ribbies for Matty. .599?  Pretty powerful.

But the Cards are likely not calling him up, although he is hitting quantifiably better than Ronny Mo, the guy we all want to see called up RIGHT NOW!

The fact that Reynolds is pretty substantially outproducing Mauricio at the dish in 2023 should provide some perspective for the Mets’  call-em-up fanatic fans.

Since perspective is subjective, though, whaddya think, thou perceiver? 

Call up Ronny this week? Next week? This season? 

When he’s Reynolds’ age, 32? What?

To help your perspective…

R-Mo is 3rd in IL AAA at bats, 19th in HRs, 14th in RBIs, 3rd in doubles, 21st in average. Strong, Triple Crown stuff. Just .202 in June, .266 July.

And not sure where his 18 errors rank him in his league. Worst? Ouch.

Lastly…

The Syracuse Mets, for whom he is an everyday player, is 20 games out of first place, also for perspective. To be clear, I mostly blame their putrid record on the team’s putrid pitching.

TIDWELL TIDAL WAVE

Just a tidal wave of excellent outings for Blade Tidwell over the past roughly 3 months, including yesterday’s 5 inning, one hit, no run ball on Wednesday. Dude is simply crushing it. Few runs for a LONG time, buckets of strikeouts.

No one in the SAL wants to face Tidwell right now.

He might be the best, healthy pitcher in the Mets organization right now.

He ain’t ready for the Mets yet. Nevertheless…He’s TIDWELL TERRIFIC.

RETALIATE, YA WOOSIE

“I still wonder why we lead the league every year in getting hit by pitch,’’ Buck Showalter said prior to the game Wednesday.

Then Jeff  McNeil got drilled between the numbers at 96 MPH on his back, and he was clearly ticked off after being hit for the 13th time this season. Ron Darling said that in his entire career, he never hit anybody square in the number on the player’s back, unless it was intentional.

Buck Showalter is a fool. A woosie. A wimp. A girlie man.

Sometimes, you have to put aside your analytical side, “is it intentional or not?” and just freaking retaliate.

Man up, dude.

The Mets in 2021 were at or near baseball’s top in HBP.  (Look it up)

In 2022, they said the major league record in HBP. 

- Marte’s Sept HBP cost them the Division. 

- Which may have cost them a trip to the World Series.

In 2023, they sit at 69 HBP in just 101 games, and have a real shot at breaking that 2022 record. Pete’s June HBP may end up costing them the playoffs. It may also have cost him a real run at 60 HRs, plausible until the HBP.

Very, very simple, Bucko:

Just start hitting other players A LOT more, how? Just “suggest” to your pitchers to put on a good act to make it clearly look like it was unintentional, even when it isn’t, to avoid further retaliation, and I truly believe our Mets hitters will become less and less used for DAMAGING target practice. 

Jeff McNeil had one really bad hitting stretch in July in his 2022 batting title year - it was after a HBP. HBPs can adversely alter seasons. And, in Metsville, they have.

When you are the other team, and you’re facing Mets pitching, and your team’s hitters are getting nailed, it sends a message of danger. It could be interpreted as basically the Mets may be feeling enough is enough. 

And they have EVERY right to feel that way. 

You want the opposing pitcher think, “I want to throw a boring-in fastball high and tight, but if I hit this guy, they’re gonna retaliate, so I will be cautious, fearing for my teammates.

Or…you can continue to roll over and play dead.

MAN UP, BUCK. PROTECT YOUR GUYS. STOP BEING A WOOSIE.

Ernest Dove - DSL Mets Prospect Update: C Daiverson Gutierrez

During the January 2023 IFA signing period one of the prize signings for the Mets organization was 17-year-old Daiverson Gutierrez, listed as a catcher and signed for a reported 1.9 million. Gutierrez was immediately assigned to one of the two DSL teams, DSL Mets Orange, where he ended up playing a total of 19 games this season before a decision was made to transfer him to the alternate team, the DSL Mets Blue team. 

