Mike's Mets - The Ground-Level Work

 

By Mike Steffanos

Can David Stearns build the deep, competitive 40-man roster that has eluded the Mets for so long?

Since the World Series ended, things have begun to heat up for the Mets. It kicked off with the news that Carlos Mendoza had been hired as the new manager, which became official at the news conference on November 14. On Friday of that week, we learned that the Mets had elected not to tender contracts to several of their eligible players: DH Daniel Vogelbach, Utitly Infielder Luis Guillorme, and relievers Trevor Gott, Jeff Brigham, and Sam Coonrod. Along with some of the moves made earlier in the month, the Mets 40-man roster is sitting at 28 players. We knew there would be massive changes to the team in David Stearns's first offseason calling the shots, and there certainly is plenty of roster room for those changes.

The only mild surprise in the non-tendered group was Luis Guillorme. Luis was a useful player over his six seasons with the Mets. He had a bad offensive season last year, although injuries limited Guillorme to only 120 PA. Luis has hit a combined .270/.359/.331 in just under 500 PA in the previous two seasons, with a 98 OPS+. That's just under league-average offensive production from a guy who could fill in quite well at all the infield positions, including shortstop. Gulliorme played most of this season at age 28 and was paid $1.6 million in his second year of arbitration eligibility.

My guess is that Stearns felt that Luis could be replaced for less money, which is certainly possible. What seems odd to me was picking up infielder Zack Short off of waivers earlier in the month and keeping him on the roster over Guillorme. I understand the math. Zack Short will cost less than Luis Guillorme. He made $700,000 last season and won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2026. Still, Short's offensive production with the Tigers was awful. Leo Morgenstern at MLB Trade Rumors had this to say about the young infielder when the Mets picked him up:

While his offense may never be a strength, Short draws walks well, and he can put his plus speed to work when he reaches base. Moreover, his defense might not stand out at any one position, but he is capable of covering second, third, and short, and even the outfield in a pinch. As long as he doesn't regress at the plate, his flexibility could earn him another shot at MLB playing time next season, especially since he is out of minor league options.

It doesn't exactly make you salivate over the potential, does it? In his "best" offensive season last year, Short had an OPS+ of 73, only 3 points higher than Luis Guillorme's acknowledged bad year. Neither Luis nor Short have minor league options remaining. If they had to keep one player, I'd have preferred Guillorme for a bit more offense and his defensive abilities. Then again, Short may be long gone, too, by the time Opening Day rolls around next season.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Tom Brennan: Mets’ Acuna: Next Luis Castillo? Mauricio's PAs. OUCH!

Acuna Photo: Ann-Marie Caruso, NorthJersey.com 

BEFORE THE ARTICLE DU JOUR:

David Stearns signs oft-injured and now ex-Yank Luis Severino ($13 million) and 2021 All Star Joey Wendle ($2 million). Good to see the real off-season acquisitions starting to roll. 

What think ye of those moves?

NOW, MY ARTICLE DU JOUR:

Mets fans remember Luis Castillo largely for his drop of an Alex Rodriguez pop up that put the final nail in the coffin of the Mets' season that year, in July as I recall. Swept and buried by a far superior Yankee team.

But little Luis was a heck of a MLB player.  Called up at age 20, he was mediocre his first 3 seasons, in which he had 580 at bats and hit .236.  In his last season, be was 58 for 247 (.235). 

In the 11 seasons in between, though, he hit .315 in nearly 5,700 at bats.  And in his entire career, he stole 370 bases and scored 1,001 runs.  He managed, though, just 28 HRs.

Little Luisangel Acuna is 5'8" but a beefier, more powerful 180.  

In 374 minor league games, he has stolen 158 bases, so in that respect, he and Castillo seem to have much in common.

He hit .294 in AA this year, with 9 HRs, and he is expected, unlike Castillo, to perhaps be a guy who can reach 20 HRs.  

He likely will fall well short of Castillo in batting average, and the Mets prospect website projects Acuna as a future .270 hitter.

He had a fine 84 game stint in AA this year while in the Houston organization, hitting .315/.377/.453.  