Gutierrez struggled out the gate slashing .134/.266/.179/.445 before the switch.  Through his first 15 games with DSL Mets Blue, he has slashed .255/.435/.340/.775 as he continues his first taste of pro ball this year.  Combined between the two teams he has a very respectable BB/K of 17/23 and is apparently the Mark Canha of the team, being hit by a pitch 10 times already. 

My source tells me the organization has been very pleased with his defense, making strides since working out during the offseason immediately after the signing, putting in work behind the scenes. The Mets were pleased with his overall showing during his brief time in the states training. There was deliberation but an ultimate decision to have him begin his career down in the DSL which based on current numbers appears to have been the right call. 

During a current 6 game span (7/18-7/25) Daiverson is 6 for 20 (.300) with 3 BB 5 K. I won’t say to ignore the box scores for any minor leaguers but feel it’s important to relay the messages I am getting of the organization liking what they are seeing from the very young talent. Player development as always will be the key.  The signs are reportedly there. The offense is starting to trend upwards, and the defense is making big strides month to month.  Fast forward July 2024 perhaps his slash lines are looking a lot different. 

Tom Brennan - Small Samples Can Be Deceiving: Nick Morabito Update

Nick Morabito is getting it D..O..N..E

Nick Morabito was the 75th overall pick in the 2022 draft. Lofty.

His 2022 small pro debut sample was not pretty…2 for 22, 14 Ks.

Visions of busted picks danced in my head.

But….small samples can be deceiving.

Onward to 2023 for the recently turned 20 year old outfielder.

He started out in the FCL going 10 for 51, no HRs, 4 RBIs.

So, I’m thinking at the time…12 for 73 to start his career?  Uh oh.

But…small samples can be deceiving.

On June 27, entering the game at .196, Nick picked up a hit. 

On June 28, a hit and RBI.

On June 30, 2 hits and an RBI.

OK, the Morabito Express was now fired up and cleared for take off.

JULY?  BLAST OFF!

22 for 46, 11 RBIs.

Do the July math… .478/.529/.696.

Wow.

Don’t tell me that’s a small sample.  No way.  

After all…

I now fully and logically expect Nick to be the majors’ first .478 career hitter when all is said and done in about 20 years.

That said… back to reality…

Promote Nick to St Lucie immediately is my advice. Man vs. boys.

RIP ROARING, RAGING, RAKING, RAMPAGING ROSA

18 year old DSL OF Jeffry Rosa, in his last 2 games?

6 hits: 

A single, 2 doubles, 3 HRs, 6 RBIs.

Now, in 89 at bats, .315, with 9 doubles, 12 HRs, 29 RBIs. Insane.

Ready for Queens, if you ask me.

We can skip him over 5 levels and right to the majors, can’t we?

Tom Brennan - the Absence-of-Edwin Factor

Ever so sorely missed.

Last year’s Mets pen was led by Sugar.

Edwin Diaz was MLB’s best reliever.

The Mets won 101 games last year in large part due to his 1.32 ERA and 32-35 in saves.

Plus his strikeout swagger, which emanated down through the pen.

The 2022 pen was 31-19, 3.55 ERA, with 41 of 56 saves, 10th in ERA, 4th in Ks.

The 2023 pen is 15-21, 4.20+ERA, WITH 23 of 35 saves,v20th in ERA, 24th in Ks.

Robertson, Ottavino and Raley have been the 2023 pen mainstays, allowing just 34 earned runs in 118 innings, a commendable ERA of 2.59.

The rest of the pen has allowed 129 earned runs in 231 innings, an unacceptable ERA of 5.03.

By this time in 2022, Edwin had thrown 42 innings, and at a 1.32 ERA rate, would have allowed 6 earned runs.

My guess is his 42 innings pushes out the 42 most marginal reliever innings of 2023, which probably totaled 26 earned runs at least. That would lower the entire pen ERA to about 3.65.

My guess also is his presence rather than theirs would have meant 5 to 7 more wins, so far. 

If so, this team would not be in sell mode. It would be amped up and all in.

Yes, the Edwin injury was a game-changer…and a season changer.

His absence has been pivotal.

RETALIATE

The Mets and their pitchers have often lived in Panseyville when their hitters are used as piñatas by opposing pitchers, with no payback.