But, for whatever reason, unlike his fellow traded player, Drew Gilbert, who excelled post-trade in the final quarter of the season with Binghamton, Acuna's 37 post-trade games with Binghamton were tepid: 

.243/.317/.304, with just 2 HRs (both in one game) and 3 doubles.  

That .304 slugging # is a bit concerning to me. That is the stuff of Ruben Tejada.  It probably, and hopefully, was an anomaly. 

And just 2 singles in 14 post-season at bats. 

Those Binghamton numbers suggest he needs a good chunk of further minor league fine-tuning at the dish.

In all, he ended the full regular season of 121 games with 52 walks and 106 Ks, decent enough numbers, but walking far less than his fellow star prospect Jett Williams, who I rank above Acuna.

Acuna did have an excellent 57 of 67 in steals.  He combines good speed with apparently acute base stealing skills. His brother Ronald swiped 73, but it took him a lot more games (159) to do it, so Luisangel’s better steals per game give him family bragging rights.

(The two Acunas combined stole 130 base this year. The remarkable Rickey Henderson stole 130 all by himself in 1982.)

The Mets prospect page ranks Luisangel with 55 speed, 55 hit, 55 arm - and 50 power.  

It had him at 50 power, but Drew Gilbert at just 45 power, which to me makes no sense, since Gilbert to me clearly should be the better power hitter of the two.  

But they described Acuna as having an “explosive” bat.  It just didn't explode during his 37 Binghamton games. It did, however, go “poof”!  We'll see if and how it explodes in 2024.

He had just 8 errors in 92 games at SS, and 2 errors at 2nd, so he is already a stellar infielder.  Perhaps a future MLB Gold Glove?

I surmise he will slot in at 2B for the Mets when his bat is ready.

And that the far more error-prone Mauricio will slot in elsewhere, perhaps at 3B and/or the outfield.

And, if Francisco Lindor missed time due to injury, Acuna could slot over while he is out and likely provide stellar SS defense.

In conclusion, the Acuna/Castillo comparison falters as Castillo will be a higher career batting average guy than Acuna, and Acuna will have far more power.

Whether the Mets keep Acuna may depend on whether they feel he gives them the best chance to compete with the Braves, who happen to have his superior brother Ronald.  

Which is not an insult...Ronald is the best player in baseball.

I expect Luisangel will need most of 2024 in AAA to become MLB ready.  He will only turn 22 during spring training, so he may still make his Mets debut in 2024 at age 22 if much goes right for him.

It would be nice if the better comp for Luisangel turned out to be... 

the great Francisco Lindor.

His power will likely be less than Lindor, but his average and glove may be similar, and his stolen bases may exceed those of Lindor.  I'd like that.

How about you?

MUCHO MUCHO MAURICIO

On November 8, “David Stearns said that (Ronny) Mauricio will play some third base in the Dominican Winter League” (per Mike Puma of the New York Post report).  Where else, maybe some second, maybe some outfield, your guess is as good as mine.

I don’t know how much Ronny Mauricio will actually play winter ball this year; he may be starting play this week, as I write this.  Last fall and winter, he played there a whole lot, and played well, but a question: 

How many plate appearances did he compile this year so far, and last year?

If you guessed 1,384 PAs, perhaps you ought to buy a lottery ticket. 

That’s a whole lot of PAs. 

And it appears there are more PAs to come.

Which is good. 

After all, Ronald Acuna recently said: 

“….with more time on the field, I think a ballplayer can develop his abilities and can get better results, improve his style of game.”

Mauricio demonstrates he buys into that play-a-ton philosophy.  It worked for Pete Alonso in 2018, as he played 159 games in the minors and Arizona that year, followed by his massive 2019 rookie season. Too bad more Mets prospects don’t adopt that workaholic approach.  

Boys, the baseball biological time clock is ticking. Tick, tock, tick, tock.

I wonder if Luisangel Acuna will play some winter league ball. 

If not, why not?

THIS JUST IN: 

METS SIGN FOUR HITTERS COMFORTABLE WITH NY

 They look talented - whaddya think?

LASTLY:

Mets signed reliever Austin Adams. 

Not a good year in 2023. 