Vientos hit on hand in 9th, then Alvarez nailed on the hand on the same pitch.  Pete’s similar hand injury in June no doubt aided and abetted their deep losing spiral. Last year, Marte’s similar hand injury led to the Braves winning the division by tie-breaker.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. RETALIATE. TODAY.

Reese Kaplan -- How Active Will Trader Billy Actually Be?

Normally at this time of the season the prospect of the subway series between both of New York's finest would be the predominating headline screaming out of every news article and on every broadcast.  

In 2023, however, neither team is operating as planned, post season plans are not being made for October games and the question of buyer or seller for both the Mets and the Yankees seems to be taking center stage.  While the Yankees are still north of the .500 mark, it's possible that their dreams of playoffs and beyond are not quite as desperate as those of the Mets.  Still, the fans, management teams and media covering Queens and the Bronx are all in a stick a fork in 'em kind of mood when it comes to the games on the NL and AL diamonds being played.

For the Mets, the question seems to have shifted from will they be buyers or sellers to what level of sellers do they expect to be?  Yes, the Mets are within a single digit trailing number when it comes to playoff baseball, but the fact is that they are performing far too erratically to bank on consistency for the final two months of the season.  Consequently everyone is now expecting a selloff to take place, but no one is quite sure to what extent.  

It is not that long ago in Mets history that a midseason trading gambit led to the quick dismissal of much of their roster during the 2017 season.  First came the deal sending away former homegrown antihero Lucas Duda.  Then came the out-of-town-ticket needed for reliever Addison Reed.  They were soon joined by outfielder Jay Bruce, infielder Neil Walker, and in a post-deadline trade in August so too was Curtis Granderson sent to the west coast.  That was five primary names gone from a team dismantling and hoping to grow in the future by loading up on minor league prospects, none of whom amounted to much of anything except (until this year) Drew Smith.

Fast forward a half dozen years and now it's entirely possible to see a similar exodus from the active roster that could include David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, Daniel Vogelbach, Carlos Carrasco and one of Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander.  Given the history of the money-saving going-out-of-business-sale the Wilpons conducted, nothing much was gained other than a partial season reduction in payroll.  This time around already the Mets have already dispatched Eduardo Escobar but in doing so paid down his salary which suggests that minor benefit won't happen with the 2023 Mets.  (And as long as we're reminiscing, a year after that major trade away of established players the Mets did the same with Asdrubal Cabrera, too.)

So the question remains, who is going?  How much will it cost to up the returns given in these trades?  Will it have an impact on the future Mets teams?  Will new-found vacancies on the roster open up playing time for current or recently residing-in-Syracuse Mets like Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos.  No one is coming to the ballpark for the next Mark Canha or Daniel Vogelbach at-bat.  Pitcher Carlos Carrasco has been far more bad than good.  None of those three will generate much in return unless their salaries are paid in full.  Robertson, Pham and the former Cy Young twins would all generate a ton of interest from contending teams, but neither Steve Cohen nor Billy Eppler are indicating that such movement is in the cards.

August 1st is on Tuesday next week.  Who here can project which players will remain with the team and which have been shown the departure door?  A lot of fear exists that a huge market for players is indicative of giving up for 2023, while others think it is time to think ahead to 2024 and beyond.  Right now the do-nothing agenda of the front office is doing the club no favors either way.  

Tom Brennan - Sell Big, Monsieurs et Madames? Rosa Yes, Ziegler No

If Tom Seaver were here today, he’d tell Steve Cohen to sell, 

and instead buy a vineyard in Napa Valley, “sans doute “

I am writing this in puzzlement and despair.

Maybe the 2023 Mets go on a tear, win almost every game remaining a la 1969 and 2015. Although seemingly going on a tear might have more to do with a hamstring than wins this year.

I still say this:

A fine team on paper going into 2023.

A lousy team on field during 2023.

Sell. 

Blow the team up. 

If you’re going to lose anyway, spend like Pittsburgh. 

Stockez-vous beaucoups des prospects magnifique.

OK, not great French. Get over it with a tasty soufflé.