In 2021, a wild year…53 innings, just 28 hits, 74 Ks and…

TWENTY FOUR HIT BATSMEN!  Ouch!

Open Thread - Trio of Mets on the HOF ballot

MLB recently announced that three Met favorites will be on the ballot for the Hall of Fame.

David Wright was a seven-time all-star who is among the greatest to play the game in a Mets uniform.  His lifetime slash line was .296/.376/.491.  He holds a lifetime WAR of 49.2 and was a 2 time gold glove and 2 time silver slugger.  He holds Mets records for many categories, including hits, walks, HBP, total bases,  and RBI.

Jose Reyes was a four-time all-star with a NL batting title and was also a sliver slugger award winner.  His lifetime WAR was 37.4.  Among the most exciting Mets players to watch, Reyes holds Mets records for stolen bases, triples, and lead-off home runs.

Bartolo Colon earned most of his significant baseball accomplishments with other teams, but very quickly became a fan favorite with the Mets and recorded one of the all-time great Mets highlights when the comically-light hitting pitcher hit a home run on May 7, 2016 against another pitcher on the ballot, the Padres' James Shields.  "Big Sexy" finished his career with a 247-188 record, a 4.12 ERA, and 2,535 strikeouts.  Colon's 247 wins are the most among Latin American-born pitchers

It is tough to get in to the Hall Of Fame, and the two former Mets will be vying for the writers' votes with other very accomplished players.  Also newly on the ballot are players Adrian Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Adrián González, José Bautista, Brandon Phillips, Victor Martinez, and James Shields.

How many ballots do you think it will take to get Wright, Reyes, and Colon in?

Reese Kaplan -- More Prospective Bullpen Help for the Mets (2 of 2)

It seems that nearly every year since the franchise began in 1962 you hear the familiar refrain that "this year we're going to have to do something about the bullpen!"  Well, after the losing season in 2023 and the departures of both Adam Ottavino and David Robertson once again the Mets have relief pitching on their to-do list.  Monday we started looking at prospective support pitching choices.  Now it's time to continue that examination, again putting productivity and age somewhat ahead of being strictly for youth as they are seeking to do to fulfill other positional needs.

Who's in the Next Group of Bullpen Prospects?

Lefty reliever Andrew Chafin seemingly has been on the Mets lips as a potential late innings guy for the last several years but he's never made it to work in Queens.   At age 34 he's hitting the latter stages of a pitching career, but the numbers don't lie when it comes to his ability.  Coming off a bad 2023 split between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, Chafin might become a little more affordable.  

For his career he owns a 3.40 ERA with better than a strikeout per inning pitched.  His control is not stellar but he's been able to withstand the 3.7 walks per 9 IP.  He was earning $5.5 million last season and likely will see that drop a bit for his new employer.

Young right hander Jordan Hicks broke into the National League for the Cardinals at the ripe old age of 21.  Now 27, he's got a career ERA of 3.85 with his season ending mark of 3.29.  What's truly impressive is his over 11 Ks per 9 IP mark though he's holding only a 2:1 ratio over the number of walks given in the same span.  The arm is quite live but there is the issue of control to consider.  Still, at his young age and modest salary of a tick over $1.8 million for the season that just ended.  

John Brebbia may not be a household name having spent his career with the Cardinals and Giants, but as he hits free agency he's definitely worth a look.  Now turning 34 he's delivered a career ERA of just 3.42 while exhibiting outstanding control for striking out hitters and limiting the number of bases on balls.  

His 2023 work was a little less stellar than other years, but at an ending salary of just $1.15 million he should definitely be a step up from some of the outgoing or already gone hurlers who did little to support the starting pitchers.  

Big righthander Robert Stephenson has had a somewhat mediocre career but might be turning into something of a late bloomer.  With a career ERA of an unspectacular 4.64 you have to look at recent accomplishments to decide if he's turned the corner.  In the past two years of 2022 and 2023 he has brought his ERA down to 3.38 after a midyear move from the Rockies to the Pirates and then the following year ended at just 3.10.  

If it was a hot week or a hot month you might write it off, but it's been now a year and a half showing good productivity and excellent control.  Turning 31, his ending salary was just $1.75 million.  Food for thought.

Young lefty Jovani Moran debuted and struggled in 2021 but rebounded in 2022 over 31 games for the Twins and was excellent, sporting an ERA of just 2.21 while fanning over 12 per 9 IP.  The control was not great but not awful.  Unfortunately he became a free agent after a very poor 2023 season and as such is yet another roll of the dice.  

At 27 years of age and being a southpaw he might be worth a gamble, but on the other hand the club has dismissed pitchers who could not measure up to one excellent year.  His ending salary was $726K and might be worth some consideration hoping Jeremy Hefner can help him rediscover what was working so well just a year prior.

While the former Brewer and Rockie Brent Suter may pronounce his name the same way as a Chicago Cubs Hall of Famer, his pitching is not that far off from what Bruce did in the majors.  While serving as a support reliever, this Suter has a career ERA of just 3.49 while winning nearly twice as many as he's lost.  He's not a strikeout specialist but he keeps the ball in and around the zone to limit the free passes.  Going into his age 34 season his last salary was a modest $3 million.  He's sefinitely someone that POBO David Stearns should have on his short list.

A blast from the past is long ago NY Met Michael Fulmer who was traded to the Tigers in the 2015 pursuit of a World Series title by acquiring Yoenis Cespedes.  That deal helped both clubs as Fulmer went on to win Rookie of the Year while Cespedes carried the Mets on his back towards October baseball.  Fulmer was a productive starting pitcher until injuries curtailed him and he was asked to reinvent himself as a relief pitcher.  Think Dennis Eckersley.  

He missed all of 2019 on the IL and then ended his starting pitching career poorly in 2020.  Since then he's appeared in as many as 67 games in a season and been a reliable reliever.  Now that he's a free agent he might be worth a reunion with the club that developed him.  His 2023 salary was $4 million and after a mediocre year for the Cubs he might sign for less particularly if it's for more than a single season.  

The San Francisco Giants were the unfortunate recipients of the one bad season Scott Alexander has provided during his professional career.  With a career ERA of just 3.29 the left hander is certainly going to find plenty of suitors.  The fact that he's not a strikeout guy is going to hurt him, but his stellar control will help.  With an ending salary of just $1.2 million there should be a long line of prospective employers interested in Mr. Alexander.

Going in the exact opposite direction is former Minnesota Twin hurler Emilio Pagán who had one of his best ever seasons in 2023 as he entered free agency.  Having played for 5 teams in a 7 year career doesn't sound like he's the solution to a team's bullpen problem, but a career ERA of 3.71 with strikeout ability and great control, he's someone on many teams' radar.  His last salary was $3.5 million and based upon a good 2023 he'll likely approach $5 million per year on a multiyear deal.

Big lefty Will Smith has been in the majors for 11 years already and delivered quality bullpen work.  He can strike people out and owns a better than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  The issue with Smith is going to be what is a proper salary.  For a career 3.67 ERA he's decent but not outstanding yet he had driven his salary up to as high as $13 million before plummeting to a $1 million deal.  Expect he will probably get $6 million or more per season as he enters his age 35 season.  Other lefties are less expensive but don't have as long a track record.

Pitching for the Rays, Marlins and Astros over the past seven years, Ryne Stanek owns a career 3.45 ERA with with a very strong arm and mediocre control.  He's not expensive having earned $3.6 million and would likely be appealing to many clubs who need bullpen help.  

A kind of bonus and unexpected name to see on this list is career superstar relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel.  He's seemingly been around forever and will likely have a plaque in Cooperstown when he finally hangs up his cleats, but for now he's still pitching at the latter end of his impressive career.  He owns a winning record, a career ERA of just 2.40 and he has saved 417 games while maintaining a WHIP of under 1 baserunner per inning pitched.  

For the Phillies last season he split closing duties and still got 23 more on his total.  His ERA jumped to a still palatable 3.17.  Maybe it's time to think of him as John Franco with Edwin Diaz being Armando Benitez.  Kimbrel's ending salary was $10 million for the Phillies and if he's no longer closing at age 37 then it's unlikely he will draw the same salary again.  However, even if he did, he's the new David Robertson but even better.  Maybe he's worth a long talk with David Stearns.