Have a nice day, a belle jour, and enjoy the rest of your season.

Bonjour.

Au revoir.

But, of course, there are those who hold onto the faint hope that the Wild Card is Tres Attainable. 

And steadfastly maintain that those hopes are not a bunch of crepe.

Then, if that is vous, strap in, stay the course, remain hopeful, and wait until the off season for repairs and overhauls.

Let’s win a World Series, they plead.

That wine connoisseur Tom Seaver got us to two World Series, although reaching both highly unexpected. “One more such shocker, in 2023, and let’s raise glasses and have a champagne toast”, is what they wish.

Yogi said it ain’t over ‘til it’s over. 

Well, your Yoo Hoo is about to turn into Boo Hoo.

 Sorry, Yogi, it’s over - before it’s over.

Just keep in mind, with any sell-off involving pitching, that theSyracuse ERA is 5.75. In fact, the whole league is averaging around 5.30. Per Buck Showalter, the new way of calling strikes there in AAA has narrowed the strike zone to the point where pitchers only expect strikes if they are entirely over “the white”. Which clearly will lead to more hitting success.

And makes it harder, I’d think, to know who to call up to pitch, and even who to call up to hit when the International League has turned into the hitting equivalent of the Pacific Coast League, with recollections of the Mets’ days in Lost Wages, Nevada when the likes of Eric Campbell put up big but deceiving stats.

Billy and the boys will sort it all out this week back at the Ponderosa.

No doubt.

Bring in more Trevor Gotts, Billy.  He’s dynamite. Some just Gott it.

Guys not kept for 2023?

Seth Lugo, Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, and Trevor Williams? Remember them?

In 2023, they are a combined 40-25, 3.75. Who needs that, anyway? Suffering is far preferable.

JEFFRY ROSA

A 2022 S100,000 bonus 6’1”, 190 OF; in just 84 at bats in the DSL this year, he is hitting .300 with 8 doubles. 

Oh, I almost forgot to mention…ELEVEN HOME RUNS. 26 RBIs, too.

He didn’t grow up on a ball field. No, he grew up on a launch pad

AMAZING.

Less amazing, but for this organization not even the tiniest bit surprising, is this news, reported by Mike Mayer and seen by moi this morning, in METS TRADE RUMORS:

Mets pitching prospect Calvin Ziegler isn’t expected to pitch in 2023 after suffering a torn right quad, according to Mike Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link).  2023 becomes an entirely lost season for the 20-year-old, who had yet to pitch this year due to an elbow surgery to remove bone spurs.

THIS ORGANIZATION SURE KNOWS HOW TO LOSE PROSPECT PITCHERS FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON.

Tom Brennan - Simon Juan And Blade Tidwell Progress Updates

PROGRESS REPORT

One of the Mets’ biggest ($1.9 million) bonus recipients in recent years, signed in 2022, Simon Juan just turned 18 years of age 10 days ago.

So cut him slack.

OK, but…

He did not hit well at all in the DSL in his debut year in 2022. 

Everyone has to adjust, I suppose.

He started poorly this year a league higher in the FCL, then had a 7 for 15 stretch in June, jumping him briefly to .250.

Break through?

Not apparently, as he has gone just 3 for 27 since.

After 79 at bats, .203/.281/.278.

Wish there was better news to report there.

I know - cut him slack.

My recommendation is simple: to add 100 points to the batting average and on base %, and 200 points to the slugging %. 

How does he do that? I don’t know.

TIDWELL TERRIFIC

22 year old Blade Tidwell with Brooklyn has the 3rd highest Ks of any pitcher in the SAL, but the highest K/9 rate for any qualifying starter and the lowest BAA (.195). 7-3, 3.29 is nice, too. But nicer is his 5-0 record over his last several outings, in which he has allowed a scant 11 earned runs in 58 innings, (1.70), after allowing 17 earned runs in his first 18 innings this season. DRASTIC improvement over the last 58.

Looks like a real goodie. TIDWELL TERRIFIC.

Time for a promotion to AA.

My guess is he will join the NY Mets rotation around this time next year, unless he goes all “Doc Gooden” on us and does it sooner.