So there you have it...quite a few capable relief pitchers who only cost money to sign and not assets to trade.  Who is in your bullpen for the Mets? 

Tom Brennan: Fangraphs Mets Prospects; "Draft Miss" Tidbits

 

"HEY! WHERE'S MY GUY ON THIS LIST?"

Before I start:

Rumors, I've heard a few

But then again, too few to mention

OK, TO THE ARTICLE…

Fangraphs is a truly impressive website. 

It has SO much data on all teams.

It actually ranks many dozens of prospects for all 30 minor league teams, including the Mets.

Interestingly, in one of its data troves, it ranks the prospects in overall MLB order.

So, for instance, a Brennan favorite, Rhylan Thomas, is not in Fangraphs' MLB Top 100... or 200... or 300... or 400 ...or 500 ...or 600.  

Nope, he is # 603.

But, since there are 30 teams, divide that 603 by 30 and he is a top 20 prospect on an average MLB team.  Which is close to where I have him after his fine, first, full season, hitting .328 with solid defense.  

Paul Articulate's guy, JT Schwartz?  They have JT at MLB # 758!  

But, divide by 30 and you get #25 on an average MLB team's prospect list.  Pretty fair ranking, I'd say.

Both should climb in 2024. But Schwartz is not (yet) grading out as a Pete alternative.

Scary on this list, if you are a Mets maniac, is Kevin Parada. Fangraphs has him all the way down at #1003.  Divide that by 30 and you get a 33rd overall prospect for your average MLB team, which likely means that his defense and high K rate of concern to Fangraphs rankers.  

Not at all where you want the 11th overall draft pick of 2022 to find himself on this baseball-wide list.

I personally like Quick Nick Morabito a lot, but they only have him at #1,427, which is 48th in an average top 50.  Fangraphs, while wonderful, can make mistakes, is my guess!  Kidding aside, I expect Nick the Quick to jump 1,000 slots in the next 12 months. 

There are also inexplicably some bloopers in their list (e.g., DJ Stewart, Baty and Vientos, and others who are now gone, are in it.).  I think this tells me the list I accessed was last updated right after the July 31 trade deadline, at least that is my guess.  

Tomas Nido is listed as the Mets' 102nd "prospect", an unenviably poor ranking!  (Likely, he was included on the list in the first place because he was in the minors in August). So, you Nido lovers may wish to chew on that dismal assessment for a bit.

Joander Suarez was 93 slots above Nido, at #12, so that is interesting.

Joey Lucchesi # 82 round? No respect at all for 4-0, 2.89 as a Met Joey.

Fangraphs’ list also excludes recent draft picks, so the list clearly needs updating.  I imagine they will do so soon enough, and when they do, I will pass that list along - if I remember to look for it.

Of course, adding the draftees in would push Nido to # 110 or lower.

Anyway, here is an excerpt of a few columns from the top 105 Mets on their list.  The list was longer, but I stopped there.

Column B is the overall MLB rank in their database.  

Column A is my calculated rank, where I divided their ranking by 30 to get what would be a Mets-only ranking (highlighted cells were their highlights, not mine).

Whaddya think of the extracted list?

A	B	C
1	18	Luisangel Acuña
1	24	Ronny Mauricio
2	45	Jett Williams
4	108	Drew Gilbert
5	157	Dominic Hamel
8	227	Ryan Clifford
8	234	Blade Tidwell
9	261	Christian Scott
9	282	Jeremiah Jackson
10	308	Brandon McIlwain
10	313	Rowdey Jordan
12	355	Joander Suarez
12	357	Wilfredo Lara
12	359	Tyler Stuart
14	434	Danny Mendick
15	451	Carlos Cortes
16	481	Paul Gervase
17	508	Mark Vientos
17	520	Mike Vasil
18	545	Nate Lavender
19	565	Luke Ritter
19	574	Felipe De La Cruz
20	603	Rhylan Thomas
20	610	Jacob Reimer
21	618	Jonathan Araúz
21	619	Alex Ramírez
24	707	Wyatt Young
25	758	JT Schwartz
26	769	Matt Rudick
26	776	Saul Garcia
26	778	Stanley Consuegra
26	789	William Lugo
27	813	Jose Peroza
28	838	Douglas Orellana
29	873	Junior Tilien
33	1003	Kevin Parada
35	1057	Robert Colina
36	1073	Wilkin Ramos
38	1141	Marco Vargas
38	1153	Kevin Villavicencio
40	1189	Daniel Juarez
40	1205	Trey McLoughlin
42	1250	Mateo Gil
42	1253	Justin Jarvis
45	1342	Luis Moreno
45	1363	Layonel Ovalles
47	1404	Brendan Hardy
48	1427	Nick Morabito
48	1430	DJ Stewart
49	1472	Benito Garcia
51	1544	Joe Suozzi
52	1569	Ronald Hernandez
53	1591	Jefrey De Los Santos
54	1614	Yeral Martinez
56	1667	Cameron Foster
57	1722	Jordany Ventura
59	1759	Brett Baty
63	1879	Dylan Tebrake
63	1894	Eric Orze
64	1907	Jimmy Loper
66	1967	Vincent Perozo
66	1978	Yohairo Cuevas
66	1994	Eli Ankeney
70	2094	Tyler Thomas
70	2110	Nolan Clenney
70	2114	Jace Beck
71	2126	Karell Paz
71	2134	Joshua Cornielly
74	2215	Josh Walker
76	2275	Coleman Crow
77	2317	Hunter Parsons
82	2474	Joey Lucchesi
83	2494	Jordan Geber
84	2516	Jaylen Palmer
86	2593	Dedniel Núñez
87	2612	Drake Osborn
87	2622	Michael Perez
90	2705	Diego Mosquera
93	2793	Ernesto Mercedes
93	2802	Yonatan Henriquez
96	2889	Omar De Los Santos
96	2893	Candido Cuevas
99	2973	Jesus Baez
99	2976	Reed Garrett
99	2984	William Woods
101	3037	D'Andre Smith
102	3062	Tomás Nido
104	3127	Willy Fanas
105	3135	Wilson Esterlin
105	3143	Andinson Ferrer

DRAFT TIDBITS FROM  TIMES PAST:

As my next subject today, in 2008, Mets drafted Javier Rodriguez 68th overall, and he never got past Low A. 

# 96 that draft year? Craig Kimbrel.  You know, the guy who is 49-42, 2.40, 417 saves, 1,192 career Ks in 757 career innings.

The # 100 selectioncwas strikeout-prone Kirk Nieuwenhuis. 

No doubt, the Mets definitely pick Kimbrel at # 100, if he’d slipped by the Braves…right?

After all, their love for power draft arms shows no bounds (sarcasm here).

Maybe the Mets will sign the 36 year old Kimbrel for their pen this year. 

I vote YES. Steve Brennan is all in for Kimbrel.

The fact that he hit 12 opposing batters in 190 innings over the past 3 years makes me want him more, frankly. 

Toughness is valuable. 

And Kimbrel is tough.

Also, the Fangraphs prospect ranking above has previous year 5th rounder d’Andre Smith as the Mets’ #101. 

101 is better than 201, I suppose, but not meaningfully. 

101 objectively is not good. Tells me he is a MLB long shot.  

Heck, they have him ranked below extreme K machine speedy hitters Jaylen Palmer and Omar De Los Santos. The latter 2, in 2022 and 2023, fanned 625 times in 434 games. 

Palmer, though, was a 22nd rounder in 2018, a worthwhile gamble in that round - fine tools, and flaws in the tools sometimes can be fixed.

D’Andre Smith was drafted by the Mets in round 5 instead of a “112 steals Cardinal with 80 speed” named Victor Scott, a subject I discussed several days ago.  For that draft pick, folks excused the Mets’ pass as “the draft is a crap shoot, it happens.” I call it horrible decision making, the same sort of bad calls that had them pass on the great Craig Kimbrel 15 years ago. 

You have a guy available with 70/80 grades, you pick him.

Repeat after me: 

Draft Power Arms, Power Bats, Power Speed. 

Skip guys without those attributes in early rounds.